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Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 6/30/26
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Forrest
3:41
What's surprised you about Colt Emerson's struggles thus far?
Brendan Gawlowski
3:41
I'm surprised he's so starkly traded the contact for power
3:42
He's also 20, so an acclimation period isn't super surprising
beanbong
3:42
do orgs have their own version of top 100 prospect lists? I remember you mentioning that Pitt had upwards of 200 guys with an everyday grade, is there a way to differentiate between no. 200 and no. 75?
Brendan Gawlowski
3:42
They have a bunch of lists but there's no SEO incentive to put a round number on any of them
lou-harrison-bader
3:44
re re: Sirota that was my thought as well.  For what it's worth (unless I am searching wrong) it looks like there are 4 hitters to put up a wrc+ north of 180 across 2 seasons above rookie ball level since 2016 and they are Juan Soto, Vlad jr. , Kevin Mcgonigle and Mike Sirota.
Brendan Gawlowski
3:44
I like Sirota
I suspect he's going to be very high on our next update
At the same time
3:45
He is running a 22% walk rate
He is not going to do that
at the big league level
Juan Soto's is 15%
Aaron Judge's is 16%
3:46
The walks are floating his topline production in a way that is not going to translate directly
LenFuego
3:47
Manuel Pena has a .314 average, 26 HRs and 5 SBs at Reno this season so far, but last got a mention in the D-Backs prospect list in 2023 (and that was in the "other prospects" area).  Did you guys miss something or is this just a fluke?
Brendan Gawlowski
3:47
He's on the long list of guys to write about
3:48
To clarify though, he did all that at Amarillo
At Reno he's still homerless in 44 PA's
Graham Lewis
3:50
What’s up with Eldridge’s K rate in the majors?
Brendan Gawlowski
3:50
Way down; very exciting
tjryan607
3:51
Is Genoa kind of a now-typical CLE middle infield prospect losing luster as he advances with below average power and speed?
Brendan Gawlowski
3:51
No
wiguy94
3:52
Brewers promoted Josiah Ragsdale to AA after putting up a 151 wRC+ in A+. He wasn't on the Brewers list to start the year. Is there anything there?
Brendan Gawlowski
3:53
Please check back in next week, I'll take a longer look
canderson20
3:54
Do you have an easy way to discern between a prospect being patient or being passive? If they're swing % is below 40 I typically rule them out as being too passive to translate but I'm afraid I might end up whiffing on guys if I just use that benchmark alone.
Brendan Gawlowski
3:55
Easy way, no, I think the chase vs. chase with two strikes is the closest thing statistically but I'd also want to watch a bunch of at bats
mid-high 30's raises an eyebrow for me but it's not enough by itself to say 'passive' in all cases
lou-harrison-bader
3:56
thanks for answering, you don't need to post this but I wish i could thumbs up your replies.  I appreciate the responses.
Brendan Gawlowski
3:56
You're welcome; there's always a bunch of these in the queue too, and I notice and appreciate the kind words
Phillip Denny
3:57
JJ Wetherholt falling to 7 in the 2024 draft still irks me, but in hindsight I'm not sure where the obvious higher pick would have been for him. Maybe Rockies at 3? But at the time Condon seemed like a consensus top 3 pick, and if the Rockies had a do-over they might just go with Kurtz instead.
Brendan Gawlowski
3:57
Just a really good draft
K’d Cavalli
3:58
How do you adjust developmental timelines for cold weather prep prospects? Thinking Luke Dickerson, Dax Whitney,  Essenburg?
Brendan Gawlowski
4:00
Case by case, boring answer. As a scout I'd be inclined to stay on my hit tool projection longer for a player in that demo, even if they struggle for a while, compared to a guy who went to IMG and an SEC school, for instance
Phillip Denny
4:00
The Josh Naylor-Stone Garrett incident is getting re-litigated in the news given the Austin Hedges thing this week. Where does "stabbed a teammate in a prank gone wrong" fall in the continuum of character concerns?
Brendan Gawlowski
4:00
I had forgotten all about that
LenFuego
4:02
How do you put a future value on command/control?  For all the other scouting measures, I get how you might project in the future based on bat speed and other measurables, but for control it seems almost impossible to project into the future.
Brendan Gawlowski
4:03
It's a hard one. Project big on athletes with clean deliveries, loose/short arm swings
It doesn't always pan out, but that's about all you can do
Okay folks, gonna shut it down here today
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