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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 2-4-2020
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Brad Johnson
4:48
If I realllllly have to reach, I'll bet Pedro Severino over Chance Sisco
Gavelin the Javelin
4:49
I have Acuna for 2 years, so winning now is the goal. If I have the opportunity to swap my Blake Snell and Jo Adell for his Max Fried and Wander Franco (points league where pitching volume matters)--do I pass?
Brad Johnson
4:49
That's going to come down to how hard you want to buy this supposed Fried breakout
A lot of my colleagues are talking like he's bankable, and I'm not quite as confident.
4:50
But, if we're buying in all the way, it's arguable he's already better than Snell.
4:51
For me, the hardest thing to swallow is his 2.55 B/9. I kinda have him on a 4.00 BB/9 going forward. Pitchers who surge in BB/9 usually give most of it back the next year.
4:52
In any case, if Snell = Fried is somewhere close to true, then you have to take Wander even if Adell might have helped more now.
Dynasty Owner
4:52
Is a 15 team dynasty league (50 person rosters) large enough that you start valuing 'sure thing' but non-crazy-ceiling prospects (Madrigal, Vaughn, etc) more relative to high-risk-high-upside prospects (Dominguez etc)?  Or is it still small enough that you would generally rather gamble with prospects on high-upside guys rather than safer prospects?
Brad Johnson
4:53
I'm not sure I really make this distinction in any format.
It's certainly fine to prefer near-majors to distant guys. Or vice versa. Whatever you're best at developing. Play to your strengths.
4:54
I know I feel like I'm pretending a bit when I try to take shots at IFA guys. Just grabbed a share of Ronny Paulino and have no idea what to think about it. Next pick was the aforementioned Steele Walker play who's much more in my wheelhouse of near-majors with fantasy traits.
4:55
Dominguez is so hyped that he's a bad example
Verdugo
4:55
If LA gets Betts, I am heading to Boston 100 Percent?  Am I better or as good as Robles?
Brad Johnson
4:55
I don't think we can assume 100%
4:56
Although it makes way too much sense, the Dodgers would only be locking in a year with any certainty. So they might just want to option Verdugo instead. Or use him on the extendi-bench
4:57
I'm not really liking this Robles comp. Verdugo is more actualized but Robles still seems to have more HR and SB output by a huge factor. And I think Robles is going to grow into monsterdom.
4:58
I could tentatively climb on board a Verdugo over Robles for 2020 bet if we leave out SBs.
Vic
4:58
Would you rather have Bregman and Clevenger or deGrom and Harper?
Brad Johnson
4:58
Let's ask (I don't care honestly)
Which?
Bregman and Clevinger (50% | 20 votes)
 
deGrom and Harper (50% | 20 votes)
 
Total Votes: 40
Anonymous
4:59
any meta Reliever strategy this year? feels like Saves are getting harder to predict, even though RPs are getting better
Brad Johnson
4:59
I'm avoiding investing in expensive relievers. Unless my leaguemates also leave them as too cheap.
Anonymous
4:59
why is Giancarlo Actual Stanton going 20 picks after Pete Alonso?
Brad Johnson
4:59
He's back to "injury prone"
5:00
Not really, but that's part of the perception. Also hit that magical age 30 number.
12-year-old
5:00
Is it unusual for a kid of my age to be a regular FanGraphs reader, and make my own player rater to use in my three Fantasy leagues?
Brad Johnson
5:01
A little bit, but not in a bad way. And if you ever decide you want to write or work in a front office, now's as good a time as any to start.
Victor Wang was like 16 when he wrote his big piece about prospect values. (it's now outdated). He's been hiding in front offices since he was 18.
5:02
(I think)
Anonymous
5:02
is 3rd the best draft position this year?
Brad Johnson
5:02
I'm not sure, but it does leave you with a nice situation in the first round.
Can't feel bad about getting Trout, Yelich, Acuna, or Cole.
Which OAK Matt?
5:02
Which Oakland Matt hits .270 with 40+ HR this year?
Brad Johnson
5:04
None? .270 seems robust though I suppose those extra HR might put 'em over the edge.
I wanted to confirm numbers but FG isn't loading for me just now.
5:06
Both have a decent chance to scrape across 40 HR though
Time to wrap it up
Mark Yost
5:06
Feeling the Kintzler love as a late rounds closer? Miami looks better on paper
Brad Johnson
5:07
Probably my third choice of Miami reliever. This post was pre-Kintzler signing but still holds up. I'd try Stanek first. https://www.patreon.com/posts/33363046
Nathan
5:07
Who's a more realistic bust this season, k. Marte, r. Devers, or a. Meadows
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