JotCast | Chat With MLBTR's Steve Adams: 1/24/19

Chat With MLBTR's Steve Adams: 1/24/19

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Question

5:08

Hey are y’all gonna do the podcast again?

Steve Adams

5:10

Glad to hear you were a fan, but it's not in the cards at the moment. It was a fairly decent time commitment for Jeff and me, and the nature of one of us being on MLBTR basically all day from 7am-midnight during the week meant that we recorded around 1 in the morning... and then that one of us would be up again 4-5 hours later to take over the site.

Our following grew quick early on and then kind of plateaued. I think to an extent, Jeff and I would like to be able to do it again, but it's not a near-term thing for us, no. Apologies.

Gettin Jiggy with it

5:10

Is the Pomeranz signing bad news for Suarez or does Drew get plugged into the bullpen to replace Smith or Watson? In other words, does Pomeranz signal the Giants are closer to trading one of their lefties?

Steve Adams

5:11

Giants have already said he's in the rotation and is intended to serve as insurance for Shark. They don't really know what they can get out of Samardzija right now

Baseball Guy

5:12

Are the Orioles going to sign anybody? Will they finish in last place?

Steve Adams

5:13

I'm sure they'll pick up some of the scraps in free agency -- particularly starters and relievers once the asking prices drop down even further. Yes, they will finish in last place.

Manny Machado

5:13

Guesses on the “mystery teams”? I’ve got Padres and Blue Jays, but Twins and Pirates seem sensable as well.

Steve Adams

5:13

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/01/trying-to-identify-mystery-team...

Pirates aren't spending that type of money. No chance.

Chief Knockahoma

5:14

Thank you for clarifying who some of the commenters are talking about! Not everyone knows who the executives, owners, managers, etc. are for all 30 teams.

Steve Adams

5:14

No problem. That was one of the pieces of feedback in our recent survey, and it's easy to do a quick clarification of who each GM, manager, etc. is when people use them as their names in the chat

Nick Leyva

5:14

What is the argument to not trading Nolan Arenado this winter? (considering Rockies proven payroll tolerance, consistent needs w/altitude, etc.)

Steve Adams

5:16

The argument is that they think they have a genuine chance to make it to the postseason, where anything can happen, and nothing they get in exchange for Arenado is going to make them a better team in 2019. He's also the face of the franchise, so even if you wanted to dream up a crazy scenario where they traded him for immediate MLB help (significant help) and then pivoted to sign Machado, some fans would still be irate.

I do genuinely believe they want to sign him long-term, too, though that's going to cost them an enormous sum, and my expectation is Arenado hits the open market next winter.

Miss Havisham

5:17

A ton of FA have signed for right around where you guys predicted. Do you think Machado and Harper are really going to settle for like >$100mil less than your predictions?

Steve Adams

5:20

I think we're going to end up being quite high on both. We talked about this at length, recognizing that teams are increasingly gravitating toward shorter commitments and higher AAVs. At the same time, we were cognizant of the fact that both Boras (Harper) and Lozano (Machado) would be pitching directly to owners and that oftentimes, these deals go over the heads of the baseball operations department. (For instance, Arte Moreno signed Albert Pujols -- not Jerry Dipoto.)

As such, we chose to make predictions that reflected the extraordinary rarity of being able to sign a premium player like this at the age of 26. That, it seems, will not be the case. I do still think Harper will set a record and that Manny will get more than most are anticipating now, but they won't match our lofty figures.

5:22

Frankly, I think it's laughable that so many big market teams are choosing to pass and trying to stay south of the luxury tax rather than aggressively try to make their teams better. Manfred can harp on pace of play and a lack of action in games all he wants, but having an absolute snooze of an offseason because a third of the league isn't trying to win at all and half the big market teams are acting like the luxury tax line actually matters to them is damaging fan interest far more.

Heyyy perfect timing:

Chris Cotillo @ChrisCotillo
15s
Red Sox looking at deals in $2-3 million, from what I'm hearing... so Brach may have been a little rich for their blood at this point. Career at Fenway Park: 1.27 ERA, 0.991 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 in 35.1 innings.

