JotCast | Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 1/13/2026

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Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 1/13/2026

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Jubs

2:32

Hi Brendan! Quick question for you. In your assessment of the Mariners system, you mentioned that they have "The most stratified system in the game". By that same coin, what is the least stratified system? As in a farm system with a large plethora of notable players, but very few obvious stars or even everyday big leaguers. Thanks!

Brendan Gawlowski

2:33

Dbacks come to mind. Tons of guys who could be something useful. Huge list. Two 50's, one of whom was on the border.

Tacoby Bellsbury

2:34

How have the changes in infield and outfield positioning in the past half-decade or so changed your evaluation of position players, both defensively and offensively?

Brendan Gawlowski

2:34

They've yo-yo'd a little bit with the rules, and also, to a lesser degree, with the overall strikeout rate of the league. The more you can shift and the less often the ball is in play, the more room you have to stick a stiff in left, to get away with a fringy defender at second, etc.

Sir Nerdlington

2:35

Brendan, welcome to the chat-o-sphere. Thanks for joining. Aside from being an absolute meat donkey, what's the path for high school players working their way up through the minor leagues of college baseball? Is JuCo really the better preferred option over D2 or D3? If so, why?

Brendan Gawlowski

2:36

It's player- and program-specific. What do you want out of college baseball? Do you just want to play? Do you want to develop with an eye toward pro ball? How important is it to stay close to home? Tons of factors, no blanket answers.

2:37

That said: If you're a player who wants to get drafted soon, obviously going to a JuCo can help you do that more quickly than going to a four-year school.

Sir Nerdlington

2:37

The Giants list of prospects looks like a grab bag of mediocrity. I can see there being interesting pieces to acquire a Donovan given the Cards longer time horizon, but do they really have 'enough' to lure a better player (albeit with a year less of control) in Hoerner?

Brendan Gawlowski

2:39

Sure they have enough. Just as an intellectual exercise, look at all the 40+ names on SF's list. Would Chicago say no to ALL of them? Of course not. And that's before considering how big-league pieces could also move the needle.

Klubot3000

2:39

If Emerson's swing change last May is indicative of his ability to lift now, is there a reasonable argument to be made he could be a 60? As you wrote in your write up, there's just SO much to like about the offensive performance and if the defense is arrow up, might he ascend up into that top 5 overall prospect range?

Brendan Gawlowski

2:41

I think Emerson is more likely to be very good than just about anyone else on these lists. I think his odds of going supernova and throwing down a couple of 6+ win seasons are lower than a lot of the guys surrounding him on the top 20. We tend to push the latter group towards the tippy top of the list but that's a philosophical choice.

War2D2

2:41

Hi Brendan! Fwiw when I read your last name I imagine a gruff 1970s-cop-show police chief chewing you out, saying “you’ve gone too far this time, Gawlowski! You’re a loose cannon!”

Brendan Gawlowski

2:41

I dig it.

Not Eric Karros

2:41

Welcome, Brendan! What kind of realistic upside do you see for Kyle Karros (currently slotted in as starting 3B in Col)? He has the glove, and is 6-5 220. Will they give him fair runway and can he find real power?

Brendan Gawlowski

2:42

I'm not on Karros. Up/down guy for me.

2:42

Hey Brendan. Excited that you're going to be doing chats! What did you think of Arjun Nimmala's season in Vancouver?

Brendan Gawlowski

2:42

Very encouraging. Lovely hands at short, think there's a real breakout possibility at the plate as he continues to get stronger.

beanbong

2:42

From just looking at the lists that have been released so far, it seems like more players are getting 50s compared to the last couple years. Is this a sign of an improved prospect class or a focus on upside rather than median among you and Eric?

Brendan Gawlowski

2:46

Maybe a little bit of both but I've been gently pushing us to expand our horizons on what a 50 looks like. Basically, if we think he can play, I want us to push the guy sooner. I think it's useful for readers and it reflects how teams are valuing guys, particularly hitters. But also I don't want to completely disrupt what Eric has built here and what you all are accustomed to. It's a balance. But with the Pirates, I was writing our equivalent to "50" far, far more frequently than we'll do so here.

Alec

2:46

If you could bless one prospect with a guaranteed season of no injuries who would you bestow this to and why is the correct answer Jonny Farmelo?

Brendan Gawlowski

2:47

Farmelo's in the conversation. Daniel Espino? Brandon Barriera? His stuff was really crisp last season, I just want to see him healthy for his sake, nobody deserves all these injuries.

Desert Deserter

2:47

Demetrio Crisantes missed a lot of time last season but seemed to be continuing his strong data -- do you think his bat is or will be strong enough to carry him as a starting 1B eventually?

Brendan Gawlowski

2:47

He could be a regular at second

Turang Test

2:48

Is Bryce Eldridge the guy the Giants hope he is? Or is his 2025 AAA/MLB production indicating he’s more likely a bust?

Brendan Gawlowski

2:48

Very interesting bat, do not write him off

Adam

2:48

For those unable to actually see players live, is there anything in box scores that we really should keep an eye one? What numbers on prospects FanGraphs page are the most important to pay attention to?

Brendan Gawlowski

2:49

Visual eval and statistical eval are surprisingly different animals. But for both hitters and pitchers, evaluating contact/miss rates in various ways is a good start.

Thomas Duff

2:49

Thoughts on Tyler Black Milwaukee

Brendan Gawlowski

2:50

I think he finds a way to be useful. What an odd skill set.

Jim

2:51

What do you think of the A's farm system?

Brendan Gawlowski

2:51

A whole lot more than I did 12 months ago. Average.

Dodgers Blue

2:52

From a pure fandom aspect, who were some of the players you personally enjoyed scouting the most across your career?

Brendan Gawlowski

2:53

A lot of Rockies were interesting in one way or another. So many guys who had paths forward just stuck in the worst place to grow. Roldy Brito was maybe my favorite player to scout last year; threw a Zobrist comp on him.

Okra

2:54

Of course there is no way to know for sure, but in your opinion if an org instructed their pitchers to throw at 95%, their run prevention would be __% worse?

Brendan Gawlowski

2:54

What an interesting question. I don't have an answer but you've had me thinking for like 20 minutes.

Guest

2:54

Do scouts talk at all with other scouts in different regions or orgs? How excited were you guys about Skenes?

Brendan Gawlowski

2:56

We talk all the time. There's a fair bit of shadow boxing to it at first: The game of scouting the other scouts is a fun one. We kind of speak in recs: restaurants, hotels, etc. You can learn a fair bit about someone by how they play that game and it sort of informs how much you trust them on other things. Over time, you make friends with a few.

Alec Asher Wojchiechowski

2:56

How do you view Zach Cole? Can he be a Matt Wallner-esque hitter?

Brendan Gawlowski

2:57

I don't think he sees the ball well. I'm skeptical, which is a shame because he's very toolsy.

Guest

2:58

What should Nats fans look for in Eli Willits' development in his first full season?

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