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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 2-18-2020
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Batting Eye
4:55
Thanks for the chat!  Scott Kingery now a future batting champ now that he can see?
Brad Johnson
4:55
In my experience, and with the exception of Tommy Pham, vision improvement narratives don't correlate with better outcomes.
Sox Fan
4:56
How much disappointment in Benintendi is in overzealous projections and misperception than him. 3 less homers, same amount of doubles, random average fluctuation and everyone now thinks he sucks
Brad Johnson
4:56
Shush. I'm collecting all the Benintendi.
Bosox Sorry Excuse
4:57
Will Boston run out a 2 man rotation this year? Sale and Erod?
Brad Johnson
4:57
Don't sleep on Eovaldi!
Dude has stuff for days. Didn't lose any of it last year.
Kevin
4:57
I was a big believer in J Polanco last year. I was not disappointed buttttt anymore growth potential? Can he be a top 10 SS this year (Semien mold)
Brad Johnson
4:57
Asking for more growth seems bold
DH
4:58
Philosophically, do you prefer high variance or low variance prospects for dynasty leagues? Why?
Brad Johnson
4:58
I don't approach it this way.
Perceptions of variance are typically erroneous.
4:59
To rephrase a little though, I prefer actualized players over toolsy players.
Walt
4:59
Thanks for doing this chat! Please complete this sentence: <Blank> will lead the 2020 Mariners in saves.
Brad Johnson
4:59
I should know this cold, but I need to go look it up.
5:00
I know people are talking about Hirano and I'm pretty sour on that
5:01
Brandon Brennan
Rich
5:01
The yellow flag I most often see raised for Willie Calhoun is his IFFB% but I calculated it as if it were part of K% and it only got him up to ~25 K%, which seems ok given rest of his profile. I worry more about his pedestrian BBE%. Any thoughts?
Brad Johnson
5:01
So ignoring most of what you're asking me to respond to...
5:02
Part of the problem with a high IFFB% is it indicates a player doesn't have a tight launch angle.
Which we've learned correlates to underperforming in BABIP and vice versa
So it's not only in-play strikeouts, it's also a leading indicator of other negative outcomes.
Sox Fan
5:03
More Benintendi (I WILL NOT BE SILENCED). The guy raked ahead in the count and was dismal with 2 strikes. Random noise, or something he needs to change in his approach?
Brad Johnson
5:03
Did I ignore your Benintendi question? I meant to respond! I even read it!
5:04
Oh right, I shushed you!
Seems like a sign he lapsed into passivity
He's always walked that line between Bregman and Chris Young the Hitter.
tmh
5:05
Dylan Cease and Mitch Keller....what does your crystal ball see in store for them this year? Can either get to #2 or #3 starter status? ?
Brad Johnson
5:05
I'd rather bet on Keller as a starter. I just really think Cease is a reliever. At the very least, I'd like the White Sox to set him loose in the pen and see if he can pull a Carrasco.
Sox Fan
5:05
No you read it, but told me to Shush, and i feel my value to this thread is too important for your selfish fantasy team :)
diadem
5:06
Who will have a better season, Aguilar or Thames?
Brad Johnson
5:06
Well, Aguilar has an easier path to full time reps.
But Thames should crush him on a rate-basis
I'm really out on Aguilar.
Rich
5:06
Thanks, that sort of does respond on Calhoun and low barrel rate, though, and means we should probably take both those indicators are somewhat bearish even with excellent bat to ball/contact skills.
Marcus Semien
5:06
will I retain 90% of last years value or ill I regress into "just another SS" again. Was last year a fluke?
Brad Johnson
5:07
I've had a hard time with Semien this winter. I'm not inclined to buy at 90% of 2019, but I'm also not ready to declare he'll go full pumpkin.
For one, if the baseball was driving the surge, we don't know which ball we're getting this year.
Damomen
5:08
Who leads the orioles in saves this year? Givens? Harvey? Tbd?
Brad Johnson
5:08
I like Givens for a rebound
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