5:23

That's an absolute joke for the Red Sox and a slap in the face to fans. You just won a World Series! This is the last year of Sale+Xander+JDM+Mookie all on the same team ... and you're going to go cheap in the 'pen because you don't want your pick in next year's draft to drop 10 spots? Give me a break.

Ray

5:24

Can the padres really surprise people and sign machado? He makes too much sense pairing him with tatis

Steve Adams

5:25

I don't consider the Padres an outlandish fit for Machado, no. They signed a demonstrably worse player a year ago (Hosmer), have the need, have a relatively open payroll slate long-term and gobs of pre-arbitration talent beginning to rise to the surface. Go for it.

Marlins Guy

5:25

What's up with the Marlins? Nothing's happening!

Steve Adams

5:26

They don't want to sign anyone until they trade JTR because they expect to get a big leaguer back in the deal and don't know what position he'll play yet.

They're not trying in '19 anyway, so I'm sure to them it doesn't matter all that much which specific warm-body stopgaps they add in February. And you know the supply will be there.

Steve Adams Apple

5:27

How can the Sox actually think Brasier/Barnes is a sufficient endgame punch... first guy has no experience and barnes is injured more than most it seems.

Steve Adams

5:29

World Series in 2018 or not, Red Sox fans should be genuinely annoyed if they don't do jack to address the bullpen. If you want to pull your punches once Sale and Xander hit free agency and JDM opts out, I guess that's one thing, but now is not the time for them to take the foot off the gas.

Four4fore

5:29

JTR for Zunino and who?

Steve Adams

5:31

I don't think Zunino would appeal much to the Marlins, since he only has two years left and is making some decent money. Marlins are going to want young, controllable MLB talent which means they'd be asking for a headliner like Brent Honeywell, I'd think -- plus maybe one of TB's Lowes (Nathaniel, Brandon) and other pieces.

Mark

5:31

Does a potential trade partner with the Tigers consider moving Castellanos back to third base?

Steve Adams

5:33

I suppose if you have a huge hole there and figure Castellanos is going to be a negative with the glove anyway, maybe someone would try it. That could put the Brewers in the mix, but there aren't too many teams with a clear 3B need who would be OK with a pure one-year pickup.

Scott

5:33

Do you think the Brewers' bullpen can repeat the success it had last year?

Steve Adams

5:34

I don't think it's realistic to expect them to be THAT good again, but it's a generally excellent group and they should be among the better relief corps in the league again.

A Fan

5:34

While Harper and Machado are young, they both come with pretty obvious warts. Harper can’t play defense and is incredibly inconsistent offensively. Machados numbers aren’t great away from OPACY and there are questions about his attitude, hustle, etc. I have to believe if Trout or Mookie or Lindor or some other elite talents were available, more teams would be willing to pay 10 years at a high AAV. Don’t you think part of the issue this offseason is these two particular players?

Steve Adams

5:38

The whole "Harper can't play defense" thing spawns from one year -- the year immediately following a gruesome-looking hyperextension in his knee. He graded out as an above-average right fielder prior to that and is only 26. I don't buy that he's suddenly an awful defensive outfielder, and clearly neither to the Nationals, Phillies, White Sox, etc.

I think this stems more from ownership mandates to stay south of the luxury line and the vast number of teams that just aren't trying. I don't think that any of the game's best players would be finding a market commensurate with expectations right now.

A year ago, everyone was saying the same thing... "Well no one wants to sign Darvish and Martinez since they're saving up for Harper and Machado." That has emphatically been proven false.

Nelder

5:39

RN. How does the AL West stack up in your mind?

Steve Adams

5:40

Astros, Angels, A's, Mariners, Rangers.

I love what the A's did in '18, but they have Fiers and that's about it as far as starters go right now, and I don't think they can replicate the voodoo that helped them win 97 games with E-Jax, Cahill and Anderson miraculously carrying the rotation, haha.

But, there's still some offseason left, so let's see how it pans out.

Paul

5:41

Was Pollock’s deal an overpay?

Steve Adams

5:41

Seems perfectly reasonable to me

WhyDidHeBiteMe

5:42

Will younger players start to be like Ohtani and try to be good hitter and pitcher?

Steve Adams

5:42

I think you'll see more people try but it's extraordinarily difficult to be good at both, and I don't expect many to succeed.