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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 1/26/22
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Steve Adams
12:41
I don't really get worked up over HOF voting, but Rolen should be in, so I hope he gets the call. He's trending in the right direction.

My sleep-deprived brain is drawing a blank on who I'd consider my top Comeback Player of the Year candidates -- it's also just not something I've thought much about -- so hey, throw some out there folks.
The Fonz
12:42
So let me see if I understand...how a bunch of sportswriters vote may play a role in player compensation?
Steve Adams
12:43
It already does, on a small scale, as there are contractual incentives tied to Awards voting. That said, it'd be magnified when you're talking about award bonuses to pre-arb players. I don't like the concept for a variety of reasons, but the obvious potential for conflicts of interest is pretty glaring. That's not a knock on any one BBWAA member or even the organization as a whole, to be clear, but it'd be naive to think there'd be absolutely no questions of ethics arising in that scenario.
Curious George
12:44
Comeback player - Justin Verlnder
Steve Adams
12:44
Yeah, JV is a good option in the AL. I thought of Luis Severino, too, if he's finally healthy.
Liz
12:44
Do you think the Mets are going to do much more?
Steve Adams
12:45
They'll add another arm to the rotation at the very least. As for how aggressive they'll be post-lockout, we can't be certain because no one has seen Steve Cohen in this type of "all-in" mode until this offseason.
Cars
12:45
Cubs fans mainly talk and write about Theo Epstein' success with the Cubs. What do you think were his mistakes?
Steve Adams
12:47
There were plenty. The Heyward deal has been a disaster. Frankly, quite a few of the team's free-agent signings under the Epstein/Hoyer regime were questionable.

The biggest failure, though, was the complete lack of homegrown pitching talent developed during Epstein's time at the top. The Cubs were able to overcome that because they struck gold on Hendricks and on their free-agent deal with Lester -- one of the best free-agent signings ever -- but that lack of development is the main reason they're in their current position.
Chris Young
12:47
I know we have already spent a lot but we still have plenty of room. I plan to pick up Suzuki, Kershaw, and trade for Olson after the lockout ends. What say you?
Steve Adams
12:50
Well, Jon Daniels is still calling the baseball operations shots in Texas, firstly. Chris Young is the GM, but he's No. 2 in the pecking order.

Secondly, I like Texas as a fit for Suzuki, sure, but I don't think they'll put together the best offer to pry Olson away. There'll be a "tax" of sorts for trying to get a legitimate star from a division rival, and other interested parties will have better farm systems and more urgent needs to acquire someone like Olson.

The Rangers know that no matter what they do, they're going to be long shots to contend in 2022. It's one thing to, say, sign Kershaw even though they know they probably won't compete in 2022. It's another thing to trade precious young talent to acquire Olson for a likely mediocre team record in 2022 and a hopeful run at the division in 2023. If Olson were controlled through 2025 or something, go for it, but he'll be a free agent post-2023.
12:51
Signing free agents only costs you money -- far easier to stomach that price than the prospect cost paid to acquire a veteran whose remaining control doesn't really align with your competitive window.
Chip
12:53
Is Oswaldo Cabrera sufficiently in the 'top tier' of Yankees prospects to headline an Olson deal?
Steve Adams
12:53
To headline? I don't think so, no.
Not Your Average Fan
12:53
Now that we have a break in the off-season, have you changed any of your predictions for contract amount, length, or what team will sign remaining free agents based on players just signed?   What’s you top 3 changes?
Steve Adams
12:57
Carlos Rodon's contract is the first that comes to mind. We discussed how he could try to max out on a multi-year deal right now, but that he/Boras would also know with a healthy season, he could go out and look for $100MM+ next winter. I expected that to be the route he'd take, but Boras has plainly said he wants a multi-year deal, so I'd change my one-year, $25MM prediction to something like three years and $50-60MM.

I pushed, but probably not hard enough, to get Andrew Chafin on the Top 50 list at MLBTR. Seeing what Aaron Loup got, I think Chafin has a pretty good chance at two, if not three years and a solid AAV.

I picked Correa to Philadelphia, and while their lack of urgency in the SS market makes me a little wary, the lack of an obvious fit and recent agent change does make me feel it's still possible. I don't know that I'd change it, but I liked the pick more on Nov. 1 than I do now.
12:58
That said, with Texas, Detroit and perhaps the Bronx all off the board, I don't totally hate it, ha.
J
1:00
You're a fan of Colorado not tanking. Arizona and Minnesota seem to be the same way. Which team makes the playoffs first?
Steve Adams
1:01
Twins are easily in the best spot of that trio. Better farm than Colorado, better current group of position player talent than both, much weaker division.

