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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 10-23-2018
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Jim
4:22
Ottoneu question, is Bumgarner at $35 a good deal?
Brad Johnson
4:22
No
I'm not saying you automatically cut him - that's situational
But it's not a "good" valuation. There's almost no chance you profit
4:23
Even vintage Bumgarner was only a $35-45 pitcher
And we're probably not getting him back.
2018 Bumgarner was what? $8-12 over a full season?
That's just a guess, I haven't looked at EoS values yet
Iggy Pop's Raw Power
4:24
Focusing on steals more than a little is a fragile strategy because so few stealers contribute in other categories.  A home run is a 3-category event -- HRs don't just correlate with R and RBI, they are included.  Power is cheaper also.
Brad Johnson
4:24
I do like to let steals be the final piece of the puzzle unless I notice early in a draft that they're undervalued
Reardon
4:24
Much was made about Arizona's humidor - how did it work this year?
Brad Johnson
4:24
It was exactly as run suppressant as hypothesized
4:25
according Alan Nathan and others
Jim
4:25
In your experience, what is the best way to create Ottoneu valuations?
Brad Johnson
4:25
Mine are exceptionally custom. I don't share them. Publicly available ones via the Slack community or FG Auction Calc are good enough.
4:26
A big reason I don't share mine is that they're specifically designed for my playing style. Anybody else would call them broken.
Joey
4:26
Why didn't the Reds same some money and just tell Votto he's also managing now?
Brad Johnson
4:27
I like it! I can't wait for team to have six or eight two-way players and player managers
DynastyStarter
4:27
You have a specific way to value players for a start up dynasty where guys can be kept with no penalty, but are drafted via auction? Seems like that format would really skew standard auction dollar values...
Brad Johnson
4:27
That'll depend on league depth and keeper totals
4:28
But yes, the general strategy would be to go in VERY aggressive and plan to be extremely stars and scrubs
then win the waiver wire to patch up your scrubby late picks
Muncy et al
Flip
4:28
You’ve written before about your experience playing in dynastyish leagues. Do you ever find these leagues, over time, increasingly challenging to make trades in? I’m assuming it’s because, over time, owners naturally acquire players they value more than everyone else in the league, and don’t revisit/change their evaluation as often as they should (i’m certainly guilty of this). Do you think this is more a bug or a feature of  dynasty leagues?
Brad Johnson
4:29
I find it's MUCH easier to trade in dynasty leagues than all other formats
I also find that I ruin some trade relationships because I'm very adversarial and not everybody takes that well
That's when I tell my co-manager to take over trading for a year
You should have a co-manager in deep dynasties
Chris B
4:30
Need a SS for 2019, and available players in my 14team OBP 5x5 are Escobar, Semien and Taylor for similar trade costs.  Which one is the one to trade for?
Brad Johnson
4:30
Yunel Escobar
I mean!
Alcides
4:31
I'd actually go Semien. He's the only one I'm sure will play consistently.
Barring injury
If the DBacks don't rebuild, I assume Escobar is a frequently used back up. Taylor's also in for utility work again. And he declined enough this year that not starting on a team like the Dodgers adds up.
4:32
Here's me on the DBacks re-signing Escobar: https://www.patreon.com/posts/22231329
Mikey
4:32
I am in my first Ottoneu offseason, any tips? How much money should I plan on bringing to the auction?
Brad Johnson
4:33
That is HIGHLY dependent on the cut of your roster
I recommend joining ottoneu Slack or my Baseball A Team Discord
Both are great places to discuss this stuff in detail with people who know what they're doing
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