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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 9-11-2018
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Brad Johnson
3:59
He's that tweener profile that can start on a good. A first division club is always going to want him in a frequently used part-time role.
This winter may be your best chance to sell
RMR
4:00
Think Kyle Tucker makes the OD roster next year?  Or do they keep him down to suppress service time?  If he's up, is he a FT starter or sharing time?
Assuming health, do you think the Reds bring up Senzel next year after they've gotten the extra year or are they cheap enough to keep him down until super 2 passes?
Brad Johnson
4:00
A couple service time questions here
4:01
I think clubs generally don't give a crap about the Super 2 deadline. If the player is "ready" in April, they'll just take the extra year. If they finally decide he's ready in late-May/early-June and they don't have a pressing need, then the might keep him down for some cost savings
4:02
But it's not something teams are super careful about anymore.
A few small market clubs being the exception - neither the Reds nor Astros though
I think we'll see Senzel ~April 15 and/or when ready
4:03
Tucker may get pushed into May to get the extra year (he already has some service time so it pushes back that deadline). But Houston is mid-playoff window so they'll mostly do whatever best helps their playoff odds.
Pat G
4:03
Hey Brad, meg suggested I ask this of you "Kluber torched my ratios yesterday. Do I just run everyone out there to get W/K/QS, or do I try and manage my way back in. In that thread, do you pitch both Chacin and Quintana today?"
Brad Johnson
4:03
Well then, I better answer this one since you've asked twice!
4:04
I'm in the same boat, I usually pivot to volume when this happens. I wouldn't be completely unmindful of your ratios, but I do think Chacin and Quintana are good enough as long as the wind isn't 15mph out to CF
Let's check that...
4:05
7 mph to LF
keep an eye on it
Braut
4:05
Will Stripling have any value in a 10 teamer down the stretch?
Brad Johnson
4:05
I'd love to give you better than "perhaps"
but that's kinda where we're at. Let's see how he looks tomorrow
RMR
4:05
Is Story a sell high this offseason?  The reduced whiff % would seem to support the improved K rate, but his profile for some reason makes me nervous that he could go backward quickly with a ton of whiffs.
Brad Johnson
4:06
I think this is going to be one of those "sell high" scenarios where you won't actually get a truly high offer
I have him in a 20-team dynasty
My co-owner had the same thought
My approach is to very carefully not say anything about him
4:07
If somebody comes to me and says they must have him, I won't stop 'em.
Don't force a trade just because he's likely to regress.
RMR
4:08
Kluber is (1) going to be fine going forward, (2) entering a gradual decline phase in which he will still be very useful or (3) angling for a major decline with the decreased whiff rate and hittability of his FB?
Brad Johnson
4:08
I need to pay attention to who is asking the question, no more for you RMR!
I think #2 is the likeliest but #3 is an ever-looming threat for EVERY pitcher
4:09
There isn't a single pitcher in the league who is guaranteed to be more than 10 days away from the end of his fantasy usefulness
Pitchers are such fragile assets in general, be wary
The Kid
4:09
B. Anderson a fine volume play in a double-header tomorrow? Vargas + Wheeler
Brad Johnson
4:09
Si
Trap Gone Hamels
4:09
I'm sort of curious about Daniel Norris's K numbers since coming back to the show. Is he worth streaming AL Only or is it a train wreck coming?
Brad Johnson
4:10
The swinging strike rate is there, but we're dealing with tiny samples. Way too much noise to say anything with confidence
4:11
And I didn't happen to catch either outing so I can't offer any scouting takes
The null hypothesis is "no change"
Ampersand
4:11
I can start two of the following in my weekly finals next week: Justin Turner, Eugenio Suarez, Matt Chapman, Shohei Ohtani. The first two?
Brad Johnson
4:11
Yes
Pat G
4:12
Can you make a team too strong in a keep forever dynasty? Such that it makes the league not fun for anyone else and it disbands?
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