You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Cardinals vs. Nationals NLCS Game 1 Chat
powered byJotCast
Ben Clemens
7:39
Hey everyone, and welcome to our chat for Game One of the NLCS.
7:40
Or if you'd prefer Dan's numbers in a handy chart, here are his game-by-game forecasts:
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/post-season-zips?seas...
Jason Martinez wrote about how the Cardinals built their roster:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/how-they-were-acquired-the-st-...
7:45
Ben Kaspick and I will be here throughout the game to chat with you about baseball.
And also very likely some not-baseball.
7:46
So we'll be back to answer some questions as the start of the game nears, but for now, feel free to ask anything you'd like, and we'll let the queue fill up for a bit.
Andy
7:57
Hi! New to fg.s. What's the probability percentage on the scores page before the game starts consist of, and where;s it derived from, or from whom, what outputs?
Ben Clemens
7:57
Hey, and welcome!
7:58
The way this works is that we have two projection systems, ZiPS and Steamer, that we use to project a talent level for each team, accounting for homefield advantage and which starter they are using and so on.
Then we use those and jam them into some arcane formulas that project a winner based on runs scored and runs allowed.
7:59
One thing I am not sure about is whether we are simulating the game a million times or just using a formula to come to an outcome.
I've tried both in building stuff, and they tend to agree very closely on outcomes.
5 Run Homer
7:59
I fully support head chatter Ben. Thanks for taking the time to do all these chats
Ben Clemens
7:59
That's right-- head chatter Ben's.
edlondon
7:59
How has Doo done against STL lineup? Nerves about no Hudson
Ben Clemens
8:00
Eh, he definitely hasn't pitched enough for the batter-pitcher matchups to matter, but I think you're right to be worried. The Cardinals lineup is predominantly righty and hits fastballs well.
So uh.
8:02
Here's a silly thing I like to do, and full credit to Craig Edwards:
Who you got?
Nats (66.7% | 46 votes)
 
Cards (33.3% | 23 votes)
 
Total Votes: 69
Who you *want*?
Nats (58.2% | 46 votes)
 
Cards (25.3% | 20 votes)
 
Just watching some baseball (16.5% | 13 votes)
 
Total Votes: 79
Tanner Rainey Stan
8:03
What's tonight's hierarchy in the Nats pen? Doolittle > Rainey > ???? > Trevor Rosenthal
Ben Kaspick
8:03
Hello everyone. Re: Hudson, I saw today (I believe in the Washington Post) that Dave Martínez said he's likely to use Tanner Rainey in Hudson's role.
Ben Clemens
8:04
The middle guys in the pen are much-maligned, but I think that Wander Suero is totally usable and am confused why he's not staying on the roster when Hudson returns.
8:05
Like, does Davey Martinez have a prop bet going that he can make it through the playoffs without using Austin Voth?
Jamie G.
8:05
Under what circumstances would Roenis Elias make it into the game?
Ben Clemens
8:05
My guess: extra innings or as a LOOGY to face Carpenter.
5 Run Homer
8:06
I’m learning a lot about the Nats pen already and none of it is making me happy
Ben Clemens
8:06
There are teams you *think* have bad bullpens.
And then there are the Tigers.
8:07
Then there's a gap, and then the Nats.
Like, wow.
5 Run Homer
8:07
What are the chances one of Washington’s Big 3 pitches tonight?
Ben Kaspick
8:08
I think there's a decent chance we see Corbin pitch in this game
The other two, not so much
Alfredo
8:08
I get it for a 1st child or twins, but a 3rd child? Really? Semi-serious
Ben Clemens
8:08
I mean, I'm not here to legislate morality, but there's a 100% chance I'd be doing the same thing as him.
8:09
Baseball is a super fun game, and it's great, and I'm sure he's great friends with his teammates.
And yeah, also he's having a kid. I'd take time off from my work for paternity leave no question.
Load More Messages
Connecting…