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Chad Young's Baseball Chat
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Chad Young
2:59
Hi all - going to get this started in just a moment. This chat, for those who missed my update last week, is part of our expanded Ottoneu coverage. I don't know yet how regular they will be, but there has been demand for chats, so we'll keep doing them semi-regularly.
3:00
Happy to answer any Ottoneu questions, but I also cover keeper leagues in general on the Keep or Kut podcast, so I am open to any questions. Just know that whatever you are doing in your other keeper leagues, Ottoneu is better!
3:01
For any questions, when possible let me know the basics of league format. For Ottoneu, that just means scoring type, but any info you give me can help me give you a better answer.
Also, I am new to this chat thing, so if I mess things up...uh...sorry. I'll do my best. Let's go!
Jeff
3:02
Which do you like less: $10 Nimmo, $8 Renfroe, $9 Happ, $3 Kwan?
Chad Young
3:03
I have Nimmo a good deal above the rest of those guys and given the price, I like Kwan a good deal more than the other two. Renfroe vs. Happ is pretty close to a tossup for me, so I'll take the extra dollar saved and say Happ is my least favorite. But I like them all and wouldn't be looking to cut any of them.
Large Farva
3:03
Currently have Betts, Hoerner (when he gets 2b eligiblity) for 2b. Do I keep or cut $9 Lux? Same with $3 Aranda? Hate 2b depth options in the draft
Chad Young
3:05
I could go either way on that Lux. I like Aranda and would prefer to keep him at $3. The challenge here, if you are worried about depth, is that Aranda is far less certain to play and perform. If you are really worried and expect no options at 2B in the auction, I could keep them both. Otherwise, I would keep Aranda and try to find a boring but safe and cheap option at auction (Wong, Rojas, Segura, etc.)
Rayan
3:05
Which pitchers do you look at and think, "Man, if that guy gets to 160 innings he's going to get some Cy Young votes" ?
Chad Young
3:08
This is a fun one. Leaving aside the obvious CY candidates, some guys I think could surprise - Tyler Glasnow is super talented if he can stay on the hill. Blake Snell won't get to 160 innings unless he can be more efficient but if he brings down the walks, he could be elite. People keep treating Kershaw in trade talks like he is washed, but he was 6th in MLB in FIP among SP with 80+ IP in 2022.
Bertier's Mama
3:08
How many quality replacement options need to be available before you feel confident dropping someone?
Chad Young
3:09
In general, I don't look too much at the market to make my decisions. If a guy is a keep, he is a keep and if he is not, those resources are better spent elsewhere. That said, if there is literally nothing, I might reach a bit.
3:10
As an example, I just traded for an $18 Ty France in a league with basically no 3B FA. From what I can tell, the options will be Anthony Rendon, Josh Rojas, Justin Turner, and Josh Donaldson. And I could be wrong about Rendon getting cut. France was borderline for me but the trade made sense and the situation is dire. But...I had that Justin Turner at $17 and had decided to cut him regardless of this trade.
Rico
3:11
What am I missing on Isaac Paredes? Lack of consistent AB's, bad batted ball profiles, some pop and good BB rate. Seems a tier or two too high.
Chad Young
3:13
I think Paredes does need to come down a tier, given playing time concerns, but "some pop and  good BB rate" goes a long way. That's a profile I love and you can see it in the projections, too. Using Depth Charts projections, I get a $14 value for him (that's just pure projection value, none of my input). That's partially because Steamer is particularly high on him, but there is real reason to believe, particularly in this format.
Mike M
3:13
Is it worth speculating on SB upside with the new rules in place this year? Understanding that guys still need to hit, but it would seem like the Jon Bertis of the world could be more valuable if they were already hitting enough for 4 p/g (Fangraphs points)
Chad Young
3:16
Berti put up 4.18 P/G last year stealing 41 bases and being caught 5 times. I don't know how much upside there is on that. If he steals 10 more and still gets caught just 5 times, that adds 19 points to his season and raises him to something like 4.35 P/G. Which is still bad. My guess is that even for the best base stealers, the new rules don't add much more than 0.2 P/G. That is a sizable increase, but it's not enough to make many of the 5x5 SB darlings valuable in FGPTs.
3:17
On the new rules, in general - I am assuming little to no change in player values for FGPTs. The lack of clarity on how the new rules will play out, plus the relative lack of value of SB makes it hard for me to assume much overall impact on values.
Large Farva
3:17
$13 Strider
$10 McClanahan
$17 Rodon
$15 Framber
$14 Webb
$8 Glasnow
$6 Ashby
$6 Wesneski
$11 Cobb
How many more SPs do I need to cover all the injury risk?
