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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 3-24-2020
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Brad Johnson
4:00
Here we go. Real actual baseball news to discuss! But first, some advertisements...
4:01
  1. I'm running a best ball auction on Fantrax tomorrow night at 7pm ET. Presently, there are only 2 participants. Follow the instructions herein to get an invite: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/best-ball-auction-results-plus-second-dr...
4:02
2. The Real MLB League kicks off tonight with our first simulated day (no games). Opening Day is on Thursday!
4:03
3. I just posted the ninth episode of my podcast, Juiced Balls, featuring D.B. Firstman. https://www.patreon.com/posts/35195750
4:04
4. Patrons are nice in these trying times. Now, let's chat!
Thor
4:04
How mad are my fantasy owners right now?
Brad Johnson
4:04
Most TJs for pitchers take about 15 to 16 months.
4:05
So that April timeline is only if he decides he wants to blow his arm out again heading into free agency. I think the best case scenario for the Mets is he comes back as a reliever late in the year. He might even get non-tendered, although teams usually err on the side of rostering these guys.
Thor owner
4:06
Quite mad
Brad Johnson
4:06
My only share of Thor was in the first best ball auction.
CC
4:07
I keep reading that middling MLB teams may try to go for it this year due to higher variance playoff odds. Should this apply to H2H leagues as well? Went into a shallow 16 team H2H auction with 25% less auction dollars due to prior trades assuming to punt for keepers, but now debating whether to try to go for it despite the disadvantage?!
Brad Johnson
4:07
Absolutely. It applies even more in fantasy than reality.
Pat's Bat
4:07
I cut thor and bid him up to almost his cost year before dropping out.  Now I feel better about overpaying for Eduardo Rodriguez.
Brad Johnson
4:08
Wait until his knee falls off again.
Anonymous
4:08
Solve this: 2020 roto limits stay at 1400 IP / 162 GP, despite shortened season. (This will happen in Yahoo! leagues) Trying to hit the IP limit gives a huge boost to W and K, but devastates ERA and WHIP. How do you take advantage? Does your draft split change?
Brad Johnson
4:08
If you're in an auction, you can adjust by pumping a ton of money into quality pitchers.
4:09
For a snake draft, I think you'll have to just settle for falling short and making each start/sit decision on the merits.
If it's a fairly shallow league, you can still emphasize pitching early.
Pat's Bat
4:09
I'm the commisioner of my dynasty league.  We just had our auction which is usually followed immediately by a slow draft of prospects/rookie eligible players.  This year I see no reason to rush the prospect draft with everything up in the air but I'm getting pressure to start it from players who want a distraction.  Wait or draft now?
Brad Johnson
4:10
I think if your leaguemates uniformly want to do it, you might as well. No sense giving people more information than normal for this particular sub-draft.
Likewise, if you're running a league and the participants want to delay, there's no harm in doing so.
4:11
Each decision can either be reached collectively or by commissioner fiat. There's no wrong answer between drafting now or later. You're just working with a different information set.
Roy
4:11
Does Kopech start in the rotation? Does he throw enough innings per start to qualify for QS regularly? Would Freddy Peralta be a better $1 draft where SV+Hld replaces SV and QS replaces W?
Brad Johnson
4:12
I prefer the Kopech dart throw personally. He's dripping with talent whereas Peralta is a bit of a one-trick pony. It's possible Kopech doesn't open the year in the rotation just because the White Sox is fairly deep, but it's also pretty clear to me he's their second best SP.
Roger
4:12
Dylan Carlson, Nate Pearson or Mackenzie Gore? Who would you take in a 6x6 OBP/QS dynasty league?
Brad Johnson
4:13
Those are fantastic options.
I think the answer is probably situational. Especially when pondering pitcher or hitter in a dynasty, you have to consider where you are on the win curve so to speak.
George
4:14
Hi!  Thanks for doing these, stay safe!
12 Tm, 5x5 (obp) otherwise standard.  Are Buxton, Kyle Tucker, and Andrus enough for me to be middle of the pack in SBs?  I semi-punted but would like to be a little competitive there for cheap
Brad Johnson
4:15
I think that works as a starting point, but you're going to need to be putting a lot of effort into it. Streaming guys like Dyson for instance.
4:16
I'm probably not suppose to link offsite, but I *just* wrote a monster steals article for rotoworld. AL goes up on Friday.
Gavelin the Javelin
4:16
Hey Brad! Looking for baseball content--I have OOTP 15, but am wondering about pulling the trigger on OOTP 21. Is the difference in gameplay enough to make it worth it? Sell me on the purchase.
Brad Johnson
4:17
Absolutely. The updated rosters alone are worth the modest investment. You can also play Perfect Team and Tournaments, both of which are fun mini-games that can be managed with a couple minutes a day. Or you can deep dive them.
I didn't start playing until 19 so I don't know exactly what else is missing from 15
4:18
I've noticed a lot of subtle but really meaningful improvements between 20 and 21 though so the difference between 15 and 21 must be staggering
4:19
The scouting experience is really upgraded.
4:20
There are some gameplay improvements too
And they've added the 3 batter minimum
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