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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 9-4-2018
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Brad Johnson
3:58
Hey folks, we'll get started in a moment or two
dave in slc
3:59
any expectation for kyle wright in an nl only ros? it is a keeper league but competing this yr would you drop bud norris or jose quintana for him?
Brad Johnson
4:01
Not really. Unless I missed some bit of news that isn't on rotowire/world, I don't see any reason to expect to see him in the majors this year. If we do, probably a relief role.
4:02
He hasn't exactly dominated in the minors either. He's pitched well, but it's not the kind of dominance required to translate into immediate MLB success. He probably struggles at first. I'd hang onto the closer and reliable vet.
Finding Nimmo
4:03
Do you buy the ReyLo turnaround (specifically increased K%)? I trotted him out against DET, should I continue to rely on him? #RelyOnReyLo
Brad Johnson
4:03
Not quite yet. His good strikeout games tend to correlate with days he throws fewer fastballs. I'm not discerning a pattern of decreased fastball usage. It's probably truer to say that some days he has a better feel for his offspeed stuff
4:04
Lots of pitchers are this way, but it makes them hard to predict start-to-start
If he stays healthy, he will hopefully incrementally improve.
Given the weak divisional rivals, he's worth a stash in 12 team mixed - if you're hurting for IP
Dynasty stockpiler
4:04
Looking at potential free agent keepers in Ottoneu 5x5 - what do you think about car mart in the mid teens or joe ross for a few bucks for 2019?
Brad Johnson
4:05
I'd kick back Ross
You can get any number of pitchers of his quality for $1 in the draft or post-auction
Martinez is probably worth the investment - or at least tradeable.
yojiveself
4:05
Am I crazy to roll with Laureano next week vs Bal and TB?  Two soft pitching staffs.
Brad Johnson
4:06
Depends on the opportunity cost (obviously)
He's playable given the combo of power and speed (and strikeouts)
here goes nothing
4:06
is luke weaver in the cards' rotation next year? i'm holding him at $13 in a 12-team league...
Brad Johnson
4:06
$13 is probably too much outside of NL Only
Actually, drop the "probably." It's way too much
4:07
He's a the kind of $1-3 pitcher you really want. You know, the type that usually actually costs $8 because there's an obvious glimmer of upside
4:08
The thing is, the players who don't have obvious upside actually still have it. Upside that is.
Some forever scrub Charlie Morton isn't much less likely to break out than a touted guy like Weaver.
4:09
So the moral of the story, don't overpay for guys who have to breakout in order to supply value. They should be free.
Sammy
4:09
How much do you trust giolito against the Tigers?
Brad Johnson
4:09
My weekly rant about "trust." Here we go.
I really need to just write a post and bookmark it
4:10
Pitchers aren't things you should ever trust. There's nothing trustworthy about them
They're all basically con men
4:11
The best you can do is form a mean/median expectation then try to understand the range of likely outcomes. And hope not to hit the bad unlikely outcomes.
In the case of Giolito, the mean/median versus Detroit is quite good. I would use him.
He could kill ya though.
Badger
4:11
What are your expectations for Flaherty next year?
Brad Johnson
4:12
This year minus 5-10% with a 40% risk of a DL stint of between 10 and 180 days.
4:13
And that's it for today's lesson in Projections 101
Seriously though, there's ace potential if he takes a step forward. Or he could be over a 4.00 ERA if he takes half a step back.
It's a high risk, high reward profile.
Angelus Novus
4:13
Rostering Franmil and Renfroe as OFers in the first round of the playoffs in a 10-teamer. Hoping to stream hitters from one of those spots. Got a preference?
Brad Johnson
4:14
Keep Renfroe. Or stream both. 10 team is very shallow after all.
Jay
4:14
My OF is running on fumes in a 12-team H2H league, so I'm mostly focused on schedules and steady playing time while trying to find hot hands.  How do you view this group of potential 5th/6th OFs?  Adam Frazier, Bader (just dropped), Laureano, and Brandon Lowe? Thanks!
Brad Johnson
4:15
Those are all good players if a little fringy for 12-team. So what categories are you most actively chasing. Laureano is a power and speed play with bad AVG/decent OBP. Frazier is mostly pure AVG. Bader is just speed with a hint of pop. Lowe is OBP with a hint of pop and speed.
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