JotCast | Cardinals vs. Nationals NLCS Game 1 Chat

Cardinals vs. Nationals NLCS Game 1 Chat

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Ben Clemens

9:29

But if you're going to have him fourth (which I am also fine with, fourth is about as important as second), I don't hate Eaton second.

Dystopian Future

9:30

Eaton/Rendon/Turner/Soto would be the way I'd order those four. Or put Kendrick third and Turner fifth, wouldn't hate that either.

Ben Clemens

9:30

Yeah if you're willing to bat Rendon second and Soto fourth, sure.

Alex

9:30

Why is third not as important as fourth (or fifth as I’ve also heard?)

Ben Clemens

9:30

Okay so this is neat, I'll try to cover it quickly.

Think of it this way -- the worst spot to come up in, leverage wise, is with two outs and no one on.

9:31

That happens a lot when you bat third.

Whereas second, you either have a runner on (good), or the chance for extra bases and to be in scoring position with only one out (good)

Fourth, if you bat in the first inning there's a runner on for a prospective dinger.

And if you don't, you get to come up with no one out.

But uh, it's not all that important. Lineup changes matter in the single digit runs over an entire season.

Sam

9:32

You pull mikolas here?

Ben Clemens

9:32

I would!

Mike Shildt just let Adam Wainwright throw 7,003 pitches.

So he probably won't.

Ben Kaspick

9:33

I would too. But I don't hate leaving in Mikolas. He's pitched pretty well tonight.

Matt

9:33

Is Soto grabbing his crotch in Mikolas' general direction, or is that just a tic after taking a pitch? He did it after the first two...not the third.

Ben Clemens

9:33

It's a tic. But he's very demonstrative.

9:34

The best one of these, by far, is when he realized Josh Hader couldn't locate his slider and laughed:
https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/dce2rf/juan_sotos_reaction_...

9:35

That little happy shoulder shrug kills me.

kevinthecomic

9:35

Hasn't been a ton of hard contact against MM, other than the 2 doubles earlier in the game, the last few hits have been seeing eye singles

Ben Clemens

9:35

Yeah, it's not that he hasn't pitched well.

It's just that you want your best possible matchup against Soto there, that at-bat can end the game.

And a lefty is the matchup you want against Soto

9:36

Per Leverage Index, that was the most important plate appearance of the night by a fair margin.

cat's paw

9:36

Even with as much as people talk about how well he hits lefties?

Ben Clemens

9:37

Uh, yes. The idea of knowing people's platoon splits after 346 PA against lefties (for Soto) is wild.

Not only that, but he has a 120 wRC+ against lefties and 153 against righties

That's actually a big split. He hits lefties well because he is maybe the best pure hitter in baseball.

Byron Buxton

9:38

But he does "hit lefties well"

Ben Clemens

9:38

Haha well sure. Barry Bonds hit lefties well too.

Doesn't mean you shouldn't use a lefty against him.

Dystopian Future

9:39

What does "pure hitter" even mean, and why is the best pure hitter not Mike Trout? Is Mike Trout not the best pure hitter in baseball just because he's great at everything else?

Ben Clemens

9:39

Ah no, what I mean is, Soto might be the best hitter

He's not the best position player

Because he is not a great defender

But contributions at the plate only, it's arguable that he is the best.

For example, in our depth charts projections and such

9:40

Trout is *probably* better, but eh, look, I just love Soto.

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