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Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 7/21/26
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Brendan Gawlowski
2:01
Hello everybody
Some housekeeping
I wrote about Manuel Pena so that people would (hopefully) stop asking about him in the chat: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/because-you-asked-evaluating-manuel-pena/
2:02
In about 30 minutes, I also have a new series starting where I take a look at the guys whose performance has most deviated from where I had them projected this offseason
I'm pretty excited about this. First up is Brandon Valenzuela, I'll link out to it when it goes live
I've also got a Braves trade deadline/prospect list re-order in the hopper, that should run tomorrow or Thursday
2:03
Finally, Eric and I are working furiously on a T100 update. The list itself is just about done, we're building some supplementary content around it and making our final orderings. That will also go live soon, possibly tomorrow.
Okay, let's chat
ajleff
2:03
The vibe around the Mets farm system hasn’t been great this year. Do you agree it’s been a down your for them overall?  If so, why don’t think that is? And any danger of it becoming a pattern?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:03
Ewing and Benge have launched successfully, so that's a big win.
2:04
The upper level pitching has stalled in a disappointing way
Wenninger and Tong don't look great
2:05
Obviously they dealt from strength in the winter, and so with the grads, it looks a little thin right now. I'm overall not worried about their ability to develop talent.
richwp01
2:05
White Sox had largest bonus pool and 1-1. Did they end up with a top 3 draft? What were your thoughts on the trade for pick 34?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:06
I don't know if it was top 3, they got Roch so it's already pretty good. I liked the trade concept. Was Thome a slight reach there? Maybe, but it seems like they really like the player.
2:07
Good value in the two picks after that
Baseball Learner
2:07
Arrows are up on Dax Kilby? Has he overcome the prior injury concerns he had coming into the season? And does that make him solid trade bait?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:07
He has four plate appearances, how could the arrow possibly be up
It's great that he's on the field
Let's leave it there for now
Festivus
2:08
How high would you run Angeibel Gomez up a set of updated rankings right now?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:08
eyeseyeseyes
OddBall Herrera
2:08
I hear a bunch of talk about how the ball in the minors is exaggerating EVs and power numbers.  This is used to generate some skepticism for power jumps like Franklin Arias', for example.  But his wRC is great, and that's adjusted to league environment - is the suggestion that it disproportionately helps guys with elite hit tools?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:09
It seems like the drag change is substantial. I don't know if it's inflating EV's, I suspect either no or not much based on how many minor leaguers have either maintained or only slightly augmented their measurable power year over year.
Baseball card numbers are going to be inflated: homers, slug, etc.
2:10
My hypothesis is that guys with good hit tools and fringy power derive the most benefit from it w/respect to things like homers, slug, even wRC+
pmaguran
2:10
Jake Bloss...still a top 100, 50 FV guy based on performance YTD?  Overall numbers don't look great due to a couple of  rough starts, but i've read the stuff looks to be back.
Brendan Gawlowski
2:10
Yes, he'll still be on there. Stuff looks good, feel for location is a work in progress.
2:11
Arm strength is back
Big Fan
2:11
Braves POBO Alex Anthopoulus gave a radio interview today and said there's one guy in the system who's not "untouchable", but is in the next tier.  Do you think that's Hartman? Southisene?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:11
I'd imagine it's Hartman
Spoiler, he's going to be the top Brave
baltic wolf
2:12
Good afternoon Brendan:  I'm in a deep (16) 12 keeper points league and we have seven slots for minor league prospects. Two are good:  Jesus Made and Ethan Holliday should help me next season.  Ronny Cruz I keep cuz I'm a Nats fan. It's your opinion on Tyler Bell and Chris Hacopian that I need.  Thanks!
Brendan Gawlowski
2:12
Not a fantasy expert by any means, but when in doubt I'd take the Rockie
Rocky?
crossedup
2:12
Mariners Josh Caron took a large step forward in results but underlying contact data looks similar if not a bit worse. Anything interesting there or just a guy elevating the ball in a small park.
Brendan Gawlowski
2:12
Third catcher prospect
dan norman lear
2:13
What are the matches of draftee to organization you are most excited about in terms of development skill sets/upside potential?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:13
Great question. Blair to TB, Curiel to PIT jump out immediately
andecobi
2:13
At what point should I just not care about a prospects walk rate because their swing rate is so low? I’m staring at Gillen’s 41 percent rate at High A. What’s the cutoff here, like 44 percent?
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