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Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 7/21/26
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Brendan Gawlowski
2:37
Contact rate and iz contact rate, but I think watching him would give a better indication than the numbers. Is he still adjusting his bat path and making contact with all sorts of pitches in all locations? Is he still seamlessly making mid-flight adjustments? Is he able to do it against the very best arms he's facing?
njwr
2:39
If the draft had happened on Sunday instead of Saturday, how many picks in the first round do you think would have ended up being the same? 100%? Or are there true 50-50 picks that would disrupt the entire order if a team flips a different mental coin?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:40
I think it's more a case where, if the draft was a day later, all of the work and prep would have started a day later vs. everybody has been fully prepped for weeks and are letting late-breaking signals shift strategy
if that makes sense
Jonathan Adelman
2:40
A baseball friend talked about when the Rockies drafted Dollander he cringed not because of Coors but because it was a religious, straight-laced org and a kid from a major party school and a "brash" program. That seems like a terrible over-generalization to me but are there ever real cases where amateurs and orgs misalign to the point where the org won't take the kid even if he's BPA?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:40
Taking Dollander out of this completely, there are cases where player and org don't align well.
2:41
There is team context to "best player available"
Big Fan
2:41
Do you tend to get more questions about particular orgs?  I wonder if you see any patterns - Braves fans care more, the top systems get more engagement, the biggest markets naturally have the most interest, etc.
Brendan Gawlowski
2:43
There are orgs where fans seem less invested in prospects than others. Media market is a big factor obviously. I maybe get more Braves and Mariners questions than I'd have guessed... For whatever reason, seems like there aren't as many from SFG and SDP fans.
R.B. Urgess
2:44
Lots of "reliever risk" discussion around Liam Doyle and Jarlin Susana. Obviously, Susana has to get healthy and back on the mound first, but do you expect their teams to give them every chance to start or is there a fast track to RP ahead of them?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:44
Every chance to start
2:45
Hey, the Brandon Valenzuela piece is live: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/wait-what-brandon-valenzuelas-breakout/
I'm excited for that one
Aaron
2:45
Is Braylon Doughty a top 100 guy now?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:45
eyeseyeseyes
njwr
2:46
The Mariners are known for being great at developing pitchers. Less so hitters. Why would that be? The makeup of their minor league coaching staff? Their player acquisition focus/methodology? Or, put a slightly different way, why have they been so bad at developing bats relative to pitchers?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:47
Are they bad at it? Cole Young is playing well, Emerson went from HS to the big leagues in less than three years, two more T100 guys knocking on the door in Tacoma...
2:48
That said, acquisition and development is hard. There are only so many good players. There are lots of teams trying to find and build the good ones. To do that, you need talented people in the front office, good scouts, quality coaches, etc. It's like a Germanic board game, you only have so many resources and you inevitably are going to be stronger in some areas than others.
2:49
There are a lot of reasons for that, one of which is if your org is showing a competence for acquiring or developing a certain type of skill or player, clubs that are not good at those things are going to try to hire coaches/coordinators/employees/etc. away from your org.
Phil
2:50
Who the heck is Tyron Guerrero? His Fangraphs page looks like an international journeyman who has been bad in every country where he has mostly not pitched. The guy on my TV is an unhittable strikeout monster. Is this an identical twin prank? More seriously, did you have him on your radar as a candidate for a triumphant return?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:50
Him throwing strikes is one of those things I need to see with my own eyes to belive, he was a 20 command guy forever
CherryTomato
2:51
Speaking of post-TJ guys, would AJSS still get a 50 FV if he hadn’t graduated?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:51
Yes
Fangraphs Man
2:53
I just realized that Tyron Guerrero is the same guy who couldn't throw strikes for the marlins half a decade ago, I thought he was a totally different random reliever coming out of no where to throw 102
Brendan Gawlowski
2:53
It's insane
mike sixel
2:53
Do the Twins, or other teams, keep Jenkins down all year, so he's not in the 40 man of there's a stoppage? Or because, in this case, he might win rookie of the year in their mind?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:53
I suspect he'll be up soon
nebravesfan33
2:53
Cedric De Grandpre was promoted to Gwinnett coming off of a strong 4-5 starts. Any movement for him on the Braves list?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:54
Yes he'll be on the list
It's mostly not a complete re-eval... More shuffling some guys at the top, accounting for grads, placing the draft guys... But there will be 3-4 adds from the HM section, including CDG
2:55
Polo and Drake too
TeeSto11
2:55
Have you heard any reports at all on Michael Arroyo's defense in left field this year? I haven't really come accross anything, and that defensive value seems like a pretty big factor on if he's a positionless bat or someone who could be a real everyday player going forward
Brendan Gawlowski
2:55
Let me get back to you in two weeks, I'll see him in TAC next week.
That said, the glove is only going to help so much here. He'll hit enough to play a lot or he won't.
Big Fan
2:55
BG, do you think we'll see a day 2 draft recap?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:56
With everything else going on, probably not but don't quote me on that
bluejayprospectus
2:57
What would you do in the Blue Jays shoes? If you say sell what type of haul could they realistically get at the deadline, enough to make them a top 15 farm?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:57
Next ten days are going to be big for them, if I was TOR I'd be planning for all contingencies.
Big lift for the office and scouting groups
slamcactus
3:00
It's tough for me to square the Mariners' reputation as pitching development geniuses with the fact that they haven't developed a single quality pitching prospect from their international scouting efforts in recent years. They've had great results with college guys and Sloan looks very good, but they sign dozens of pitchers every year from Latin America and not one of them has cracked the top-30 in the past few years in a shallow system. Thoughts?
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