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Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 1/20/2026
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Guest
2:29
For all this talk about how great the dodgers system is, I have yet to see any actual players live up to the hype. Like, they have only produced a couple mid relievers, Andy Pages and Will Smith (And Michael Busch) in the last 5 years. Is there a reason why their system is so overhyped?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:30
Setting aside the players you listed who have lived up to the hype... The Dodgers are good at developing guys quickly, and getting them to their... not exactly end point, but getting them closer to it faster than most orgs. Their guys may have less growth/projection ahead than others. Sometimes this has an inflationary effect. Miguel Vargas is perhaps an example of this at work. Diego Cartaya too.
Colton
2:32
Coronado's write up reads like an Arraez 2.0 with actual plate discipline but even less power. On the flip side there's guys with potential 20 hit tools and 80 power (Murakami) that if they just get to even just a minus hit they are arguably all stars. How tough is it to discern who's outlier tool is worth seriously reading into and who's is not?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:33
It's a game of looking for who can give you just enough. I'm a little skeptical that, say, Zach Cole can hit enough to let the tools play, but he's another guy where if you think he can have a 30/35 bat, you've got a real player.
Maria
2:33
When a prospect grade is missed, what normally happened? A bad reading on a radar gun? A mixed up report? Colt Keith, for example, was once given a 70 grade raw power.
Brendan Gawlowski
2:35
Projecting comes with the obvious risks. "This guy, at this size and age, should grow into this level of power based on my priors." Sometimes guys are going to fall short of that eval, for all sorts of reasons. Maybe the body was maxed, maybe the guy gets hurt, maybe he's not much of a lifter.
Shane
2:35
How far through the system do you think Eli Willits will go this season?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:36
AA wouldn't shock me.
Schmegs
2:36
I had an old question return to me reading Ralph Velaquez's write up. It seems like catchers who are pushed off the position because of defense usually head to 1B or DH. I've always thought that even a bad defensive catcher should have pretty good reflexes, a decent arm and some baseball instincts. All that sounds like a 3B to me. Why don't we see that move more often? Maybe it happens more than I think because it happens in MiLB but I mostly think of Josh Donaldson and Brandon Inge for the C to 3B move and not much else.
Brendan Gawlowski
2:38
Russell Martin, too. I hate to always say "it depends" but it really does. If you move a guy early, when he still has legs, you can get an outfielder. Bryce Harper is probably the most famous example of that. Third can be a fit for guys who are really athletic -- you can add Russell Martin to that list, even if he wound up back behind the plate eventually. Oftentimes though, guys move off because they're not athletic enough back there, and that usually means 1B or DH. Briceño is another one who will probably do that.
Maria
2:38
Fantasy question: Am I crazy to think Tyler Soderstrom could match Pete Alonso's production this season?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:39
No, I'm really bullish on Soderstrom. His splits at 1B/LF were nuts last year. This guy has never had a chance to just settle at one spot and focus on hitting at an age-appropriate level for long. Things could get nutty
e
2:39
when talking about org dev issues, how do you separate poor development versus poor talent acquisition? e.g. the Rockies have had a number of recent high profile prospects (Condon, Amador, Veen, etc) who have stalled or regressed significantly in recent years, do you attribute that more to their lack of dev or more that they were very flawed prospects to begin with?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:42
In recent years, the Rockies amateur scouting staff/draft apparatus was pretty solid. Maybe not best in class -- and they had whiffs, Hughes was an overdraft, Montgomery was really risky for that spot in the draft -- but more than enough to be competitive. Not just my opinion either, a lot of scouts who cover the system would say the same thing. But a lot of guys didn't get any better. You can even see the issue at work in the guys who did make it: Tovar and Goodman are good players but they're also very flawed. Talented enough to make it even without a lot of seasoning, basically.
Greg
2:43
Are you a believer that Oneil Cruz still has breakout potential? Or is he more likely to stay a wildly unique 2 WAR player?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:44
Starting to think he just doesn't see the ball well enough to be more than a good, frustrating player. Still has the tools to go supernova, obviously, but last year was kind of a turning point for me.
wheelhouse
2:44
is jasson dominguez realistically even a 1.5 WAR player at this point? showed next to nothing in his rookie season, bad enough that he lost his job
Brendan Gawlowski
2:45
I think he can still be a 50.
MJS
2:47
Thoughts on some underrated prospects in the Marlins farm system that’s now filled with depth?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:48
That system is so deep, going to be a nightmare to cover (complimentary). Of the guys they got in those recent swaps, Dillon Lewis is the one I've got my eye on.
Colby
2:49
which 25  draftee that didnt debut last year are you most interested to see?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:49
Ethan Conrad.
Henchman
2:49
I always scroll down to read the system summary, for what it’s worth.  I can’t focus enough to care about the 28th best prospect on the Angels, but I do want a sense of how the system is doing.
ER
2:50
Thoughts on Jonah Tong... do you think his outlier profile works to the point he's a 2-3 MLB SPer or do you see him as a bullpen arm?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:50
I'm a little skeptical. Not convinced he has a good enough breaking ball.
KevinT
2:51
As a high stakes fantasy player, one thing I have noticed is the acceleration of prospect development windows and when players are making it to the majors. Particularly pitchers, guys you pegged last year as arrival windows for 2027/28 were up in 2025. Have promotion timelines become more variable, more truncated, or just a great batch of MLB ready pitchers the last few years?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:53
They're getting accelerated for a variety of reasons. College players have less developmental runway than they used to; the minor leagues are smaller; teams are more willing to move players aggressively if it looks like they've conquered the level; teams want pitchers to use their bullets where it matters. There's probably some behind the scenes pressure in some orgs to move guys quickly as well.
KevinT
2:53
Whats the deal with airline food?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:53
The cracker bags are so small now.
Alex
2:54
Eric had Liam Doyle as his top prospect in last year's draft. Other outlets, such as BA, were lower on him due to the delivery, lacking secondaries, and relief risk. What do you think?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:55
Just reflects a lack of consensus at the top. I think Doyle is a perfectly fine choice as the top guy
Anon
2:55
There's speculation that MLB/Orgs want to cut the # of players in MiLB again in the next CBA. Could you see the MLB follow the NHL and have teams draft a player's rights and allow them to go to college for development/NIL opportunities?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:56
Nothing would surprise me at this point. I think it's a mistake -- removing short season ball has had deleterious effects on certain guys, Latin American hitters especially
TimM
2:56
Make me feel good about the Cardinals.  I am happy they have picked a lane, but does their system have what it would take to fuel a successful rebuild?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:56
You can turn a bad system into a good one pretty quickly even without a ton of big-league trade chips. And the Cards do have some guys to deal.
2:57
Obviously you have to execute, no guarantees, etc.
RT
2:57
It appears 3b is pretty weak league wide when it comes to the minors, why would you say that is?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:57
A lot of future 3B are still playing shortstop
Guest
2:58
I'm a big proponent of putting the system overviews at the beginning of the write-ups as opposed to the end. It's a little tedious to have to scroll past the guys with backup catcher or long reliever upside to get to your (and Eric's) writeups
Jimmy Crooks
2:58
When is the goal for the team prospect lists to all be completed?
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