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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 2-5-2019
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Believeland
4:28
What is your expectation for Robles if he gets a full season? what's his ceiling?
Brad Johnson
4:29
I don't see much risk of a flameout. I think he'll enter the league as a three or four WAR CF.
He makes plenty of contact, has shown signs of burgeoning power, will steal 25+ bases, playable AVG/OBP
The only question is his role in the lineup. Could be lower in the order initially.
Blackbird
4:30
Hi Brad, Scoresheet SIM league - Keep (13).  Hiura + Royce Lewis + Kyle Tucker + Bumgarner vs Francisco Lindor + Jake Lamb.  What side do you want in that blockbuster?
Brad Johnson
4:30
I can only give this a smell. I think the bigger side has a LOT of value, but it only works if you're not cutting other good players. Otherwise, you want to aggregate to Lindor.
Dungeon Master
4:31
Grandal a top catcher 2019+2020? Usually don't keep non-elite catchers, but I have the option to keep very cheaply for 2 years in dynasty when I'm at peak competitiveness.
Brad Johnson
4:31
Good bet to be top 5 at the position
Can't bank it of course
Voltron
4:31
Hi Brad,Is Blake Treinen a legit top 3 closer?  He took huge leaps last year at the age of 30 from all of his career norms.   Did the development of his cutter really make him that unhittable?
Brad Johnson
4:31
I think so. With the caveat that there are about 5 closers who are amazing
And they could fall in any order
4:32
Diaz, Treinen, Jansen, Kimbrel, and Chapman.
dezre
4:32
Creating a projection model for points leagues, pretty easy to map stats to their corresponding point  totals and rank who will score more points by position. Is there a corresponding way to do this for H2H categories leagues, especially for rate stats? What’s the best way to build a projection system for this format in your opinion?
Brad Johnson
4:32
Sorry, I'm the wrong person to ask. I suggest cornering Jeff Zimmerman or Ariel Cohen.
4:33
I long ago determined that projections hinder me a lot more than they help
Wally World
4:33
You mentioned keeping Brad Keller in your Ottoneu post because he suppresses HR.  I realize he induces a lot of GB, but do you have any particular reason you believe he keeps his HR/FB as low as it was last year?
Brad Johnson
4:33
He made a variety of improvements throughout the season. I suspect there will be a post on the topic before long.
4:34
Also, Kauffman Stadium + terrible intra-division rivals
(and wins don't matter in FGpts)
Eagle landing again
4:34
With al only catcher such a mess, would you consider keeping Danny Jansen over someone like Mallex Smith or Leclerc? (2 catcher, Obp league)
Brad Johnson
4:34
Despite the mess, no, not really.
Hard to pass Smith's SB
Camden
4:34
Do you have any projections or rankings you recommend using for a startup dynasty league?
Brad Johnson
4:35
I could try putting that together. It would be a patreon project though since it would mostly point to non-FG resources. I do love the FG prospect crew, but they're not ranking anything for us. They're real world focused.
Scotty
4:36
Dynasty league, could you rank: T. Swaggerty, M. Vientos, T. Ornelas, X. Edwards?
Brad Johnson
4:36
Edwards is one of my favorite prospects
And I don't just mean on that list. He looks like Dee Gordon with plate discipline.
4:38
The other 3 are all the same asset class for me. A lot to like, but plenty of red flags.
Brad's Alter Ego
4:38
Brad, what kind of pitcher will Jimmy Nelson be in 2019? You like him over Marco Gonzales?
Brad Johnson
4:38
Sorry, I'm not a fortune teller. There's no knowing what kind of Nelson will show up.
I wasn't even confident we'd get a repeat of his 2017 BEFORE the injury
Thormy Daniels
4:39
If your only catcher in a FGpts league was Kurt Suzuki, and you expect him to play well, but only half the games, would you try to supplement him with someone like Sal Perez who plays all the time or someone like Chirinos or Gomes (or both) where you could only play them in favorable matchups so that you hit the 162 games limit?
Brad Johnson
4:39
I'd go for Chirinos
Mostly because I ran a Suzuki/Chirinos platoon last year for $4 and it was great
Something like 4.6 pts/g
Thormy Daniels
4:40
WTF happened to Luis Severino at the end of 2018 and do you think any of that carries over to 2019?
Brad Johnson
4:40
I would bet on fatigue or a minor injury
Could also have been a slump
We don't talk about pitcher slumps because they're kind of weird compared to hitter slumps
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