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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 11-28-2017
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Brad Johnson
2:55
Hey folks, I'll start with a couple from the queue than switch back to real time. If we're short on questions, I'll go back to the queue.
Jim
2:56
Trade Rizzo for Ohtani in an OBP dynasty if I️ have Bryant/Arenado/Bellinger/Hoskins for 1B/3B/CI?
Brad Johnson
2:56
I know the Ohtani hype is big, but I would not trade for him at this point.
2:57
To me, his unique profile just reads as risk, and some sites are talking about treating him as two players - far from ideal for roster management
Moreover, Ohtani at his very best is probably comparable to Rizzo. You'd be taking on a ton of downside.
Tim
2:57
I feel like Robbie Ray is one of the more divisive pitchers heading into 2018. Where do you fall on him for next year?
Brad Johnson
2:58
There's some volatility there, but I figure he's in the second tier of aces with guys like Yu Darvish.
weezy
2:58
How did you make the leap from friends' redraft league to where you are now? And what was the most rewarding escalation for you? For example, was the first full dynasty league the most fun you have had with fantasy?
Brad Johnson
3:00
I think it started about 10 years ago with me trying to make a better fantasy league for a Phillies forum. Basically 5x5 with OPS and unlimited keepers at draft price +$7. I still have two leagues with those general keeper parameters
I won or placed second in that league in something like 7 of 10 seasons. Over the years, it's turned into a pseudo-industry league
3:01
I like winning, so I'll say that's among the most rewarding.
3:02
When ottoneu started up, I played a single season and won (5x5) then quit for a year. Then I joined FG Staff 2, taking over Summer Anne Burton's terrible roster. After one rebuilding season, I've won three straight years against other RotoGraphs folk. That's fun experience #2.
Revisionist History
3:02
who is the better 3B long term(next 3 years): Joey Gallo or Travis Shaw?
Brad Johnson
3:02
Gallo
Peter
3:02
Can Smoak repeat his 2017 performance?  Does his profile scream regression, or could this be a true late stage breakout?
Brad Johnson
3:03
I think we're looking at a little of both. He does appear to be legitimately better than past iterations. To hear him explain it, he stopped trying to hit the piss out of the ball and good things happened.
3:04
Of course, he's likely to regress some - he's not young and his recent season was pretty much a best case scenario complete with incorrect scouting reports.
ok, let's check out what people are saying in the present...
Mark
3:04
Is Gallo going to really make more contact?
Brad Johnson
3:05
He really doesn't need to
I know the strikeout rate is painful, but it comes with a perfectly acceptable OBP and more than enough power.
3:06
Going back to the Gallo or Shaw question, Shaw makes things close in a AVG format. I tend to overlook that at first glance because I don't personally have any AVG leagues
3:07
In a OBP or OPS format, you're looking at comparable production between the two with Gallo hitting +10 HR.
And seemingly more room for growth (.250 BABIP and the high K%)
The Man With No Name
3:08
Are you buying back into Bumgarner as you would have preseason 2017?
Brad Johnson
3:08
Pretty much. I think we have to assume the Giants will be terrible until we see what they do this winter.
So that hurts his value
Mark
3:08
Re: but if he did (even a little), does he hit 50 homeruns consistently?
Brad Johnson
3:09
(re: Gallo)
I don't know that it's reasonable to project anybody to consistently hit 50 home runs. If anybody in the league was going to do that, it'd be Stanton. And he HASN'T done that.
3:10
Right now, I'm looking at Gallo as Chris Davis with youth, potential, and 3B eligibility.
Mark
3:10
thats what I figured, I think people are going to underestimate him and miss out on 45 homeruns in late rounds
Brad Johnson
3:10
Possibly. I expect us touts to spend a lot of words talking about the importance of the outlier HR guys.
Magic 8 Ball
3:10
Everybody kept waiting for Alex Wood to fall apart in 2017, but he didn't. Optimistic about 2018 as a #3 starter in points league?
Brad Johnson
3:11
Uh, he kind of did fall apart though. The velocity dropped and he turned into a back end guy. Somebody you can roster full time but don't need to go out of your way to acquire. With the health issues, he's going to be overpriced on draft day.
3:12
You're better off taking some value fliers, which parlays perfectly into...
redsoxman
3:12
Pitching is always fickle.  Any "diamond's in the rough" that you see for next year in terms of pitchers??  Or any comeback pitchers?  I'm talking the waiver wire guys who become 2-3 guys or more (See your Robbie Ray comment above or Jake Airetta a few years ago..etc)
Brad Johnson
3:12
I don't have this drafted up so I'll need a minute.
3:13
I've liked Tyler Chatwood for awhile. Think there could be decent performance there. Joe Biagini, Jerad Eickhoff, Trevor Williams, and Mike Montgomery come to mind (I'm reading one of my rosters) as guys with some flavor of potential
Luiz Gohara is getting mega hype, he's another
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