JotCast | Brad Johnson Baseball Chat 12-12-2017

Brad Johnson Baseball Chat 12-12-2017

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The old professor

3:29

Odds that Gleyber

odds that Gleyber is in the opening day lineup now that Headley is

gone? I’m thinking Boone brings him in on day 1 like Torre did w Jeter

Brad Johnson

3:30

I'll set the line at 60%. It really depends on 1. who they sign over the rest of the winter and 2. how he performs this spring.

Carl

3:30

Dee Gordon had about 5% of the steals that were rosterable in the NL last year. How much does his switching leagues cause Hamilton's value to go up in NL only leagues?

Brad Johnson

3:31

Well, let's see if/where Hamilton is traded. Seems semi-likely

Beyond that, if he stays in the NL, I don't think Gordon leaving really affects his value. On the one hand, it makes it much easier to win the category. On the other hand, every other owner has a path to second place.

3:32

Why not let one person overpay for 1 category Hamilton and shoot for second or third in the category with better values?

Tommy

3:32

Are current baseball economics creating a handful of super teams and everyone else scrambling for a Wild Card? Seems like 8-10 buyers and everyone else 'rebuilding'.

Brad Johnson

3:32

This is a fun one, let's spend a little time on this. Feel free to interject as I share some thoughts

3:33

I think what we're seeing right now is a symptom of a few things that happened about five years ago

data quality and analytical resources suddenly took a huge leap forward

3:34

a few rebuilding first movers - the Astros, Cubs, Dodgers, and Yankees were able to fully leverage new data to build super teams. Other franchises are playing catch up, but they're mostly on the same page now

a few clubs like the Marlins notwithstanding

3:35

Baseball has also become hyper saturated in cash. Even a tiny market club like the Brewers can consider making a play for a top free agent

3:36

The only thing holding every club back from fielding over a $100MM roster is their own debt burdens (incidentally, that's why the Marlins are in fire sale mode)

3:37

This combination of information and resources should help league parity long term. Presently, we do have a handful of super teams. Luckily the 2 wild card format has encouraged most teams to field a competitive roster into the summer months. You never know when you're going to find a miracle or two

3:38

Actually, the 2017 Yankees are a pretty good example

The Red Sox were much worse than anticipated, and they got more than they could have hoped from breakout performers

3:39

Of their entire roster, only Bird underperformed projections

Maybe Tanaka too, but he was good enough

Hinkie

3:39

The Rays got Jose De Leon for Logan Forsythe last winter. What kind of a return can Cesar Hernandez bring the Phillies this winter ? What other pieces would be needed for a CeHe for Tyler Skaggs deal ?

Brad Johnson

3:39

The Angels are short on pitching depth as it is, so I don't see this as an effective framework

3:40

Also worth noting that Hernandez is considerably better than Forsythe

He's just as cheap too

3:41

Personally, I think the Phillies would be very foolish to trade Hernandez. I know the fans are clamoring to see Scott Kingery, but it's very unlikely he's a better player than Hernandez. Just sit on the depth for now.

That's my advice to the Phillies.

3:42

Hernandez was the 8th best 2B by WAR in 2017

His 3.3 WAR was tied with Dee Gordon, .2 WAR behind Jed Lowrie, and just ahead of Robinson Cano and Whit Merrifield.

Fair to say they all tied for 6th-10th

3:44

In 2016 which was a mutant year for 2B, Hernandez had 4.3 WAR, good for 9th best (DJ LeMahieu was 10th - also at 4.3 WAR, another tie).

Tommy

3:44

So, more of a first mover advantage into analytics and developing the farm system and not just a payroll/market size issue. Appreciate the input, thanks!

Brad Johnson

3:44

The current luxury tax rules act as a much stronger cap than in past iterations

3:45

So most clubs are going to be living between $100MM and $197MM in payroll. With a few teams occasionally going over. And the Marlins, Rays, and A's languishing

Those aren't exactly even terms, but it's close enough for most teams to build a super roster with the right moves

3:47

Another matter I forgot to mention, replacement level has increased considerably in recent years. Or more specifically, the supply of 0-2 WAR players has increased substantially

Mitch

3:47

Would you deal Nomar Mazara for Ian Happ in a dynasty? I know hes young but only 2 of 40 career bombs come against leftys.

Brad Johnson

3:48

I think that's a gamble you can make. Both talented players with flaws and huge breakout potential

Jeff

3:48

Where can I find a dynasty league?

Brad Johnson

3:48

ottoneu is a good entry level option