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Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 1/20/2026
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Brendan Gawlowski
2:02
Hello everybody. Blue Jays list went live today, Guardians list went live last week. If you haven't seen 'em, take a look.
Away we go
Potato
2:02
Great Job with the Jays system! Any rough order for the next few to come out?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:03
Angels for me next week. Eric is working on Phillies, then Detroit. James will have Houston or St. Louis sometime before prospect week, I don't recall which.
We're also balancing these lists with other Prospect Week content, so... much to come
Nick
2:03
How does a prospect's organization impact your evaluation (if at all)? For example, Ethan Holliday with the Rockies (haven't developed bats well recently) vs Ethan Holliday with the Dodgers/Brewers/etc?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:05
I try to scout the player first and foremost. Was a little frustrating back with the Pirates when I had systems that did not tend to develop certain things well because I knew there was a good chance that my reports were going to wind up heavy. But that's the way it sorta has to be. For FG, I try to make a note when a player's dev context either lines up particularly well or poorly with his org. Savvy readers probably have the patterns mostly worked out.
2:06
Jake Cook and Blaine Bullard with the Jays are good examples of guys who are candidates to exceed b/c their org is very skilled in the exact area they most need to buff up
Jonathan
2:06
What would be a good example of someone you'd consider aggressively assigning a 50 FV to that Eric might need some gentle nudging to come around on?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:08
It's not so much nudging as him tolerating/allowing my enthusiasm to shine on younger bats. Emil Morales is a good example.
Mike
2:08
Off the cuff reaction on draft class quality the last few years? 2023 and 2024 strong? 2022 and 2025 below average? How does 2026 stack up so far?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:09
'22 looks pretty bad in hindsight. '23 has a shot to be the best of the decade.
Jonathan
2:09
Do you guys have a plan for updating already-released team lists with the recent IAFAs?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:10
I will check with Eric about that. I suspect yes but don't quote me.
Guest
2:10
Who is the guy you are considering for the hundo this year that was furthest away from consideration at this time last year?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:11
Ooh, interesting question. I wasn't here for those discussions, but just speculate... Which pitcher made a huge velo jump... hmm. Oppor perhaps?
Hard Hittin' Mark Whiten
2:11
did we all get too excited about Kristian Campbell, or is his skill set/setup so weird that his upper and lower end are more extreme?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:12
I think the variance was always part of the profile, for the reason you mentioned. I'm not out on him by any stretch.
MrMet
2:12
What's your take on Aroon Escobar and his future with the Phillies?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:14
If you're a prospect where Dombo's pulling the strings, decent chance you'll wind up elsewhere. I have no intel, it's just how he rolls. Crowded infield, too.
Alex
2:15
I've heard some people mention that Luis Hernandez will start stateside. If he starts in the complex league and makes it to A ball San Jose by the end of the season - how does that impact his evaluation?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:15
It would impact it positively, in the sense that he's not getting to SJ unless he really performs on the complex.
alexis anthopolous
2:15
Hey Brandon. Bigger impact down the stretch, Gabby Jesus or Kai?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:15
Who is Brandon?
Chen Barrington
2:16
Without spilling too many secrets, was there a profile of hitter and/or pitcher that you thought the Pirates over or undervalued? Were there any clear mandates to find players that fit X profile?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:17
This might not be exactly what you're asking, but I thought we could be kind of quick to lump pitchers in the 1-2 x through the order bucket.
Greg
2:17
Do you think public side analysts are overconfident, underconfident, or just the right amount of confident when evaluating teams player dev capabilities? It's always seemed to me that there's such a small sample size of players and such a gigantic number of factors in any one player's development that maybe we are too quick to crown or clown various teams player dev capabilities
Brendan Gawlowski
2:20
It's a good question, but also a broad one. I think you're instinct is sound, and in that spirit, it's important to keep refreshing your impressions of org competence/deficiency as people behind the scenes change or new info becomes apparent.
The Nats started getting better w/developing arms, for just one example
Alex
2:21
How many international amateur free agents in a typical year end up having MLB careers? Just a few on average?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:21
A lot. Some are big bonus guys, some are gonna sign for $10k and are not visible at all right now
Silly Little Guy
2:22
How do you weigh your prospect evaluations? 50/50 on where they are now versus peak projection, or different values on each?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:23
It's a forecast of what they're going to do. For some guys, especially younger ones, there's a lot projection on size and skill. For others, there's a what you see is what you get flavor. It just depends on the player.
Tom
2:23
When working for the Pirates, did you scout players in other systems through your organization's lens? Meaning, if the Pirates developmental program focused on certain qualities, would that alter your assessment of a player? Was it about identifying guys who would be a better fit with Pirates dev than their current org?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:25
Great question, and yes, teams scout with an eye toward what their own org prioritizes and develops well. And I always liked scouting teams that were not as good at developing the traits that PIT excels with.
Mike
2:25
Not a prospect anymore, but what’s your evaluation of Colson Montgomery going forward? In his big league debut he didn’t exactly silence any concerns about his whiff rate, but his power and defense were good enough that he produced like a quality regular anyway. Do you think he can continue to produce that way or is more likely the whiffs end up being too much of an impediment to be anything beyond a 2ish win guy
Brendan Gawlowski
2:26
Well, first, a two-win guy would be a 50 and that's a very good player. I suspect he's a power/hit regular.
Guest
2:26
The Rangers are another that seem to have recently improved developing arms. What changed in their process to facilitate this improvement?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:27
Good question, disappointing answer upcoming: I'm not sure but I will try to answer this in the post-list essay/overview at the bottom.
Incidentally, I really like writing those and I hope people enjoy them. I sort of wonder if they should be toward the top of the page instead of the bottom.
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