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Chat with David Smith During the 2020 Busch Clash
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AvatarDavid Smith
3:16
"America is all about speed. Hot, nasty, badass speed." -- Eleanor Roosevelt

Let's have ourselves a chat, folks!
Keith
3:16
Stenhouse on the pole. Do you think this will change the thoughts of the field on where they race, out front or behind the pack?
AvatarDavid Smith
3:18
There is clearly some irony behind the idea of Stenhouse occupying the lead before Sunday's green flag ever drops, but I doubt it's something that will radically alter the plan of any team. Most plans are created on the fly anyway, and there's no guarantee Stenhouse keeps the lead for the entire first lap.
Alan
3:18
I dont have a question. Im just here to plug "Positive Regression" and fun racing :)
AvatarDavid Smith
3:18
#StayPositive, buddy!
Avery
3:19
The front of the field has become considerably more hectic recently, so I’d think hanging in the back may not be a bad option.
AvatarDavid Smith
3:20
Ryan Newman likes your idea, Avery, and it wouldn't shock me to see an impressive list of drivers riding around for 475 miles. The teams valuing stage points most should be the ones controlling the lead pack.
Guest
3:21
is there any trend when That shows when a driver works with such and such Crew Chief there PEER improved?
AvatarDavid Smith
3:22
None of which I am aware, but PEER is built to include quantifiable team input, so it's not like a good crew chief could increase a rating that much more over a bad crew chief.
Mick
3:23
Is Alan Gustafson The best Crew Chief without a champio ship?
AvatarDavid Smith
3:25
Would you rather have Gustafson over, say, Chris Gabehart or Chad Johnston? Gustafson's had a long, productive career. A quality crew chief, to be sure. It is striking, though, that he doesn't yet have a championship, but that may no longer be a relevant measure considering the volatile nature of how champions are now crowned.
Derek
3:25
Could Suarez miss the 500?
AvatarDavid Smith
3:28
It's entirely possible. GBR does not have fast cars, and I believe they have three total in the fleet until they're allowed some hand-me-downs from JGR. But Toyota will make a concerted effort to get him in the show, pending it keeps other Toyota cars clean for Sunday.
Guest
3:28
Hey David, can you give me a basic rundown of how you calculate PEER for an older season, say like 1998? I know you probably can’t say much but any info would be awesome.
AvatarDavid Smith
3:32
Sure. It's an archaeological effort. I have folks helping me in digging back to secure timing and scoring data for complete seasons, but I feel there's a ceiling on how far back I can go. I can produce a PEER with rudimentary transponder data, but that just does not exist for something like Junior Johnson's era. I've estimated those PEERs in the past, but I don't personally feel great about them without knowing for sure.
3:34
Good news, though, I've secured as far back as 1996, so we're in good shape. I'm optimistic about the whole of the 1990s.
Keith
3:34
Who is your pick for a breakout season?
AvatarDavid Smith
3:36
You probably don't need an analytics guy to answer this one: Matt DiBenedetto, by virtue of his new ride, will improve. William Byron can maintain his top-end races from last year while eradicating the bad ones and his numbers "improve." Chris Buescher is borderline, because I don't see him coaxing the kind of speed Ricky Stenhouse did out of the Roush Fenway cars, but I like everything else he does.
Avery
3:36
Are you constantly improving and tweaking the exact formula for PEER or has it been the same since its inception?
AvatarDavid Smith
3:38
Good question. I actually tweaked the formula for ARCA, East and West because the fluctuating car counts was artificially inflating production. That's settled now. As for Cup Series PEER, the formula can stay intact and as technology improves, the equipment handicap will become even closer to accurate than it already is.
Lamar
3:39
Thoughts on Deegan?
AvatarDavid Smith
3:41
Oh, so many. Firstly, I believe she could've won last night had she had prior drafting experience. I'm willing to bet Michael Self would've tried a glacial block if she feinted high, then dipped low. If she did something like this on corner entry of turn 3, she could've hung him out to dry. But that's a move that takes experience and she's simply not there yet.
3:43
Secondly, I like what Ford is doing with its driver development program. I realize this is a novel concept, but it seems they're actually developing drivers. Chase Briscoe's cross-training, which has turned him into a legitimately good road course racer, is remarkable. She had a lot of non-education while driving out west. Now, I'm a little more bullish on her future, but still completely unsure of her ceiling.
Derek
3:44
Big PosReg fan here! Do you have any plans for more driver and crew chief interviews?
AvatarDavid Smith
3:47
Sure, but we'll maintain the format we have for the most part. If Alan and I did the driver/CC interviews like we did with Hamlin/Gabehart every week, we wouldn't be able to maintain the frequency of recording (because time and money). The beauty of podcasting is that we can sort of pop the trunk and produce something cool without much planning or cost. So yes, I'm sure we'll do it again, but when we do, it'll be special and for a specific purpose.
3:48
10-minute warning, by the way. I'll have to resume other work duties for the end of this race. Get your questions in now!
Justin
3:49
For the current 2020 cup rookies, who do you think has the best "potential" or "ceiling"?
AvatarDavid Smith
3:51
Oh man, what a question. It's close, but I'll say Cole Custer. I believe in the work Chris Mitchell does for Motorsports Analytics and the fact that he started so young counts for something. But Bell and Reddick have visible and quantifiable talent. They'll have fantastic careers, either in success or duration.
Doug
3:51
Do you think that Ryan Blaney wins all 36 races, or do you think he has some bad luck and only wins 33 or 34?
AvatarDavid Smith
3:53
Thank you for the laugh, Doug. I actually like the crew chief swap for Blaney because I think Todd Gordon is the right crew chief for right now. Blaney needs track position and clean air -- doesn't everybody? -- but Gordon is good at getting this. A three- or four-win season for Blaney is believable and his PEER projection supports this.
KL fan
3:53
Make a prediction. Who will Kyle Larson drive for in 2021?
AvatarDavid Smith
3:55
If Stewart-Haas Racing offers him all the money, there's your answer. He wants to win a lot and get paid a lot doing it, and SHR is best positioned to offer both.
Mick
3:55
What can we expect from David Gravel in his few truck starts he will get?
AvatarDavid Smith
3:56
It's too soon to know for sure, but I've enjoyed following him this weekend. It's as if Dave Blaney got a 10-year head start on his NASCAR career. I intend to write about his pursuit this year for The Athletic.
3:57
This was fun everyone! Thanks so much for hopping on. Enjoy the rest of Speedweeks!
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