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Chad Young's Baseball Chat
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Secret Agent
4:18
Do you find inflation is even spread out, or does it impact pricey bats more? Seems to be my experience.
Chad Young
4:19
Lots of varying opinions on this and it's really hard to measure because how you measure inflation depends on what you set your values to from the start. If your values are too steep (too high at the top and dropping too fast) inflation will look lower at the top, even if it is not.
My sense is that there is more scarcity at the top (there are a dozen $5 OF but only one Judge) so inflation tends to feel higher at the top because people will bid up those studs.
Chucky
4:20
Keep forever, no contracts 6x6 OBP Gunnar and Carrol or JTR and Swanson?
Chad Young
4:20
Gunnar and Carroll. I don't want to keep an old C forever.
Chip
4:20
You going to bid on Yoshida? Feels like the kind of guy who will get bid up ridiculously.
Chad Young
4:21
I was out on Seiya last year for that reason and I suspect I will be out on Yoshida. I'll let others take the risk. I have seen multiple Suzuki's cut today in my leagues and I suspect I am not alone.
Chip
4:21
Related to your SP preference, would you say you feel comfortable going into a season with a bunch of surplus '#2s' as opposed to worrying about clear aces? I find myself after an offseason of haggling and restructuring with all the pieces short of an ace (rotation Ray/Gray/Lynn/Ashby/?????). I've got cap space but no aces are in the FA pool. Should I stop fretting?
Chad Young
4:21
I would absolutely be fine with a rotation of 2s. I also tend to find that if you buy in early on the 2/3 type SP you have a good chance to get a cheap ace the next year.
Vibbot
4:22
Given the release of your RP rankings earlier today, and how much lower your tiers are than the "market", are you ever keeping RPs in non-5x5 leagues? Or are you satisfied with building a bullpen at draft and in-season free agency/waivers?
Chad Young
4:22
Almost never. I just traded away a $3 Jhoan Duran in a 4x4 league and I would have kept him, because he was just priced too well to cut. But I am only keeping RP who are extremely inexpensive.
Flexibility
4:23
Are you aware of any research on how much mult-position guys add to their value?  For example, let's take arraez with 1B/2B eligibility.  Clearly his value is premised on his 2 eligibility.  What do you think his 1 eligibility adds? I've read in general that it's a $1 or $2, but I'm wondering if this is just common wisdom, or if anyone has researched the issue?
Chad Young
4:24
I haven't seen any research but my argument has always been that it's about $1 because it frees up one roster spot. If I thought I needed a back-up 1B and now I don't, I can use that spot for something else. In season, I can "buy" a roster spot for $1 by cutting a $1 guy and eating the cap penalty. So that is how I look at it.
The Final Boss
4:24
I will have ~6 open slots to fill in my draft. Should I nominate all the big name players I don't want early and let people exhaust their funds, or should I try and squeak a few value guys through early while people may be more patient?
Chad Young
4:25
The eternal debate in auctions lol. I would mostly nominate big names. The one exception might be if you have a group of guys in the $5 range at a position and you are happy with any of them, I might nominate one early and see what happens. Sometimes those guys slip through at $1. Sometimes they go for $10. you should be fine either way, just don't get crazy bidding over your values
JR
4:25
How much balance do you try to have on your roster between established players (that may not have too much surplus) and breakout candidates (with a much greater varience in the possible outcomes)? Just looking at surplus based on projections, does not take into account the risk associated with some players.
Chad Young
4:26
I try to build around established guys I can rely on and then surround them with upside. I like to know that most of my lineup can be trusted OR that I have high floor backups for the guys I can't quite trust yet.
Framberman
4:26
What are the odds that Tatis slips into the MI for 5 game starts?
Chad Young
4:27
Your guess is as good as mine. I am assuming he is an OF only and treating him as such, and if he turns back into a SS, fine.
emptyflight
4:27
What is your general advice for a FGP startup? I have two this year and am curious how much emphasis I should put on long term value versus building to compete in 2023.
Chad Young
4:27
I always build to compete, but I suspect if you took a deliberate approach to punt year one you could do quite well with it. I might have to try that out sometime. But for me, I am always focused on winning this year.
Henry
4:28
Top 100 prospect lists are coming out just in time for the Ottoneu cut deadline. Outside of the prospects expected to get real playing time in 2023, are there any deeper prospects that you see reason to hold onto?
Chad Young
4:29
Not really, because I don't want to pay a prospect for multiple years and use up a roster spot for multiple years. I am focused on guys that can have an impact now or have high trade value now.
JR
4:29
I have $5 Murphy, $3 O'Hoppe, and $6 Ruiz. I'm leaning towards keeping Murphy and O'Hoppe, and possibly trying to pick up d'Arneud for a few dollars at auction. Reasonable strategy, or wasting the roster spot on too many catchers. H2H Fangraphs points.
Chad Young
4:30
I agree with cutting Ruiz. and I would not carry a third C in H2H. O'hoppe may not be up to start the year, but I still think I would just count on Murphy
Chief
4:30
How do you identify when it's time to go from rebuild to contender when your assessing your teams?
Chad Young
4:30
I am always assuming I can contend until it is proven I can't. So for me, a rebuild starts in May or June when I realize I am done and I flip the switch in October moving into the next season.
TBD benches
4:31
In a year where you’re going for the FG Points league title (and OPL), how deep of a bench do you try to have, in terms of quality guys you feel good subbing in vs $1-$2 fliers? Asking for a team where I have no bench OF bats and am weighing keeping a $3 Grichuk or $4 Seth brown
Chad Young
4:32
I am finding for OPL I would rather have more studs even if that means more $1-$2 guys. That said, Brown is also 1B/OF which is a nice little OPL boost.
Chip
4:32
Would you ever hold a maybe stud (Roderick Arias, for example) who is clearly 3+ years away?
Chad Young
4:32
No
double strategy ??
4:32
In your OttoNeu leagues, Do you identify yourself as a industry writer?  I love the competition.  I also feel...IDK, ghosted (?)...if not known.  I do not think you "owe it."
Chad Young
4:33
I think my leaguemates all know I write/podcast. I have never hidden it and I write and play under my name so it should be pretty obvious, I think.
Chip
4:33
Have you ever gone into a year with only a few spots open and a like $20 available? I find myself with a team I kinda like and didn't find many cuts.
Chad Young
4:33
I have and it's a fine thing to do, but make sure oyu really believe in that team cause it isn't improving at the auction.
Chief
4:33
Have you ever gone to auction with only $1 per position available?
Chad Young
4:34
This, on the other hand, seems crazy. I would be so bored!
I think I would find a way to create cap space even if it was suboptimal just to be able to engage in the auction.
no shift
4:34
in points leagues curious how you are handling ground ball heavy types. I would like SP with splits (St louis at home) and it was fewer innings and not elite swing and miss--is it time to pay up for Ks?
Chad Young
4:35
I love GB pitchers in FGPT and SABR Pts. High K, high GB is the dream in a format that rewards K and punishes HR. But for me the key is to get at least one. I'll take high GB with meh K, as long as the K aren't too low (8 K/9 is fine, 7 might work, 6 isn't great)
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