Chad Young
3:19
I tend to like to have nine SP, adding a 10th if I am worried about risk. I also go into auctions with a couple "unclaimed" spots and might opportunistically grab an extra SP if it makes sense. For you I would for sure get to 10. Ashby and Wesneski are not locks for the rotation (in fact, I would bet neither are there to start the year), plus you have some injury risk. But that is a fun rotation.
Liam
3:19
Is there any reason I should keep a $29 hoskins? I've got an $8 Lowe but for some reason I can't pull the trigger to cut
Chad Young
3:20
I like Hoskins a lot but $29 is really pushing the upper limits on what he is worth. You could use him and Lowe at 1B and util, so you have room for both, but I would be inclined to cut, see what he's going for at auction and either get him back in the low-to-mid 20s or pivot to someone else.
JB
3:20
If I have 8$ Alejandro Kirk and 14$ Willson Contreras is it worth it to hold both, even as a potential trade chip/insurance or is the money better used elsewhere?
Chad Young
3:21
I would keep both. You will need two C to fill out 162 games anyway, and both of those guys are good values. You can then use them both heavily early in the year and then trade one or, if needed slot one in at util at times.
Cedric_Walter
3:21
Is Chris Sale worth the risk @ $23? Don’t have an ace in my rotation and the FA pool looks light.
Chad Young
3:23
I wish people asked easier questions like, "would you keep this $73 Sale?" or "should I cut a $3 Sale?" $23? Man, that is tough. I think if you are worried about SP, I would keep him. The upside is high and if he does get hurt again, you can cut him and use the newfound cap room to pick up whatever young SP has come out of nowhere to surprise us.
$70Trout
3:23
new to Ottoneu this season and loving it already - took over an abandoned last place team, have devoured as much content to learn, went through arbitration with my team, did my cuts, made some wild trades... now heading into my first draft and full season, what's one thing you'd want to make sure a Roto player understands about Ottoneu as a newcomer?
Chad Young
3:24
Welcome! Always excited to hear that we have new people joining!
3:25
There are a lot of thing they should understand, but reading the content and checking out the FAQ and the league settings page are all good starts. As for one thing...remember that balance matters a lot less. In roto, if you hit 100 more HR than the second place team in HR, and as a result have very few R or SB and a low average, all those HR won't help. In a points league, every HR counts the same, whether you have 100 more than the next team or 1 more. In the auction, go get production and value regardless of what shape it comes in.
Liam
3:26
also- so glad to see expanded ottoneu coverage. love keep or kut and excited to get some more articles
Chad Young
3:26
Thanks, Liam. Just throwing this in here to give myself a chance to catch my breath and bask in the glow of your kind words
Adam K
3:26
How do you generally engage with league-mates who aren't very active?
Chad Young
3:28
I try to engage with them on their own terms, if that makes sense. If they aren't engaged because they have limited time, I try to just send them offers that are fair from the start or even maybe a little in their favor but still work for me. They won't go back and forth in negotiations so make it easy. I also try to engage with them when they are around. They are making cuts? Or updated their trade block? Act fast to engage while they are paying attention.
double strategy ??
3:28
In general:  FGPTs.  Do you prefer Aces and spaces, or a roster of $20 players plays better in OttoNeu.  Do you prefer keeping close calls, or throwing back all but clear excess values?  Any notable differences if H2H or YTD?  Thank you
Chad Young
3:29
I tend to prefer to play in the middle, but I want some stud bats. I care less about having a legit top tier ace - I prefer all my SP to be at a meaningful discount because of the risk, even if that means I am never getting the Cole's or Scherzer's of the world.
3:31
H2H vs. Season-long, in Ottoneu the big thing is that for pitchers the value shifts from P/IP to P/appearance, more or less, in H2H. H2H leagues you have limited starts per week but if your SP all go 9 innings, you can use all those innings and pile up points. SP who go deep and RP who throw a lot of innings are more valuable. For RP that doesn't have to be 2-3 inning outings, though. Just high volume overall. Going three times in a week for one inning each is better than going once a week for three innings because you have more chances for saves/holds.
p
3:31
4x4 league. Not competing next year. Keep or cut: $11 Kelenic, $9 Kiriloff
Chad Young
3:32
Cut'em both. I like them both, but way too much risk for me at those prices.
Bertier
3:32
How many OF options do you like to carry? And can you do an updated roster construction series?
Chad Young
3:33
Roster construction would be a great topic for Lucas, Jake and me to cover. We'll put it on our list. As for OF, I like to have at least 7. That's enough if they are all everyday players, especially if you have a 2B/OF or 3B/OF at another spot who can moonlight for you. Most of the time, though, I have some platoon guys or guys I expect to miss time, and carry around 9.
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