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Chad Young's Baseball Chat
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Matt
3:34
Can you provide some more context to your comment on Sal Frelick ("A prospect with this little power is going to need to be ready to debut before I consider rostering them. And even then, probably not.")? In 2022, his AA PPG was 6.8, and 7.8 in AAA (~50G for each). Granted small sample and MiLB -> MLB translations, would you really expect it to drop *that* much? Seems like he is a great candidate to forge a slightly different path to points, a la Yandy Diaz
Chad Young
3:38
I am just generally skeptical of guys who I don't think have enough power. If MLB pitchers can get him to swing and miss more (likely) and challenge him more since he can't really punish them (likely) his path to success narrows dramatically. Some guys do it - Yandy you mentioned. Steven Kwan. But there's also guys like Nick Madrigal, JP Crawford, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Amed Rosario, etc. who just never do enough. I'd rather miss out on him becoming a solid $10 OF and spend that roster spot and those dollars on someone who will contribute now or who has much higher upside for the format.
JR
3:38
Would you prefer $6 Kyle Wright or $8 Drew Rasmussen? H2H Fangraphs points.
Chad Young
3:39
Wright. Especially in H2H where (per my reply above to "double strategy") those extra IP per GS are really useful.
Bill
3:39
No question just thanks for doing this chat and increasing the Ottoneu content.  Really looking forward to the season.  Cheers
Chad Young
3:39
Thanks Bill!
Framberman
3:40
How many Ottoneu leagues are you in this year?
Chad Young
3:42
7 - three 4x4 (league 1, league 1199, and league 1372), one season long FGPTs (32), one season long SABR Pts (670), one H2H FGPTs (13), and one 5x5 (1443). The 5x5 is my newest - it's a Podcasters League put together by Derek Van Riper of The Athletic. I am in that, as are Paul and Justin representing Sleeper and the Bust, plus a handful of other great podcasters. Should be really fun.
Adam K
3:42
How do you approach keep / cut decisions in a 2nd year league given the lack of expected inflation or even potential deflation?
Chad Young
3:43
Not that differently from leagues that have been around longer, I just assume a lower inflation rate when making cuts. Honestly, you are probably best off assuming 0% and rolling with that.
Adam K
3:43
Hold 2 versions of $5 Roansy across FGPts leagues where I have plenty of pitching - would you keep or cut?
Chad Young
3:43
If you have plenty of pitching, I would keep. There is a lot of volatility there and a wide range of outcomes, but there are worse players to gamble on.
kcc26
3:43
stuck on an $8 Drury.  I don’t think he’s an $8 player, but I’m light on MI options heading into auction and like the 1b/2b/3b coverage he provides.  what do you think?
Chad Young
3:44
I am generally not a Drury believer. Have him in my $3-$6 tier at 2B but right near the bottom of the tier. I would cut him. He provides coverage but very likely only as a platoon bat, which makes him harder to use as a bench option.
Not Jake Cronenworth
3:44
You wrote about a CY tier for RP, is there a discount that makes sense for 1B in 4x4 leagues as well?
Chad Young
3:45
I am always looking for values, but RP is really the only spot where I just never pay market price no matter what. In 4x5, I will gladly pay full price for a 1B if that is what my team needs.
Not Jake Cronenworth
3:45
Do you participate in leagues with arbitration vote off, rather than allocation?  Do you approach cuts differently in those leagues?
Chad Young
3:46
I don't anymore, but I have. Little history lesson: vote-off used to be the ONLY option; allocations came later. But no, I don't approach cuts differently. I still want to keep my best values and cut the rest.
prospect gold
3:46
Curious how many roster spots you devote to prospects--hitting and pitching. thx!
Chad Young
3:49
This varies, but it ranges from 0 to maybe 5. If I am entering the Ottoneu Prestige League, I won't roster any unless I think they are up very early. If I am contending, I might roster 1-3 that I think can help or can be traded. If I am not contending, I might go up to 5. But I don't usually devote rosters spots specifically to prospects. I like to enter the auction with 2-4 spots that I don't need something specific (for example, having 10 free spots and knowing I need 2 OF, 3 SP, 1 MI, a CI, but have three spots free) and those might turn into prospects or other guys who come in cheaper than expected.
Sam
3:49
Keep Goldy for $35 or Will Smith for $25?
Chad Young
3:50
Yes and probably. I think I am overpaying the top of the C market right now and need to come down in my prices, but even if I do, after inflation, I like that Smith.
JR
3:50
Is $38 Bregman a keeper? The league is a 9-year H2H Fangraphs points league, so there is some inflation. I would feel a lot better about keeping him around $30.
Chad Young
3:50
I think he is but not obviously so, if that makes sense. I wouldn't blame you for cutting him but based on what I am seeing at 3B, I would be happy to have him.
Oddball Herrera
3:50
I am flush with keepers. Who am I going to feel dumber about cutting loose - Elly or Volpe?
Chad Young
3:51
Elly. I like Volpe, too, but Elly appears to be special and won't have to fight for time in an org that will move on quickly if he isn't producing.
Nate
3:51
I saw a reference to some mock drafts that are being done.  Can you send that link?
Chad Young
3:52
here is a google sheet with the results from those mocks plus a link to each mock. Big thanks to SABRMagician, a long-time Ottoneu manager who has taken on running these mocks.
Chip
3:52
Do you pay more than $20 for relievers? I feel like you can collect lots of holds guys with good ratios (some of whom end up closers eventually) and use the money more wisely
Chad Young
3:53
Agreed. I do not pay more than $20 for RP. I almost never pay more than $10 and pretty rarely go over $5. My bullpens are never THAT good but they are usually good enough.
Moerder
3:53
How concerned are you with positional/roster fit at this time of year? I find myself stressing about holes in the roster (e.g. no SS's, too hitter/pitcher heavy, no bench, etc), but then remember there's an often fertile trading period between the auction draft and Opening Day to iron that stuff out. Do you ever go agnostic with positions, grab any value wherever you can, and then fix it post auction?
Chad Young
3:53
I prefer to behave that way and it is my default. Especially pre-auction, I just want to set myself up well and I am content to go into the auction with gaps if need be.
p
3:54
Looking to join a new FGPTs league this year. Any hot tips? (Undervalued players, mix of Hitting to Pitching, mind games?!)
Chad Young
3:55
Mind games are key. Make sure to tell all your leaguemates that you are aiming to win SB but are punting saves. Convince them you don't understand the format at all. They'll never see you coming.
3:56
One real tip: Don't worry about hitting vs. pitching mix. Worry about maximizing your lineup vs. your bench (having 15 great hitters doesn't help since you can only play 12 each day), but if you have an elite offense and middling pitching, that can still be enough.
Framberman
3:56
Loved your entire Ottoneu position ranking series but this RP ranking is truly unique. I find various RP ranking calculator swing and miss on accurately projecting $ amounts on relievers. Your Chad tier addresses this by bumping the calculated tier a few $'s. At what point during an auction would you bail altogether on RP's and rely on the FA market? Once all $1 and higher RP's are gone? Before that? After that?
Chad Young
3:56
I generally bail on RP at the start lol.
3:57
I often nominate RP early just to see if someone sneaks through, but I am generally just waiting for either a $10 guy to go for $5 or for everyone to let me have a guy I like for $1.
Jeff
3:57
Scale of 1-10, how badly do I need to address RP if I’m keeping Graterol, Clase, J Adam, Hudson
Chad Young
3:58
If those guys are all good values and you are keeping them all, you don't need to do much more IMO. Get some cheap depth with upside.
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