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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 10-30-2018
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Brad Johnson
3:52
We'll get started in a bit. Until then, a little self-promotion.
3:55
I'm doing custom fantasy games for my patrons this offseason. Future contests will have a prize of $50. This month's contest is a simple Qualifying Offer Game with a $10 prize. There's currently only a few entrees so a new $1/mo patron has a really decent chance to come out ahead.
I also announced the first patron fantasy league, a 20 team dynasty that will begin slow drafting in December. Details are still up for discussion.
3:56
On a completely different note, I began a free agent analysis series with a look at catchers.
Reardon
4:02
Appreciate the FA analysis series! When it comes to fantasy, how do you see catchers shaking out? Realmuto....and then?
Brad Johnson
4:05
As of now, I think I'm still tossing the dice on big home run totals from Gary Sanchez. I'll also try for a rebound Contreras. Maybe a cheap Posey if he's falling to a dollar. In general, I'm looking to go budget with guys like Ramos, Perez, Zunino, Narvaez, Cervelli, Chirinos, Suzuki, and Yadi.
Maybe people overreact to Grandal's postseason, but I doubt it
Reardon
4:06
For fantasy, how do you see the younger catchers doing for 2019? Mejia, Barnes, Jansen have all shown flashes, Alfaro got a ton of time, Kiner-Falefa's still C eligible?
Brad Johnson
4:06
Barnes is deceptively not young
fwiw
4:07
Jansen and Mejia both have some pretty serious upside, but they'll probably cost more than a bunch of a boring veterans who are likely to outperform them
kevinthecomic
4:07
Where are we expecting lack of positional depth in 2019?  C seems obvious, but 3B, 2B and SS seem DEEP, especially compared to 5 years ago.
Brad Johnson
4:08
1B is the only position with any kind of scarcity - besides the black hole of C and aces
closers could be a deeply weird position again
4:09
There's no predicting how the reliever market will work out
Aroldis Chapman lost his job...
joe
4:09
in an nl only, i have talion ($20) and flaherty ($21) as keepers.  Are those guys good enough to top my rotation or is it worth it to still get a scherzer who may cost $40?
Brad Johnson
4:09
I think for NL only those are reasonable "aces"
4:11
I also don't think it's a terrible idea to add Scherzer too. Assuming you can swallow spending $81 on your top 3 pitchers. Doing this kind of depends on an obvious path to dominating the pitching categories. If other rivals are already in a better position to win those categories, you may want to choose a different path to victory.
Slurve
4:11
Are you generally a ceiling (Higher risk/reward) or floor (safe/consistent) guy in drafting prospects?  how about veterans?   any personal trends?
Brad Johnson
4:12
It's all very context dependent. I want a diversified portfolio in general, although I'll also consider what I need.
4:13
If we're mid-draft and my roster is in some trouble, I'll start going high variance in the hopes of catching some good fortune. If I'm crushing, then I might go boring in a spot or three.
In any kind of trading league, it's important to remember that it's very hard to trade boring for fair value. And it's very easy to talk someone into an overpay for anything shiny
So I do make a point of getting some shiny stuff
Trent
4:14
Who are your top 3-5 catchers for next year?
Brad Johnson
4:14
Realmuto, Sanchez, uh
Honestly, Ramos might be third depending on team/role
Contreras is in the mix for third too
4:15
then it gets a little sloppy into the Grandal, Molina, Suzuki, Perez, and maybe Jansen group
I'm probably missing somebody, I hope I am
oh, right, we have to see what's what with Posey
Ken
4:15
Are you de-valuing Dodgers' players slightly at all for 2019?  Their depth and platoon proclivities make it hard to expect a full season of ABs from most of them.
Brad Johnson
4:16
de-valuing isn't how I'd describe it
Yes, I expect more off days which can be a pain in the ass if you don't have a lot of bench to work with
4:17
But I also expect those players to be better per PA than they otherwise would be
It's more of an issue with their starting pitchers imo
Jeff
4:17
Do you see any top-flight SP getting moved this offseason? Paxton, Greinke, Carlos Martinez all have had a least a little noise around them
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