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Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 5/5/26
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Brendan Gawlowski
2:14
Good changeup, fastball is a little deceptive, not sure he has the breaking ball for more than that.
Padres
2:14
Which player was the big disappointment in the padres list? You teased a disappointment in the chat last week. Wondering if you would explain? Thanks so much!
Brendan Gawlowski
2:15
Not so much a disappointment but it was Humberto Cruz
NFP
2:15
A lot of what causes prospects to pan/not pan out seems to be "hidden" from available data. In most cases, you can build that skepticism into a guy's report when he's still in the low minors, but for guys like Coby Mayo, who raked as a prospect and then cratered in the majors, how could scouts have predicted he'd get absolutely eaten alive by big league sliders?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:15
Can't speak for everybody, but I'm friends with a scout who was never on him all the way up the chain.
Guest
2:17
Walks are still high but last start was dominant. How close is Johnny King to the 100?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:17
Let's see how the rest of the year goes. Looking forward to seeing Vancouver soon, will have a notes piece on him I imagine.
Farhandrew Zaidman
2:17
Ben in his chat yesterday talked about "model blindness" and referenced Seam Shifted Wake, which didn't exist until it did. What else do you think we're missing in the data because it's hard/impossible to measure?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:18
Feel for the game, makeup, context behind the performances, people talking past each other on bat speed... plenty of things
Cody Bellinger's 5 O'Clock Shadow
2:19
Biggest instance of a non-prospect (in your eyes) who surprised you and ended up having success in the big leagues?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:20
There are a couple guys -- and will likely be more -- who I didn't think would make it and did. Fraser Ellard, Kyle McCann. I was a grade light on Max Schuemann, thought he was just an up and down guy.
Phil
2:20
How differently do you evaluate a guy who undergoes a more serious surgery (TJ, Shoulders etc) vs one that seems lesser but persistent like Aiden Miller's back?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:20
Case by case.
Back issues are scary. See Carter, Evan.
Ugueth Oviraptor
2:21
Do you think that the Pangaea during the Mesozoic era would have impacted performance after travel/Sunday-getaway games for dinosaurs?  I assume it would change the way we utilize international scouting?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:21
Incredible question
Jon
2:22
How about that Austin Charles fella?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:22
Huge dude, late bloomer traits. Encouraging that he's hitting in High-A.
JJ
2:23
Favorite dubious yet entertaining gambit? Mine is the Urusov
Brendan Gawlowski
2:23
Elephant
Alec
2:23
Minor league pitching prospects often don't have stellar stand-out base stats like ERA or WHIP even if they're developing well, whether it's due to shorter outings limiting strong starts or working on certain pitches as some examples. What would you say are some stickier areas to look at to see if a pitcher is developing well, assuming I don't have the ability to watch the games myself?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:24
Strikeouts, walks, hits. Innings a big one too. I don't know how all these pitchers who capped at 60-70 pitches are ever going to start.
David
2:24
Any signs of improvement in the first month of the year for Lazaro Montes? At a glance from AA last year to this year a slight uptick in Walks, Strikeouts and Contact %, anything else positive or Negative for him? Obviously this past week was absurd but just in general.
Brendan Gawlowski
2:25
Still himself. Still has a huge move and swing and I think he'll need to tighten it up at some point, but apparently he's going to get away with it at AA.
Farhandrew Zaidman
2:25
Are we on an inexorable march toward having 13 pitchers each throw 2-3 innings every other game, or has the death of the starting pitcher been greatly exaggerated?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:26
I don't think it'll quite reach that point but we're going to keep heading that direction until the league incentivizes teams to do something else.
Roger Clemens
2:26
what do you mean about the bat speed in the model
Brendan Gawlowski
2:27
There's a gap between how savant and most teams track bat speed -- which is peak bat velocity, or bat velocity at contact, or what have you -- and how scouts have traditionally evaluated bat speed -- which is more like 85% time from launch to contact and 15% bat velocity.
2:28
No scout in the world would have given Luis Arraez 20 bat speed
But he has 20 bat velocity
Both are useful and it's an area where scouts and analysts can talk past each other in my experience.
Don Caglianone
2:28
is Fraser Ellard the right guy you’re thinking of? the lefty CHW reliever who threw 41 big league innings and then retired?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:28
That's the guy
Steve O
2:28
Spencer Jones had a 51.4 K% and an 8.1 BB% in his first 8 games in really cold weather. Then a 25.5 K% and a 13.8 BB% in 23 games since then.
Brendan Gawlowski
2:29
He does this, I don't think it's weather related. You're just going to have to live with the hot and cold streaks.
Keith
2:29
Have you gotten a look at the Red Sox complex guys? Are any of Soto, Ramos, Rivas or Delzine looking like future top 100 guys?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:29
Soto is going to be there soon, possibly as soon as we do the list.
The Actor for Al Pacino
2:29
Most prominent prospect "archetype" that you are generally wary of? For example mine is the massive, lanky athlete with strikeout problems. I know, I know, "stay on the athletes", but high strikeout rates in low-level affiliated ball just don't do it for me
Brendan Gawlowski
2:30
The Schreck/Roden corner types
A good approach is not a carrying tool
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