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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 10-9-2018
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Brad Johnson
5:16
In AdBlock world, you need to design your site around no ads
Which basically means a subscription or pay-to-play features
5:17
I'm experiencing my own learning experience with Patreon. People aren't really that keen to pay money to read articles because there are so many free substitutes. So I'm trying to scale up the pay-to-play side with reader leagues, discord, unique fantasy games, swag, etc.
5:18
The Athletic is taking the other approach. If they can buy enough of the quality content in sports news, they can almost force some people to pay them
And it convinces their rivals to follow a similar model
5:19
Which reduces the supply of free content to the point where people maybe actually will pay
But...
Here's the wrinkle. I foresee a squeeze in the future when The Athletic's largesse turns into profit seeking
5:20
They're paying too many writers too much money.
So, having killed some of the places their writers would otherwise write, they're either going to fix wages or start cutting them
5:21
They're not FanGraphs. They don't have a benevolent Dark Overlord.
They're profit seekers.
They'll maximize their subscriber base and then they'll minimize their costs once they decide new subscribers are too expensive to purchase
Open up and say "Aardsma"
5:21
The Athletic will eventually go the newspaper staffing model in that the top clicked writers remain on the payroll, but freelancers end up covering much of the ground.
hscer
5:21
(to be clear "Just Sa No" was a reference to the Sano sleeper question, not a typographically errant rejection of the Athletic concept)
Brad Johnson
5:22
(that was not clear, thanks)
Reardon
5:22
Are Athletic writers paid on a commission for the number of subs they get?
Brad Johnson
5:22
No
Matt
5:22
I will say that The Athletic is most worth it if you're a hockey fan. There is no Frangraphs for hockey, and every national and local publication has scaled their hockey coverage way back (which might make sense as a business decision, but sucks as a fan). The Athletic has filled that void and then some. The baseball/basketball/football coverage is a bonus. I still like reading stuff by Eno, too.
Neal
5:23
Man, labrum injuries are scary. I learned my lesson with Michael Brantley. But if you can sit on him for a year, Jesse Winker was looking pretty studly before he went down. What are your thoughts?
Brad Johnson
5:23
I'm so sad about his injury.
I'm also worried about the recovery time, but he was about half a month from really reaching critical mass with the fantasy mainstream
5:24
so if you own him in a keeper and the opportunity cost isn't too high, you're probably stuck hoping he rebounds cleanly
Galileo
5:24
Is Kyle Tucker going to have a spot out of spring training next year, or will he get yoyo-ed up and down?
Brad Johnson
5:24
I think he'll have a chance to earn a spot with Tony Kemp taking it if Tucker doesn't own Spring Training
Frankly, Kemp not starting is one of the great injustices of the 2018 season
5:25
He's a top 40? outfielder
Maybe 50?
He's damned good
(for our purposes, not quite that exceptional in reality)
StewZilla
5:25
Mondesi worth $11 as a 4-5 year contract in my auction league?  And what to make of Voit and Mallex for next year?
Brad Johnson
5:26
Yes.
Sure, he might completely zero out on you, but $11 is well worth that risk when $30-$40 upside is in play.
There's a lot to be scared about in his profile
5:27
I'm buying Voit and Mallex too
Open up and say "Aardsma"
5:27
I mean is there enough offseason interest to pay a permanent beat writer for the Brewers, Royals, Padres, etc.?
Brad Johnson
5:27
I couldn't say tbh
Reardon
5:27
Mondesi feels so much like Buxton - is Buxton worth $11 on the hope of his $30-$40 upside?
Brad Johnson
5:27
Entering this season, I would have said absolutely yes
5:28
I still think the answer is maybe yes.
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