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Cardinals vs. Nationals NLCS Game 1 Chat
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Ben Clemens
11:24
So, at some point I'll try to run the math on that IBB
But my guess is it's excellent.
And by excellent, I mean an IBB that doesn't lower win expectancy
(that's about as good as they can get)
Ben Kaspick
11:25
Did not realize quite how good Kendrick has been this year. Goodness.
11:26
So...9th inning lead for the Nats with a two-run lead over the Cardinals in the postseason. Who remembers the last time that happened?
Ben Clemens
11:26
So, by the math, Kendrick needs to project about 14 points of wOBA better than Zim to break even.
11:27
He both does project better than that, and was MUCH better than that in the regular season
And that doesn't account for the 1-0 count.
Good IBB!
Wire Fan
11:27
Are the Nats the tougher match-up for the remaining AL teams?
Ben Kaspick
11:27
Yes
Ben Clemens
11:28
Yeah not close.
The Cardinals kinda suck, as playoff teams go.
Which is to say, they're still quite good.
Question for the chat, which I won't put to a poll because it's the ninth
Ben Kaspick
11:29
Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin would be tough, even for the Astros or Yankees.
Ben Clemens
11:29
Do you think that it's worth avoiding Rainey, even if he's a better matchup on average, because there's a chance he doesn't 'have it' tonight?
Whereas Doolittle has successfully not looked awful?
Ben Kaspick
11:30
Just like with Sanchez, I don't hate just sticking with Doolittle as long as he keeps getting people out.
Dystopian Future
11:30
Actually, I think there's another point in there, which is that Rainey walks far more batters. You don't want to give any free passes in a two-run game. Give up a homer, oh well. WALK a guy, uh oh. Walk is as good as a homer here, basically.
Brett
11:30
Yes, definitely.  Rainey is a walk machine.
Derek
11:30
I'd say similar situation to Sanchez at the end there... Let Doolittle go until a runner gets on.
Adam2
11:31
Thg power of even run leads!
Yo-Yo
11:31
Nah. There's no way to know that ahead of time. Gotta go with the numbers.
Ben Clemens
11:31
I'm very interested in this question actually. The idea of 'having it' is definitely something my heart believes.
Ben Kaspick
11:31
And it becomes a much different question in a one-run game.
Alex
11:32
I’ve heard announcers say they don’t like the opener or bullpening games cause that means more opportunities for pitchers to not “have it”
Ben Clemens
11:32
Yeah so I really honestly don't know if this is a thing.
And I want to know.
Like, would you do better to play nine guys with .300 wOBA allowed projections
11:33
or one guy for 6 who allows a .300 wOBA and then three guys for three with the same
That's the ballgame folks.
As it turns out, the even run lead didn't matter in the end, but Anibal Sanchez's mastery did.
HappyfunBall
11:33
The idea that using too many releivers will result in one of them being a dud is just the gambler's fallacy
Ben Clemens
11:34
So it could be!
But it could also be real!
Mo money, Molina
11:34
Thanks for chatting, Bens
Ben Clemens
11:34
Great talking with you guys.
Ben Kaspick
11:34
That was fun. Thank you all for chatting with us.
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