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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 3-17-2020
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Brad Johnson
3:56
Ahoy, I need to grab some fresh baked bread, then I'll be ready to roll.
4:00
I suppose this is also a good time to point out that as baseball writers, we here at FanGraphs have income tied to games actually being played. So, if you're not too adversely affected yourself, consider signing up for a FanGraphs membership.
4:01
I'll also plug my personal Patreon because why not. I make most of my yearly income from DFS advice columns. https://www.patreon.com/BaseballATeam
Roger
4:02
What is the minimum number of games do you need for a legitimate season to take place? Do you think it is possible that we don't get any baseball this year?
Brad Johnson
4:03
This might just be me, but legitimacy isn't a function of games played imo
Obviously, the more games played, the more likely we are to see the best teams in the postseason.
4:04
But the whole point of the exercise is the emotional rollercoaster of joy and pain. And that can be just as easily accomplished with a 62 game season as a 162 game season.
4:05
I think it's witheringly unlikely the season will be skipped entirely.
Roger
4:05
How will a shortened season affect service time? Will this affect how many top prospects get the call this year?
Brad Johnson
4:06
We'll see what the league and union negotiate. I wrote about this indirectly yesterday when I covered all the elite pitching prospects on fringe contenders.
Since a shorter season introduces more variability into which teams make the postseason, fringe contenders are incented to ignore club control concerns.
Roger
4:07
How does the delayed season affect the values of injured Yankee sluggers Judge and Stanton?
Brad Johnson
4:07
It's a big plus to injured players on the recovery trail!
Dan
4:07
How many games is too few for you to want to play fantasy?  When do you start wanting refunds or to skip the year in leagues with year-to-year relegation rules?  I don't know if I want long-term consequences for a 50-game season.
Brad Johnson
4:08
Relegation leagues are pretty uncommon and should be treated separately.
I'm happy with anything over 40 games I think for standard roto. Obviously H2H formats should consider switching to roto if we're missing more than 8 weeks.
Pat G
4:08
If you haven't drafted yet, how would you be changing your draft strategy?
Brad Johnson
4:09
I'm deemphasizing solid volume plays like Marcus Stroman in favor of workload constrained upside plays like Lance McCullers and Julio Urias.
4:10
There's also less time for closers to be ousted so those kinda worrisome guys like Raisel Iglesias, Edwin Diaz, and Jose Leclerc get a little boost.
CH
4:10
Missed bad on RP in a 5x5 league - you like knebel as a guy at least for ratios / good K rate?
Brad Johnson
4:10
I do like Knebel. I like Karinchak more.
Cody
4:11
Hi Brad, since Mitch Haniger has a bunch of time to rest and rehab, do you think he could potentially repeat a performance like last years first-half?
Brad Johnson
4:11
As noted, any player progressing towards a recovery gets a boost. Haniger should be virtually free at this point given the way these injuries have just cascaded. They're all related too which is really bad.
4:12
Doesn't mean he can't recover, but it's a little riskier than somebody who has a bunch of unrelated woes.
Jimmy2Times
4:12
Why don't they just play the games in empty parks in a few months if everything is still on lockdown (or a hopefully less dire version of it)?
Brad Johnson
4:12
I think we all expect this option to be explored at the very least.
Pat's Bat
4:12
Dynasty league drafting this weekend.  I'm going to overpay for a SP and a 1B.  Based on who is available and my budget would you rather have Syndergaard/Freeman or Corbin/Olson (or Goldschmidt)?
Brad Johnson
4:13
I like Corbin/Olson myself. Just not very keen on Syndergaard.
Dave
4:13
Did San Diego see something in Luis Urias they were concerned about and that is why they traded him?
Brad Johnson
4:13
Yes, he's tiny.
4:14
But the main issue is that he's a high floor, low ceiling type
And their farm system is stocked to the gills with high floor players, many who also possess high ceilings.
It's the same reason they dealt Slapdick Edwards
4:15
He's going to be a good MLB player in a few years, but the Padres need room to try to develop their stars. There is such a thing as too many prospects.
Dave
4:16
What's your outlook on Nick Senzel?  It seems like people's opnions have dropped off dramatically since his #6 overall prospect rating a few years ago.
Brad Johnson
4:16
My opinion hasn't really changed, but I was also lowest on him for a very long time. And I think his truthers are only down because he has no obvious role with the Reds at present.
4:18
He's still a solid core player with some breakout potential. There are a lot of ways his playing style could be optimized, but the Reds haven't historically tinkered with their hitting prospects much. So that's probably on him.
Rollie's Mustache
4:18
Let's say we get a truncated season of 100-ish games. Do you think a team would ever go with a 4-man rotation given a pitcher's overall workload will be much lighter this year?
Brad Johnson
4:18
Honestly, I think we're going to be seeing a lot of doubleheaders so a 4-man wouldn't work very well.
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