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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 3-13-2018
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Brad Johnson
3:58
Ahoy there. Let's get rolling.
jd
3:58
Are Corey Seagers injury concerns creating a huge value opportunity with his ADP around 40? He seems to be healthy and was raking before his injuries surfaced in 2017. Is there much a of a difference between seager and correa (ADP around 14) to justify this gap?
Brad Johnson
3:59
Valuing "injuries" is one of the highest risk/reward propositions in fantasy sports. I'm often eager to bet on players with perceived health issues.
4:00
Typically, the ADP penalty exceeds the actual risk of the injury. In the case of Seager, I'm not sure that's true.
4:01
It's not a good sign that the elbow is STILL an issue after an entire offseason.
I'm not comfortable expecting more than a repeat of his 2017 numbers, and those firmly belong around pick 35. I usually see him go pick 30 or earlier.
Big Tuna
4:02
How confident are you in Conforto after hearing he may play in a game next week?
Brad Johnson
4:02
Half grade increase from "hands off" to "would buy at favorable rate"
4:03
That's so far behind where he's actually going to be picked/valued though. I'm all but guaranteed to have 0 shares this year.
I don't know what to do with his injury. We don't have precedents to work with.
Big Tuna
4:03
Which closer are you most worried about losing his job? Familia?
Brad Johnson
4:03
Definitely not Familia. He's one of my preferred value picks along with Morrow.
4:04
I'm not "most" worried about Hector Neris, but I'm pretty confident he's a setup/middle reliever by the end of the season.
4:05
The most worrisome are guys who are presumed closers rather than named guys - Soria, Claudio, Bedrosian/Parker, etc. Rodney too I suppose.
Sean Doolittle has recurring shoulder issues and is qualitatively similar to Ryan Madson
4:06
Could name half the closers if you'd like...
Cronut Burger
4:06
What's the earliest we can expect to see Eloy get called up?
Brad Johnson
4:06
I wouldn't look for fantasy production from Eloy this season. Might get something like 2017 Calhoun.
Sometime after the Super 2 cutoff most likely.
rpo
4:06
Have to make a final keeper call this week- Berrios or Godley (same price)- who would you choose?
Brad Johnson
4:07
I'm choosing Godley, but I've been driving that bandwagon for a long time
I think we'll continue to see inconsistency out of Berrios - flashes of brilliance mixed with bad fastball days
southcoast
4:07
Who is Wilmer Font?  Why so valuable on the FG auction calculator?
Brad Johnson
4:07
Ask Jeff Sullivan. Seriously, he's written extensively about Font.
VAMPARINA
4:08
I traded Carrasco for Cole and Stroman in a keeper league with QS instead of W.  Am I dumb?
Brad Johnson
4:08
Nope, that's a valid dice role. All 3 (prior to Stroman injury) had roughly equal chances to have the best season of the group
4:09
Carrasco is very good, but nobody should mistake him for a reliable asset. He has a minus fastball these days and a long history of health issues.
Tony
4:09
Thoughts on Willie Calhoun being demoted? Is it his shoddiness defensively, a way to keep him cheap, or both?
Brad Johnson
4:09
They're looking to start Drew Robinson or Ryan Rua. My read is that the demotion is about 2 things.
4:10
1. Maybe they get the extra year of club control. I doubt they'll go out of their way to get it. Calhoun isn't young enough for that to matter much. He's already a DH. He's probably a non-tender by the time he's 28 or 29.
4:11
2. The Rangers have constantly said positive things about Robinson. But he still doesn't look like more than a 3.5 OFer. Keeping Calhoun out of the way is a decent excuse to get an extended look at Robinson to decide if he can develop more or is developed enough to be a useful piece.
4:12
That's the narrative I would be touting if I was a Rangers beat writer.
ChiSox
4:12
Who wins the closer's gig for the White Sox?
Brad Johnson
4:13
75% Soria. It's just easier to go with the vet on a fixed contract. Jones is definitely worth owning until we hear for certain. Ignore Minaya. You don't want him even if he's closing.
Mario Mendoza
4:13
Why no love for Jeimer? I'm seeing a hitting profile not all that unlike Bregman or Andujar
Brad Johnson
4:14
He probably deserves more love. The modest power and lack of speed make him kind of like a poor man's Ben Zobrist though. And that's already a poor man's profile of some flavor.
What's Zobrist the poor man of these days?
Big Tuna
4:14
Are there any spec closers you're taking a flyer on late in drafts in the hopes they win a job? Bearclaw? Minter? Kela?
Brad Johnson
4:15
I wrote an article about Brad Boxberger and Yoshihisa Hirano. DBacks have some good reasons to keep Bradley out of closer duty.
I'm told there are cookies in the kitchen. Excuse me.
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