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Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 4/28/26
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JK
2:19
Thanks for all you do, your work and these chats are really enjoyable. Specifically thinking about Jhonny Level right now, but do scouts and industry pros ever forgive or dismiss a lower walk rate when the quality of contact is so good? I'm remembering a similar conversation around Kris Bryant as a prospect and while Level is no Bryant (yet), curious how that conversation can get shaped.
Brendan Gawlowski
2:19
Nobody is particularly worried about Level's walk rate right now.
He can be a little aggressive. You'd like to see the approach mature as he gets older. I've seen enough good takes from him to think it's possible.
2:20
He's also a teenager dominating Low-A. That's the big thing.
chuck
2:20
Please address franklin arias
Brendan Gawlowski
2:20
"Hello Franklin Arias"
drplantwrench
2:20
any word on whats going on with Kyren Paris? i remember the MVP level few weeks he was having last year, and was hoping hed get another shot
Brendan Gawlowski
2:21
Checking with a source on whether there's an injury
2:22
I don't really think he can hit
strudel
2:22
Is Alex McCoy turning himself into a prospect?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:22
He'll be in the 35+ section. 70 power, one note profile.
Nice find for SD. Small school NDFA
Jim
2:23
The Red Sox just called up Chad Tracy from AAA to manage in the show. How different is managing in AAA vs the majors? One is focused on development, while the other is focused on winning games.
Brendan Gawlowski
2:23
Very different. The experience managing a bullpen, even one with a lot of pre-planned activity tends to be useful, though.
2:24
Some of the other in-game stuff will present challenges. Coordinating with the video room on challenges, etc. Thought they had a play they should have reviewed in Tracy's first game, for instance.
Far more importantly: Entirely different media environment and personalities to manage
2:25
He's walking into a turbulent situation too. I'm sure he's excited for the challenge, but the degree of difficulty here is pretty high.
Ryan
2:25
How difficult is it to project the transition for DSL to the states or A ball? Has data and video improved quite a bit over the recent years? Does it still entail a lot of guesswork?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:25
Never scouted the DSL but from what I can gather, the jump from the DSL to the ACL/FCL is not as large as the complex to A ball.
2:26
Data/video much better on the team side than public
I have to stream hunt for complex video
Sir Nerdlington
2:26
Would love your advice. My son ('28 6'2" 175lb LHH catcher) is going to his first showcase this summer. He'll be fine-ish on the metrics, but he won't be an obvious stud. His standout skills are more the slow burn variety that appear in-game over time. What's the best way to show those types of things to college coaches?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:27
Find environments where those abilities will stand out more and where coaches will be around. Go to catching camps run by college coaches in the area if you haven't already
They Call Me Mr Tibbs
2:28
James Tibbs III has had a pretty loud start to the season. Do you see anything there as sustainable to move him from the estimation of platoon player to every day regular? Do you think it's likely he even gets a shot at the bigs in the Dodgers organization, or more likely a deadline trade piece for them this year?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:29
He could be an everyday guy. I'd just be speculating on whether he's a deadline piece, obviously it's a hard lineup to break into
Kwanbelievable
2:29
I find myself somewhat frequently in conversations about top 100 prospects where I do the equivalent of shrugging and saying it's anybody's guess if he'll actually live up to the pedigree. Obviously prospect rankings are helpful as a rough guideline of what a player *could* be, but is there a better way to think about it than there's basically a 50/50 chance a given player actually does something meaningful?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:30
You've probably got a feel for which prospects are safer and which ones are ranked because they might go "boom" even if it's not all that likely that they actually do it.
Statistically speaking, for the most part, only the very best prospects are a 50/50 to become regulars
2:31
If you're strictly trying to predict outcomes, below that 55 FV tier, you're mostly shading down from 50/50.
Eric
2:31
Any concern about Arroyo's (Sea) slow start?  He struggled a bit in his first taste of AA last year and doesn't seem to have adapted in the second go aound...at least so far
Brendan Gawlowski
2:32
Really hard place to hit. Twenty-one with an average line in April at AA. Seems fine.
It's not exciting when seemingly half the top 100 is going nuts out of the gate but it's still April.
Guest
2:32
Brendan, if you were the NYY how would you manage the Elmer Rodriguez/ Carlos Lagrange situation? Elmer got called up today and will start tomorrow. Do you see either of them moving to the bullpen in their future?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:32
Elmer is a starter, Lagrange a reliever for me.
Sparticus
2:33
Do ballclubs treat scouts and scouting departments, or are there significant differences in how they are organized and managed?  Is there a sense that one MLB scouting department is more 'prestigious' than another?  How much personnel movement is there among scouting and development programs?  In other words, how long does it take before an innovation developed by one team is adopted by others?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:33
Each department does things a little differently. Some have their scouts cover orgs top to bottom, others do it more regionally. Some switch things around every couple years. Some departments lean on their scouts heavily, others just use their reports to feed the model.
2:34
It's tricky to move between departments based on how contracts work in the game. You basically have to either let your contract expire or be head-hunted by another org.
Sporter's Five Horses
2:35
Thoughts on Andrew Alvarez? Was a little surprised he didn't merit a mention in Eric's write-up of the Nats...or maybe the rest of the Nats pitching staff is so bad that I'm seeing roses
Brendan Gawlowski
2:35
Depth starter, up and down type
Billy G
2:35
With the advent of ABS, how does that impact your evaluation and projection of command and control? Are you able to get any sort of approximation for the lower levels? Or just assume that guys BB rates will creep up due to it once they hit AAA / MLB? Will teams make sure pitchers hit AAA so they get experience with the system? Ignore it on the dev path?
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