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Chat With MLBTR's Steve Adams: 1/9/18
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Steve Adams
3:07
Greetings! Let's continue to talk about all of the things that are (not) happening in this thoroughly riveting offseason.
I'm going to pour a cup of coffee and we'll get underway
Minsc
3:09
Which of the big 3 pitchers blinks first and realizes teams are too smart to give long deals to old players?
Steve Adams
3:11
I only see two big pitchers when I look at the market. Darvish in the lead by a healthy margin, followed by Arrieta, followed by a gap, then Cobb, then another gap, then Lynn.

I think Darvish will ultimately get a sixth year... Arrieta and the others I don't believe so. I'd guess Darvish first, since Boras will be comfortable waiting out Arrieta's market, and Cobb/Lynn will see their markets open once Yu signs.
Dave
3:11
What's holding up these free agents from signing?
Steve Adams
3:13
I'm of the belief that more data-driven teams simply place a dollar value on a player's worth, and if the agent is seeking more than that, they move on and try to find value elsewhere (while also staying in touch to see if that initial player's price drops). I don't think the old auction mentality that a lot of teams once had is as prevalent in 2017-18. And it seems, for now anyway, like more owners are trusting their new BB ops hires rather than signing deals over their heads.
Anthony
3:13
Is Cole truly "inevitable" for the Yankees?
Steve Adams
3:14
I don't think so. Some might've believed that at one point, but if something were going to happen there, I feel like one of the sides would've blinked by now. Might still happen down the line, but the Pirates are probably exploring other fits since the Yankees are loath to part with Gleyber.
Ted Nugent
3:14
Who closes in Detroit?
Steve Adams
3:15
Shane Greene, barring the signing of a veteran RP they can try to flip in July
MetsRealist
3:15
Astros need for TOR starter, Mets in need of a lot really, Degrom for Whittle, Tucker and Moran? Seems like great deal for both sides
Steve Adams
3:16
The Astros don't *need* a top-of-the-rotation starter. They'd like to add another one. I'd be shocked if they parted with Whitley and Tucker for three years of deGrom.
Charlie
3:16
Will the Cubs add another starter or will they go with the current rotation?
Steve Adams
3:16
They'll add one of the top four free agents, I think.
Darrick
3:16
Tzu-Wei Lin, Deven Marrero, Marco Hernandez -  who is playing 2B for Red Sox in April?  Or a FA like Nunez?
Steve Adams
3:17
I'd bet on someone not in the organization at present -- and someone who can bounce around the diamond more once Pedroia returns.
(Nunez would fit that description, though several other free agents/trade candidates could as well)
Cards Fan
3:17
Do the Cards pay up for Holland or try a more “value” play like Reed? Any thoughts on the smoke regarding a potential Donaldson deal following Solarte trade?
Steve Adams
3:19
At this point I don't know that their prices will be *all* that different. Holland's going to come up short of Davis' $52MM, I'd wager. I still like Reed in the 4/36 range, though maybe that ship has sailed now that so many teams have spent heavily on the 'pen. Regardless, I don't know that there's going to be a massive gulf between their total guarantees.

As for anyone trying to seriously tie the Solarte acquisition to a Donaldson trade -- that's a reach.
Matt
3:19
Mike moose to the Mets?
Steve Adams
3:20
The Mets reportedly have like $10MM to spend. Moose isn't happening at that price.
Trot07
3:20
Do you see any market for Hanley if the Sox eventually sign JDM?
Steve Adams
3:20
Nope. If the Sox eat $17MM of his salary or something, maybe they can dump him on another AL club I guess.
B. Morrow
3:20
Are the Cubs content with me as the closer, or will they acquire someone else (either pre-season or mid-year)?
Steve Adams
3:21
I think they're content with Morrow if they don't find another value to their liking but will continue to monitor the markets for Holland, Reed, Colome, Hand, etc.
Billy Hamilton
3:21
Am I going to be a Giant?
Steve Adams
3:21
I'm betting against it (at least this offseason -- who knows in a couple years when he's a free agent? Shrug)
Jeff Luhnow
3:22
Between Archer, Cole, and Duffy. Which one would cost the most, and which one has the bigger upside?
Steve Adams
3:22
Cost the most to acquire: Archer, Duffy, Cole
Upside: Archer, Cole, Duffy
Steve
3:22
Is mike Mussina a hof’er?
Steve Adams
3:22
He should be
Nick
3:23
Is there any truth to the 7 year deal rumors about Hosmer? If so, why hasn't he jumped on one?
Steve Adams
3:24
I believe Nightengale when he says he confirmed with both teams that they've made 7-year offers. None of the reports since that have come out to refute Bob have challenged the length of the offers -- they've said the dollar amounts are inaccurate.

Boras and Hosmer want 8+ years. They feel he should be compensated in accordance with other "star" FAs that hit the market before their age-28 seasons, as Hosmer has. You can debate whether Hoz is deserving of that "star" moniker (hence the quotes), but I'm sure that's their thinking.
Bob
3:25
Do you think this is the year that the 6 man rotation starts to take hold?
Steve Adams
3:26
Angels and Padres seem pretty likely to go that route. Yankees may do the same if they land the extra starter they've been pursuing. I think it'll become increasingly popular.

Generally speaking, the days of teams letting five guys pitch every fifth day and face the opposing lineup three-plus times is dwindling. There are going to be a lot more 5-6 inning starts and a lot fewer opportunities for pitchers to face lineups 3+ times -- especially mid- and back-of-the-rotation guys. Kershaw, Verlander, etc. will still get the leeway to pitch into the 7th, 8th, 9th
Tim Dierkes
3:27
You're fired.
Steve Adams
3:27
Welp. That was cold.
Chat's over everyone!
Ha
Pj
3:27
Does Lucroy sign with the Mets? If so, does that mean one of TDA or Plaw is traded and to who?
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