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Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 9/8/26
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beanbong
2:44
what's a reasonable ceiling to dream on for Conor Essenburg? Something like Ian Happ or Teoscar where there's plenty swing and miss but enough thump to cover for it?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:44
Feels reasonable enough.
perryspeedrun
2:45
Has Eric communicated his thoughts (self proclaimed obsession) with Grindlinger yet?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:45
On multiple occasions
Tyler Banks
2:45
How much does a period of struggle following a promotion affect the view of a prospect with a lot of helium? Thinking Braves players - Eric Hartman, Conor Essenburg, etc
Brendan Gawlowski
2:45
Depends on the player/what the issue is
2:46
Jefferson Rojas looked like a talented guy going through a slump while acclimating to a new level of competition
He didn't seem totally overwhelmed, or exploitable in ways that looked damning, even though the numbers were awful
2:47
And now, who even remembers his 2025 AA performance now that he's torn the cover off the ball for a year at that level
Celesten, meanwhile, is struggling with the exact things that have long looked like the potential stumbling blocks
2:48
Doesn't mean it's time to jump off the guy entirely, but it's a different conversation than Rojas
As for Hartman and Essenburg specifically, I'm going to punt and blame vacation, feel free to ask again next week when I've gotten a little more up to speed
emanredsfan
2:49
While I agree, Mey’s walk rate is down to 9.5% since he was recalled
Brendan Gawlowski
2:49
I'd be surprised if that's the new normal
2:50
Relievers can do all sorts of weird things, good or bad, in a month's sample
philly
2:50
I’ve seen a couple people now including you mention that a lack of deception is the key factor explaining Bobby Miller now living up to his rankings. How can we pick that up in the next guy like him?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:52
Good question, not an easy answer. As a scout, there are things I'm looking for: does he have a slow arm? Does he show the ball to hitters for a long time (this can be a problem for open striders)? Is his stroke nice and easy for a hitter to time?
2:53
And then on the results end: Does this guy get hit harder than it looks like his stuff should? If yes, can we work backwards and find a reason for that?
Part of the reason this is tricky though is that guys with good stuff and bad deception still work out sometimes. Miller himself was awesome as a rookie.
Turks Teeth
2:54
Eric seems to have become a Grindlinger superfan in your absence, even threatening to corral you into a Top 100 placement. You on board?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:55
Sure. One of many reasons I think we work well together is that each of us is pretty willing to let the other bet big on a guy
We've 100'd a fair few guys pretty early that way
Honkus Wagner
2:56
do you think sirota and/or tibbs get moved this off season? hard to see where playing time will shake out with de paula being added to the 40 man and their current log jam
Brendan Gawlowski
2:56
Wouldn't surprise me. Davalan in that mix too. They continue to have strength in numbers in the outfield.
Justin Krupp
2:57
Trying to take out their projection or your feelings for them as prospects, are you more impressed with what Luis Hernandez has done as a 17 year old (great at the complex, surviving at A ball) or what Level has done as a 19 year old (crushed A ball, great at high A)?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:57
Hernandez's is the more impressive accomplishment
millvillemeltdown
2:58
welcome back brendan. what was your favorite thing eaten while on vacation?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:58
Arrosticini
They're a specialty in Abruzzo and they were incredible
2:59
Let me find the name of this restaurant
3:01
Margherita 1 in Piniella
an 80
3:02
One of those places where they don't even give you the menu
emanredsfan
3:02
What’s up with Connor Phillips? As a Reds fan he reminds me of Lucas Sims and that’s not a compliment. “Unhittable at times but can’t consistently get it done”
Brendan Gawlowski
3:02
Think that's just how it's gonna be
eccentricatlfan
3:02
Re: the deception question, also maybe that he has a noticeably different stride for certain pitches? (Doesn’t seem to be the case with Miller at a quick glance, but I’ve noticed when fooling around with Statcast’s minors search a few instances where the pitcher’s extension varies enough between pitch types that it’s more than a bit curious.)
Brendan Gawlowski
3:03
Sharp eye, this does happen. There are guys who telegraph what's coming in this way (and others)
MRDXol
3:03
Bonemer is apparently playing CF now. Bat's looking good in AA but defensive spot clearly up in the air... any hope to be passable out on the grass?
Brendan Gawlowski
3:03
He looked a little faster than I expected at the Future's Game but even with that in mind center was... not the first place I'd have though to project him.
Barbaro Garbey
3:04
Brendan- Any thoughts on the Tigers' Max Anderson? He has been tearing up AAA this year, yet the Tigers keep promoting other rookies up. Is it a lack of defense type issue, or is there some other reason you can speculate on?
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