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Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 2/3/26
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Brendan Gawlowski
2:32
Nothing wrong with giving him a chance, would be surprised if he wins he job out of camp.
romorr
2:32
I'm greedy, I want both - Why Scouting in Person Remains Valuable - How Soon Can You Tell You’ve Made a Big Mistake in the Draft?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:33
I will try to get to both at some point. Surprised short-season is tracking so poorly here. Maybe because it isn't quite as relevant for fantasy baseball?
The person who voted "these are all meh" was one of the first 2-3 respondents, which had me a little panicked.
Ryan
2:34
Oh, do you think Henry Godbout is "not going to work out"? That's usually the right answer, but he showed well jumping straight to HiA. That's a good start.
Brendan Gawlowski
2:35
I pulled up some video on him and he's a fringy athlete with a sell-out-for-contact swing and 40 power. Don't love it.
Billy Ocean
2:35
Where would you rank Cam Schlittler in the top 100 had he not exceeded rookie eligibility last year? Ceiling of a #3 type?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:35
High, 55 tier
Guest
2:35
How far apart (if any) are Tong and Sproat as prospects?  If you were the Brewers and had a choice whom would you have chosen and why?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:36
Sproat ahead for me
Jk
2:36
Do you think Dillon Lewis is going to rank high on Marlins List?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:37
Could get a 40+. Have a source who likes him quite a bit. I love the power and bat speed, see as more of a 4th/platoon option but there's upside.
Matt Hague
2:37
Any thoughts on some of the Jays' younger 40-man roster players that only recently graduated prospect status? Jimenez, Loperfido, Clase, Schneider, Barger, Francis, Fisher, Fluharty... I think that's all of them
Brendan Gawlowski
2:39
Lot of these guys are what they look like. Barger has paths forward... Clase looks in hindsight like an early maturer, think he's a 4th/5th OF. Loperfido similar tier, can help. Fluharty/Schneider/Francis all great finds for their group.
DFJ
2:39
Is Coby Mayo bad?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:40
They're all incredible.
Jeremy
2:40
Is Jurrangelo just going to be developed as a right-handed pitcher? From a neutral fan perspective, that would be a bummer.
Brendan Gawlowski
2:40
Real misalignment here between "most fun" and "most likely to produce the most WAR"
Keith
2:42
Does Jack Leitet have another gear in him?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:42
It's in there, yes.
Canio
2:42
Thinking of Spencer Jones particularly, but a more general question: how good does a guy need to hit in AAA with a strikeout rate of around 35% to give you confidence he could actually hit in MLB? 170-180 wRC+?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:43
I don't think you can be particularly confident if he's striking out that much at any wRC+. Now, depending on the guy, you may think the potential juice is worth the squeeze even if the odds it works aren't great, which is where I'm at on Jones.
Ryan
2:43
My take on why the Short Season article trails is that, I have lower expectations of learning something new there. Isn't the answer somewhat intuitive, or at this point revealed by a few years of evidence? There are lots of studies out there that report stuff we already know... "Hey, turns out a diet of potato chips and coke zero is bad for you." This feels like that.
Brendan Gawlowski
2:44
Fair. We can get reductive on all of this though. "How soon can you tell you've made a big mistake?" When he plays like shit and is kind of a prick.
JD
2:45
"Sproat ahead for me" - say more. Is that being more down on Tong or more up on Sproat?  As a dynasty Sproat owner, and after a rough AAA year (yes, I know the last X starts at AAA were good), I'm intrigued.
Brendan Gawlowski
Billy Ocean
2:46
In general, about how many PA or IP for a player at the majors before we can comfortably say "this is what he is"?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:46
Depends on the player. Tapped out athletes will reach that point pretty quickly. We were exploring Homer Bailey's paths forward until he retired.
Splurgin
2:46
Which orgs would be best-positioned to benefit if the draft ends up getting reduced to 10 rounds? E.g. who's the best currently at undrafted signees?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:47
Great/fun question. The teams that are the best at finding complimentary pieces at smaller schools where the data is less reliable should be well positioned to slay.
Ryan
2:48
Odds that Framber takes a short term deal with opt outs? Does the attached draft pick make that deal more or less attractive to the signing club?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:48
Looking likely. Trying to think of recent examples of guys who signed this late who didn't take that kind of contact. I'm sure someone more recent than James Shields but the top of my head is letting me down here.
Oaktown Blues
2:49
Thank you so much for the insight on Montero's swing tendencies! We don't have access to the more granular data so it's hugely appreciated
Brendan Gawlowski
2:50
You're welcome, I wish I had a better way to view DSL AB's and give a better answer.
Daniel
2:51
Im curious how you feel about CJ Kayfus. I’ve had the impression that Eric has been lower than the consensus on him.
Brendan Gawlowski
2:51
I'm with Eric, think he can help, little skeptical he's a regular.
Peace and Glove
2:51
Might be a dumb question, but why are the young IFAs almost never pitchers? Is it because 16 year olds rarely have enough velo and nobody's comfortable projecting a kid that young to hit mid 90s?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:52
Teams sign of plenty of pitchers but are leery of giving them big bonuses for the reasons you mention and then also injuries.
Older signees are more likely to be pitchers because pitching ages very differently
Hobbs
2:52
River Ryan starts ________ games this season and has a era of _________
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