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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 8-7-2018
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Brad Johnson
3:05
Good afternoon folks. We'll get things started in a minute.
Kev
3:06
How am I supposed to trust BABIP with the shift? If a player like, Carlos Santana has a career low BABIP in 2018, do I chalk it up to bad luck or is it the result of shifting? How would I know?
Brad Johnson
3:07
It sounds like you're oversimplifying your concept of BABIP.
3:08
The shift isn't the only factor to consider. Santana is hitting more fly balls and infield flies with fewer line drives. All are significant changes that lead to a lower expected BABIP
Even before looking at shifts, I would expect a career low BABIP with these numbers.
Will his batted ball profile regress in a positive way? Perhaps.
3:09
We also have a splits tool which lets you look at his personal performance against shifts.
3:10
From what I see, he seems a tad unlucky in this regard. Ultimately, I'd expect the batted balls to regress towards normal along with his shift performance. Hence a .250ish BABIP RoS.
yojiveself
3:10
Do you think mallex smith will be an every day starter at the top of the lineup hereon out?
Brad Johnson
3:11
Not really, but he wouldn't be the first speedy player to succeed with bad hard and soft contact rates. He's also performing better recently which could be a fluky or a sign of skills growth.
3:12
If he can't maintain his .378 BABIP - which seems like a stretch - then he won't have the OBP necessary to support a top-of-the-order role.
I'm rooting for him though
It's nice to have a replacement for fading Dee Gordon.
Over Here
3:13
Moncada dropable 12 teams 10 keepers no price?  I also have Dozier. And would you start Stroman today?
Brad Johnson
3:13
Moncada should be owned by somebody, but I do think you can move on if the waiver move is a good trade for your team. Stroman is scary in a bad way tonight.
Kirk
3:13
Votto has been terribly disappointing this year (and I'm in an OBP league!). What's his outlook ROS, and in 2019? Top 30 pick?
Brad Johnson
3:14
For OBP, Votto will be a top 30 pick until he has a disaster season. I hate the declining skills profile mixed with age, but a .426 OBP more than makes up a low HR total. Especially when he could easily revert to 30 homers.
Isaac
3:15
Hey Brad, do you think that Trevor Bauer's value is drastically improved because of the terrible division he pitches in? Will 2019 be tougher for him when those teams leave the rebuilding stage?
Brad Johnson
3:16
Why would they leave the rebuilding stage? None of them are near turning a corner.
Maybe the Twins aren't as bad, but they aren't in the process of rebuilding
Maybe the White Sox inch towards competitive. They're waiting on rookie breakouts.
3:17
And yes, Bauer is greatly helped by his division, although that's not the complete story. He's also legitimately improved. He's found something that works and has stuck with it - something he never did in the past.
CB
3:17
Hi Brad. Nick Ahmed, apart from an atrocious May, is having a really solid year. Surprised?
Brad Johnson
3:17
Yea. Contact rate is still an issue. He's 12 team playable though.
Pie Eaton Contest
3:18
Taillon tonight in Coors?
Brad Johnson
3:18
Not unless you're trying to lose (I am in a league I have Taillon)
Eduardo
3:19
I traded Miles Mikolas for Victor Robles in my dynasty league. How did I do? Do you think Robles might come up this year? Win a starting gig next year? Thanks
Brad Johnson
3:19
robles should be starting next year. He'll probably join the team in September as a pinch runner.
They have enough no wheels slugs to remove
Jay
3:20
Ames Rosario continues to be middling. Is it time or too early to lower our expectations from the 60-65 FV profile cast of him last summer?
Brad Johnson
3:20
Here's where I'm at on Rosario. What we're seeing is an accurate representation of his current skill - he's just not very good.
3:21
Hidden in there is the potential to be much much better. If you own him in a dynasty league, you'll need to be patient or find a bullish trading partner.
By patient I mean willing to wait 4 years for something to click.
Shallower formats can move on and grumble about it if/when he improves.
Willie Hears Ya,Willie Dont Care
3:22
What should I do with Cody Allen? Hold? Drop? 12 tm H2H, 5x5 categories
Brad Johnson
3:22
I think you're stuck holding him
Sam
3:23
Is Robbie Cano going to help me down the stretch? Do you see him providing much value going forward?
Brad Johnson
3:23
Probably. Slump risks are always present when a player misses half a season for any reason.
They need every marginal win so he'll play unless he's bad
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