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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 1-29-2019
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Aaron
4:40
Steamer is seeing a pretty significant step forward for Kepler.  Fangraphs auction calc has him as a $18 FGpts player.  You buying that at all?
Brad Johnson
4:40
Oh no
Not at all
4:41
He's a $1 player who you could go up to maybe $5 on if you want to manage his matchups carefully
There's breakout potential, but there's also a lot of weirdness in the profile
Tony
4:42
Would you rather Jacob DeGrom or Stanton if it meant that you could focus your draft on hitting
Brad Johnson
4:42
Probably DeGrom?
Depends on context
I'm really in on buying Stanton shares this year
Actually, I say that
I haven't actually succeeded in acquiring any Stantons yet
4:43
I've tried
JD
4:43
$38 Seager or $25 Ohtani Fgpts?
Brad Johnson
4:43
For 2019, push. For lifetime, Ohtani.
Not All Who Wander Are Franco
4:43
Roughly translating Ohtani questions to auction format. 12-team keeper league, $260 (27 players), keep 5. What's Ohtani worth this year if he's up for auction and is hitter+pitcher eligible for future?
**meant roto format, not auction format re: Ohtani
Brad Johnson
4:44
I'd be comfortable going up to $19. After that, it becomes situational
John B
4:44
What $ cap would you have for Trout this year in FG Points?
Brad Johnson
4:44
Again, that's very situational.
4:45
Ideally, you're paying in the $60s for him. He should be kept at anything under $150.
Not necessarily by you.
But a rebuilding team should be happy to trade like a $3 Nick Pivetta for $150 Trout. That's 3 big rebuilding pieces post-draft.
4:46
People overestimate the ease of buying rebuilding pieces via the draft.
It can only be done reliably for $1 or $2 and that's no way to rebuild
You need to gather premium expensive assets and convert them into premium cheap assets
4:47
And this must all be done in one season or else the arbitration process will ruin everything.
You have to be able to hide your $3 Juan Soto so he only gets bid up $3.
Uncle Chips
4:48
Keep forever, OBP League.  Need to select 2/3 from Corey Seager, Merrifield and Mo Swipes Adalberto Mondesi.  What to do?
Brad Johnson
4:48
This is difficult because Mondesi is an OBP killer
But could still outperform the other pair
4:49
Can you trade? If so, deal Merrifield. He value is peaked.
I'm tempted to say the keeps are Seager and Mondesi because of the keep forever component
They're both very young
Aaron
4:49
Back to the Kepler question, if you owned him on the cheap right now are you still tossing him back and trying to redraft for $1?
Brad Johnson
4:49
Not necessarily
depends on the state of my budget
Slurve
4:49
How often do you flip a recently acquired player from a trade into something more "valuable" than your initial traded player?
Brad Johnson
4:50
I don't want to brag and say I do it all the time... but I generally trade for the purposes of trading again.
4:51
It's unusual for me to have needs so I'm usually just speculating and diversifying
And that helps me not have needs in the future
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