You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Brad Johnson Baseball Chat 1-30-2018
powered byJotCast
Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page
McD
3:50
How do you account for expected inflation? First year of keepers with a new system (kept indefinitely, inflation assigned by arbitration) and I'm expecting inflation to be big (~25%). Guys who are expensive, but not a keeper value wise (e.g. Machado with a salary $3 above his FG auction value), but become great values once you factor in that big inflation. But, if you did that for everyone, the inflation rate drops a bunch, since you're doling out more salary than value.
Brad Johnson
3:51
So when considering players between their actual and inflated cost, I look for a few things
1. Are they elite - I keep those
2. range of likely outcomes
3. Alternatives/Opportunity cost
3:52
So yea, I'm probably keeping a $45 Machado but not keeping a $20 Polanco
That's actually a real scenario on one of my teams. Now they know.
Jim-Bob
3:52
Fast forward to May 1. Who's the odd man out in Milwaukee: Thames, Santana, Braun?
Brad Johnson
3:52
Whoever got hurt
Or else it's a very large rotation
Merv Throneberry
3:53
Mixed opinions about Zack Godley in my keeper league - am about to trade him straight up for Ozzie Albies (both are $4 in a 22 player $130 league). Who's your daddy?
Brad Johnson
3:53
I love Godley. That's still a fine swap.
Never hurts to get long term positional value for a pitcher
Gavin
3:53
Correa listed among 2018 HR/FB decliners today. Do you buy it?
Brad Johnson
3:54
Sure, but even that decline included a good home run total.
John Doe
3:54
Do we think Braun is moving to 1B? If so, is Eric Thames value kaput? Really liked that Thames/Aguilar platoon
Brad Johnson
3:55
Not really. I think they're trying to figure out how to best shuffle their assets while getting them reps. If they want Domingo to play some, getting Braun starts at 1B over Aguilar makes sense.
Then the rare off days for Cain/Yelich can also work them all into the lineup
Aguilar loses big, but you don't go out of your way to play a guy like him
John Doe
3:56
What's going on with Jean Segura? His sprint speed last year was pretty slow, getting slower. He is not that old, but he seemed to gradually decline in 2017.
Brad Johnson
3:56
He had injuries
That said, I'm not counting on many steals
normie daniels
3:56
you still keep conforto at $1 right?
Brad Johnson
3:56
yep, unless he's bumping a better keeper
Cubs Fan (clearly)
3:56
OBP Keeper League (12 team, One C, $260) Is Wilson Contreras a good value @$14?
Brad Johnson
3:56
Very good
Like a $25 catcher
oh wait, that's 2 C
3:57
Maybe more like $20
John Doe
3:57
Saw Pod's HR/FB rate decliners - Matt Olson obviously was inflated, but does the xHR/FB rate discourage you at all? Does the juiced ball make you discount HR/FB rates in the MiLB?
Brad Johnson
3:58
Like Pod, I'm more concerned with FB/GB rates than HR/FB rate. I'll use a scouting report to learn if a guy has pop and the ability to get to it in games.
I wrote about Olson a couple weeks ago. Came away with a positive impression if not quite as high as his current ADP
Royalty
3:58
Any chance Moustakas signs in MIL? The draft cost is almost a non-issue after the Cain deal.
Brad Johnson
3:58
Pretty close to zero
Travis Shaw is a better player
FreeAgentsGalore
3:58
Are you sold on Albies in a 10 team league?
Brad Johnson
3:59
Sure, but that's shallow enough that you can ignore 2B entirely, assuming you don't land Altuve
so many good 2B
CW
3:59
$30 Rendon in otto 5x5?
Brad Johnson
3:59
Not sure, might be between his actual and inflated value
Connecting…