Brad Johnson RotoGraphs Chat ? 9/20/16
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The Kid
2:44
I'm just so attached to Pollock and Polanco
Brad Johnson
2:44
Hey, if you love them, go with your gut
Buck
2:45
So I just started playing some Yahoo daily fantasy with $2 that I won in a free contest, and I'm already up to $20. Do you think I'll collect my first million from winnings or the book deal I'll undoubtedly get based on my hot start?
Brad Johnson
2:45
FanGraphs gets 10% of that, right?
Cybo
2:45
Trying to decide on some keepers for 2017. Was hoping for your opinion. 12 team h2h with ops and qs keep 7. Keeping Stanton, Votto, and Story for sure. After them which 4 do you like best of Piscotty, Dahl, Benintendi, J Bell, Mazara, Sano, D Travis, and Cueto.
Brad Johnson
2:46
Dahl, Benintendi, Sano and either Mazara or Piscotty
depending on how amped up for 2017 you want to go
Cheese
2:46
Is Rick Porcello a keeper at $2 in mixed 12 team, keep 12?
Brad Johnson
2:46
yes
could be bumped on certain rosters, but he's an easy $10-15 guy next year
Boris
2:46
Can I count on Ryon Healy ROS? Keeper worthy?
Brad Johnson
2:46
Yes and yes in the right format
2:47
ok wrapping up. We're pretty much out of questions anyway!
JT
2:47
My keep forever starting 2B: Gordon, Cano, Rendon or Swanson?
Brad Johnson
2:47
Rendon if you want best production over 5 years
Gordon or Cano if you're focused on the next 2
Swanson if you want to reach beyond 5 years at the expense of the next 2
Bobby
2:48
Think Keon Broxton's season is a fluke? Worth keeping in mixed leagues?
Brad Johnson
2:48
Mostly
some real stuff there, but the big K rate is scary
Cybo
2:48
Ps- also have Ryon and J Lamb. Either of them keepers for you over Dahl, Benintendi, Sano, or Piscotty/Mazara?
Brad Johnson
2:48
Ooh, I might keep one of them over the latter pair
will need more analysis
Sean
2:48
12 team, keep 8, extra categories bb, k, OBP, SLG, xbh. Correa or Goldschmidt for the next 5 years? no position concerns
Brad Johnson
2:48
Goldy
Rich
2:49
Where do you see Verlander as a keeper next year? Would you keep him over someone like Carrasco or Price? He's looked great and throwing 97 again, but there are tons of miles on that arm.
Brad Johnson
2:49
He's in the same bucket
the smart money is on Carrasco or Price to be better than him next year, but it's not a crazy bet
JT
2:49
Margot Robbie in Suicide Squad or Zoe Saldana in Guardians?
Brad Johnson
2:49
Robbie
fresh basil
2:49
Have Trout, Polanco, piscotty, jup, Benintendi for a total of $64 for OFers in a 260 league. Hate to have all my OF spots taken going in but I think it's a solid cheap crew.
JohnnyFive
2:49
Is Danny Salazar worth keeping at $22? Seems like such a crapshoot with his electric, inconsistent arm.
Brad Johnson
2:50
Watch the news on Salazar, if there's any doubt to his health - and there almost certainly will be - I might divest
Last one...
The Kid
2:50
To get a better idea of your overall strategy, how do evaluate keeper value when it comes to keeper prices and predicted auction value? Is it a ratio or a simple difference? E.g. Bryant costs $45 at auction next year, but I could keep him for $38. So there is a perceived price increase ratio of about 1.2 and a price differential of about $7. Whereas Polanco may go for $19 next year but I could keep him for about $10, so ratio of ~1.5 and difference of $9. Obviously positional scarcity, etc. need to be considered, but your thoughts are always appreciated. I like winning.
Brad Johnson
2:51
Honestly, years of experience have taught me that this approach leads to broken rosters. If I try to anticipate prices, I'm inevitably wrong and way off target by mid-draft
The key to fantasy baseball is maximizing elite talent
2:52
if you have elite players, keep them and hope you get the $1 Storys and Villars later
2:53
hanging onto $5 mid-tier guys just so you can be one of 8 owners to fight over Clayton Kershaw's rights is a tough racket
Good game folks
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