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Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 2/10/26
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Brendan Gawlowski
2:26
He looked really good in High-A even when the numbers weren't there.
T2
2:26
Looking back at J-Rod and Kelenic makes me realize how hard it is to predict the future of prospects. What have been the biggest thing that differentiated them? Ability/willingness to adopt to the MLB pitching?  Is that nearly impossible to measure at minors?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:27
Some of the risks we knew were baked into Kelenic's profile -- particularly the swing and miss and spin recognition -- were worse than we thought. Intensity worked for and against him.
Gob Bleuth
2:31
What kind of prospect cost would a cj abrams deal set the blue jays back?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:32
Three years of control for a 3.5 WAR position player... A lot. Toronto could put together a depth package like what Texas did with Gore but they're vulnerable to someone with a better headliner topping the offer.
JT
2:32
Any particular prospects you’re excited to see in the WBC? If a guy (say Michael Arroyo for Colombia) has some massive performances against MLB comp, how much weight does that carry?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:33
You hit on the kind of guy I'm most interested in from a prospect standpoint. I wouldn't say it carries a ton of weight, small sample and all, but you're hoping he's not completely overwhelmed.
Colton
2:33
How often, if ever, does a hitter's passivity play into their hit tool eval? Bazzana's contact numbers show he should be a 55+ on the hit but he just doesn't swing enough and gets caught in bad counts as a result, so the strike out numbers stay elevated. Would he be a guy that could stop the seeming backslide in rankings if he just became a more aggressive hitter?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:34
Really hard to dial it up. I've had a few hitting guys tell me that (contrary to what I'd thought) they'd rather work on reeling a guy in than trying to make him more aggressive.
Dodgers Blue
2:35
Crazy that the Rockies cut Yanquiel Fernández on waivers (only to get picked up by the Yankees and subsequently booted from their 40-man).  Just recently, Fangraphs had him ranked as the #4 prospect in the Rockies system.  Do you have any insight as to what may be going on?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:36
Yeah, this surprised me too. Rough showing at AAA in '24 and the big leagues last year. Too early to give up on him though.
Strike!
2:36
Do you find it hard to get out of scouting mode if you're catching a game for fun?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:36
Yes.
ricky s
2:36
If the Angels' philosophy is to draft MLB-ready guys and skyrocket them to the bigs at an alarming pace, who are the anti-Angels?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:37
Everybody is more aggressive than they were 10 years ago. Anecdotally, it feels like Seattle has seemed to let their hitters dominate a level an extra month or two more than the average club, but I don't think there's anyone who's a huge outlier on that side.
rob
2:39
Given Schwellenbach's injury, who would you like to see take that spot? Fuentes?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:40
Fuentes could use a little more seasoning. Want to see him get the FB to the glove side and throw the split more consistently.
Inspector Houlihan
2:40
I fell for Pedro Pineda, Yeison Morrobel, and Yordany de Los Santos.  I was convinced each would have impact power.  Where am I going wrong?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:41
Hitting is hard. This demographic of player is getting crushed by the lack of short season ball.
Angles
2:41
Speaking of Angels development philosophy, I randomly thought of Ryan Johnson the other day, so I looked him up and it turns out he finished the season in the minors… in high A. What are they doing over there???
Brendan Gawlowski
2:42
Johnson has elite deception and funk, I kinda get why they wanted to see if it played at the highest level. I don't know if I'd have done it myself but easy for me to keyboard warrior that.
Dodgers Blue
2:42
I'm curious when you were scouting big speed guys, what exactly were you looking to come away with?  Time to get first-to-second?  Simple success rate stealing bases (although obviously a variable given pitcher/catcher they are facing)? Instincts on the bases?  Jumps on the pitcher?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:44
You want to see how the speed plays. You touched on some of that: home to first, first to third, home to second, etc. Instincts just as if not more important. And then defensively, how does the speed interact with the other components of the job. You wind up writing "speed plays down" a lot.
BP
2:44
Where would Roki Sasaki rank/grade out for you now?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:44
50
Wintry Mix
2:45
Will there ever be meaningful baseball development in Europe, enough where certain countries start having a reliable talent pipeline?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:45
I'm skeptical. Even the countries that kinda sorta play it have so many alternatives. Italy is in the cricket world cup right now, for instance.
Kate
2:46
Is Top 100 dropping tomorrow?  Thought that's what was said, but maybe I misunderstood.  Either way, really looking forward to it!  One of my favorite reads of the year!
Brendan Gawlowski
2:46
T100 will be Monday.
Prospect Week!!
2:46
Thanks for all the work! What article / bit of work are you most excited to share? Are there any pieces you think will shock or surprise us readers??
Brendan Gawlowski
2:47
I'll have a piece Thursday on some of the lessons I took from scouting the complex, with some commentary on how one particularly rough report wound up being a long-term positive for me. Was fun to write something other than a list.
Eric will have his "how's my driving" which is always a favorite of mine. Even though he's way too hard on himself.
Bryan
2:48
Do you think short season A ball will return?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:48
No, we're going the other way.
Mr. Burrito
2:51
Prospect ranking has been a cottage industry for long enough that we must have a fairly massive data set that could tell us the hit/miss rates for unaffiliated scouting groups such as Fangraphs, the Athletic, etc.. In other words, there must be enough rank-related data that we can answer this question: What % of prospects graded at, say, 50FV by the Athletic (or whomever) go on to produce 10 WAR (or 0, or 30 or whatever) in MLB? I'm wondering if MLB player development departments do that kind of thing? Or is the industry dynamic enough -- with improvements happening quickly enough -- that such an exercise would be lame?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:53
It's good to audit yourself and your department regularly. Results, the proof in the pudding, can be part of that equation... But just looking at "who was most right x number of years ago" is not the way I'd go about evaluating who can provide me the best information right now.
2:54
I think that applies for both teams and public sites
Among other things: What does FG's or BA's track hit rate from 2018 matter if there's been a big shift in personnel?
Zein
2:54
Emil Morales looks like a monster in the making. Is peak Austin Riley a fair comp?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:55
If you mean "good corner IF who hits 30+ homers several times" sure, but the specific comp doesn't light me up.
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