If the Twins had gone out and aggressively added some pitching, it seemed perfectly viable to me that they could contend again this season. That hasn't been the case -- at least not yet.
Belly Itcher
1:02
Kenta Maeda stated he is aiming for a September return.  Seems very unlikely Twins are in post season contention so why not just wait til 2023 to be totally healed?  He isn't in a Thor situation of proving something before becoming a FA
Steve Adams
1:03
Wouldn't you, as a professional competitor who takes pride in his work, want to get back to the mound ASAP (with doctors' approval) simply because you enjoy it? It'd also surely grant some peace of mind to head into the offseason saying, "Ok, I came back and threw 20 innings at 100% intensity, and my arm feels fine. I'm over this elbow thing" -- as opposed to sitting out the year and thinking "Oh man, I hope I this surgery actually took and I'm not going to blow out as soon as I take the mound in Spring Training"
ChanceBlock
1:04
Hi Steve, I'm a HUGE O's fan, Do you think Brandon Hyde is doing good as a manger? IF not, who do you think should coach the O's
Steve Adams
1:05
There's no sense judging Hyde (or any tanking team's manager) on wins and losses, since the record is going to be terrible no matter what. Hyde still has the trust of the front office, he's fine with the media, he hasn't lost the clubhouse, etc.

So much of a manager's true value is indistinguishable to those of us looking on from the outside. To this point, he seems like he's done everything asked of him after being brought into a pretty ugly situation. Hopefully he gets the chance to drive the boat once the O's actually start trying to win.
Inquiry Minds Want to Know
1:05
June 1st, who is starting DH and infield for the Minnesota Twins?
Steve Adams
1:06
I don't think the Twins are going to sign a dedicated DH. They'll use it to help keep Donaldson fresh, to get Sano off the field when they want to play Kirilloff at 1B, to get Garver and Jeffers both into the lineup against LHP, etc.
Guest
1:06
The Red Sox also bought Frank German in the Adam Ottavino trade
Steve Adams
1:06
Ah yeah, that was another "We bought a minor leaguer" type of deal in recent years. Good call.
Billy
1:06
Do you see Luis Patino having any value this year?
Steve Adams
1:10
Absolutely. Patino only just turned 22 three days ago, and he held his own through 77 innings as a perfectly useful, albeit somewhat unspectacular, arm for the Rays in a tough division last year.

I think fans are too quick to move onto the next name if a top prospect doesn't storm out of the gates like Juan Soto did. The reality is that there's a pretty steep learning curve, especially when you're talking about guys who are debuting around 21 years of age.

Patino averages 96 mph on his heater, and so far in his career, on plate appearances ending in his slider, opponents are hitting .186/.262/.361 with a 35.5% strikeout rate.
Steve who...
1:11
Why even bother with mlb ....players are soft and overpaid...who cares about the fans ...i can go to a local mens league softball game and get more entertainment...they at least play with heart even with injuries...mlb players just want their check?? Thoughts
Steve Adams
1:11
Have fun at the softball games? No one's forcing you to watch/follow MLB.
Jaime
1:11
Are you more of a pitching/defense strategy or outslugging the other team in terms of team building?
Steve Adams
1:13
Totally dependent on so many elements .... free-agent/trade market context, the composition of a team's farm system, their payroll capacity, park factors of their home stadium and the division in which they play, etc.

I think the most dangerous thing any team can do is decide there's one "right" way to build a roster and rigidly stick to that belief rather than be open-minded and creative.
Sam
1:15
Thoughts on what the tigers might do after the lockout, if anything?
Steve Adams
1:15
Bullpen help and maybe a fairly affordable back-of-the-rotation arm?
Ed
1:17
Finally some critism of Theo Epstein the Tank and Rebuild guy who gets way too much credit in Boston and Chicago.
Steve Adams
1:17
I didn't say he doesn't deserve credit. It's possible for him to both be a very gifted and creative baseball mind/executive who changed the course of history for two franchises ... and also to be a guy who's made a lot of mistakes. That's going to be the case with any exec who's been in the game this long.
1:18
You'll probably like this 2020 piece from Tim:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/02/theo-epstein-cubs-free-agents.h...
Dan P
1:18
If the Astros don't re-sign Correa - do they go hard for Story, go for a cheaper option like Andrelton Simmons or stay inside with Jeremy Pena (assume they are not moving Bregman to short),
Steve Adams
1:21
I don't think there's any chance Houston re-signs Correa unless he pivots and does something like five years and $225MM or something.

Beyond that, as you alluded to with Bregman, there are so many ways they can go at shortstop. I doubt even they know exactly which they're going to take right now. It's going to depend on how Story's market develops, but I'd be open to trying out Bregman at SS if they could get a meaningful bat at 3B (e.g. Bryant)
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