JotCast | Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 9/17/2019

Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 9/17/2019

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Brad Johnson

4:00

Alright, let's kick this off.

4:01

Before we start, I encourage you to participate in The Daily Grind Invitational on FantasyDraft.

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-daily-grind-verlander-or-coors/

The link is in Section 1

4:02

I must have forgotten to click publish this morning, so the post only went out an hour ago

We were having 40% overlays without me screwing up the publishing schedule so it might push 50% today

4:03

Basically, enter for $2, expect $4 in return.

Lee

4:03

Thoughts on who's the 1st in line for saves for Pirates - or is it a committee?

Brad Johnson

4:04

So... yea...

Focusing only on the fantasy side of things, Vazquez was roughly the second best reliever in the game so this is a big blow.

4:05

I expect Richard Rodriguez to have top shot at closing. It'll probably go committee though. With just a couple weeks left, there's not much incentive to name a guy before going into the winter.

Fantasy Owners Everywhere

4:06

I won my league's regular season on the strength of Trout and Yelich; I lost in my league's first round of the playoffs because of Trout and Yelich. Hold me?

Brad Johnson

4:06

I lost an ottoneu H2H matchup (won regular season) by 25 points. I imagine a healthy Trout would have been +25 points over Adam Frazier...

Quadrangular

4:07

hey Brad, can we just chat about Vlad Jr. for a minute? The hype was absurd, and the projections were basically unprecedented. What happened? Why aren't we talking more about how wrong everyone was? What do you expect for 2020?

Brad Johnson

4:08

Sure. I don't think anybody was wrong. We got a 35th or 40th percentile outcome. The talent is beyond obvious. He's going to go top 40 in drafts on his top 5 upside. The potential is still ludicrous.

4:09

Now, there was a lot of pressure to buy at the 75th percentile outcome (30 HR, .290 AVG, 100 RBI pace)

I also think there was a degree of infection from keeper and dynasty leagues where he still looks like a Top 1 asset candidate along with Soto and Acuna.

4:10

Personally, I probably won't be adding shares as I prefer to speculate on upside later in drafts and take verifiable talent later

Kinda burned me this year as I picked up no new shares of Yelich or Bellinger

Dan Gleeballs

4:10

For 2020... who are you most optimistic about: Severino or Montas?

Brad Johnson

4:10

Severino

4:11

But I like Montas a lot too

Had somebody ask Montas or Bieber on my Discord this morning. That's a very close race imo

Others felt it was easily Bieber

Kylie

4:11

Can choose one for spot start tonight - Martin Perez vs CWS or Adam Plutko vs. Det - who'd you suggest? Looking for a decent probability of a W without hurting the other stats too much.

Brad Johnson

4:12

I'd go Plutko personally. They're pretty similar, but I see a little more meltdown (and upside) potential for Perez. He himself is less consistent than Plutko and the White Sox offense can be a tad feast or famine

Detroit is just famine

Dustin

4:12

Bellinger or Acuna. Who are you taking first next year

Brad Johnson

4:12

Acuna

Steals

4:13

Interestingly, I didn't think he would steal much in the majors. Not sure how long he'll keep it up

4:13

Am I crazy to consider keeping Muncy over JD Martinez for next year? Muncy is 3 years younger and offers great position flexibility.

Brad Johnson

4:13

Not crazy. It's a hard decision that merits sleeping on

roster headaches

4:13

Hi Brad, in the semi's of my 14 tm H2H league and currently have Marte and Brand Hand on my roster. Do I hold or drop in lieu of getting healthy arms/bats for this pivotal matchup? Thanks!

available bats include: kevin newman, Sano, omar navarez, etc.

Brad Johnson

4:14

I think you have to go as active as possible for H2H playoffs.

That said, those aren't exactly sexy options. No down-roster Mets or Rockies?

stever20

4:14

Vlad Jr. could still hit .275 with 20+ hr and 75-80 RBI. in 120 games. How crazy is it that line is viewed as being a disappointment?

Brad Johnson

4:15

It's pretty nuts.

4:16