Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams 10/14/21
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Steve Adams
2:20
Greetings all! Apologies for the inconsistent chatting of late. We've been going through a hiring wave, prep for the annual Top 50 Free Agent List/Predictions, Offseason Outlook planning and all kinds of other things. It's definitely thrown a wrench into my usual scheduling, so let's get an impromptu chat in here!
Your Name
2:21
Due to "philosophical differences" I will be not attending today's chat
SHEEESH
2:21
Why on earth would the Cardinals fire their manager?
Steve Adams
2:22
I don't have any more insight on this than the rest of the baseball world/industry, which is basically in a collective state of shock. Mozeliak's comments at the press conference make this feel very sudden. Derrick Goold wrote in the STL Post Dispatch not even a week ago that the two sides would likely discuss an extension this offseason. I don't think anyone was expecting this, and I'm sure more details will emerge in the days ahead.
2:23
I was legitimately stunned by the news.
Nicholas
2:23
What are the chances Rodon takes the QO?
Steve Adams
2:24
I think given questions about his workload and his lack of innings late in the year, there's a decent chance he takes it. I've said in the past ... depends if he wants a shorter multi-year deal (two? three?) or if he's eyeing this 2021 breakout as a catalyst for a five-year deal (or more) down the line. If it's the former, he could reject and try to max out on a shorter multi-year deal now. If it's the latter, it makes more sense to accept, try to repeat in '22 and then go get the big check.
Guest
2:24
Do you think the cubs will sign Carlos Correa?  If so, for how much money?
Steve Adams
2:26
I don't view the Cubs/Correa as a likely match whatsoever. I know Correa spoke fondly when asked about the organization, but he was asked by a Cubs beat writer for his thoughts on the org. He's not going to trash them or anything. He's going to speak highly of every team he's asked about, because he knows it's in his best interest to have as many teams possible showing some level of interest.

There's no indication the Cubs are planning to spend at that level this offseason, though.
Boz
2:26
Mr. Shildt, the Padres are on line 1
Steve Adams
2:26
Yeah Shildt will be an insta-candidate for the Padres and Mets.
2:27
Doesn't mean he'll get the job, but I'd be surprised if he didn't interview for both.
George Hunt
2:27
Will the jays re-sign Ray?
Steve Adams
2:29
Generally speaking, with any top free agent, I'll take the field over one specific team -- even the incumbent. There are rare exceptions (Wainwright, Molina, Freeman), but in Ray's case, I'd expect him to cash in for at least five, if not six years. The Jays already have Springer on the books, will want to extend Vlad and Bo eventually. It's not impossible, but I find it likelier that he departs.
Lobo Sr.
2:29
Steve: Good Afternoon. Do the Marlins swing for the fences for Correa and or Kimbel? Resources should be available.
Steve Adams
2:30
Same as with the Cubs -- there's just no way I can see them spending at that level.
Lew Sbowels
2:30
Who ya got in game 5 tonight, and why?
Steve Adams
2:31
It's hard to bet against Logan Webb after that Game 1 showing. It's one game, so anything can happen, but if I'm forced to choose, I lean Giants at home with Webb going.
Matt
2:31
Do you think Xander will opt out of his contract to get a bigger payday?  His agent is Boras!!
Steve Adams
2:32
The whole "It's Boras!!!" thing has become somewhat overstated in recent years. Boras was also Bogaerts' agent when he took that wildly below-market deal.

At the end of the day, Boras works for the player. If the player really wants to take the deal, he'll tell Scott to take the deal -- as Xander did.

That said, I don't see how he forgoes the opt-out. At the very least, he'll use it as leverage to get more added onto the current deal.
Zach
2:32
Would 7 years $175 million be a good contract for Trevor Story?
Steve Adams
2:34
It'd be a great deal for Story. I'm lighter than that both in years and annual value. He's better than his end-of-season numbers, and the home/road splits are somewhat overblown. His numbers won't be as shiny away from Coors, of course, but that's a large part of the reason that park-adjusted numbers like wRC+ and OPS+ exist. He'll still be a power-hitting, quality defender at his position moving forward -- provided this year's elbow trouble was both relatively minor and also at least a partial reason behind his dip in offensive output and defensive ratings.
Rangers29
2:35
How long do you think until Jack is on the bump in Texas?
Steve Adams
2:36
Early to mid 2023? I would think they'll get him a full year of development in '22 -- advanced as the arm already is.
Longos Bongos
2:37
Do you see big changes coming to the TB roster for 2022? As in, half the 26 or more not on the Rays next season?
Steve Adams
2:39
Half seems like a lot, but there'll be some turnover, of course. There is every year. I think that with Margot, Phillips, Arozarena, Josh Lowe and Austin Meadows all on hand, it's likely they'll move Kiermaier (finally -- after like 2+ years of debating it).

Seems quite possible they trade Glasnow to a team who's eyeing him as a 2023 play, because otherwise the Rays are on the hook for $5-6MM for a guy who won't throw a pitch in 2022.
2:40
Yarbrough is a non-tender/trade candidate, too. And there's very often turnover on that bench/in that bullpen.
Paul DeJong
2:40
Am I going the way of the Shildt after losing my starting job?
Steve Adams
2:41
DeJong is someone I can see traded this offseason, for sure. Bat declined, but the contract is still pretty friendly and the glove is great.
Steve Nebraska
2:41
Would on Earth would the Mets consider Josh Byrnes?!?
Steve Adams
2:43
Why wouldn't they? He's been a key voice in an immensely successful Dodgers front office. His runs as the GM in San Diego and Arizona weren't especially memorable, but he was working under pretty notable budget constraints (especially in SD), and that was nearly a decade ago. He's surely grown and learned while working alongside some very highly regarded peers. If he were incompetent or something, he wouldn't have been L.A.'s senior VP of baseball operations for several years running now.
Baseball
2:44
Who do you think will get the biggest free agent contract this offseason
Steve Adams
2:44
Correa, followed by Seager, and then a pretty big step down.
Magnet Salesman
2:44
Should the Cubs move Kyle Hendricks this winter? And if so, you might as well move Willy C, right?
Steve Adams
2:44
Contreras is a free agent post-
Oops
2:45
Post-2022.  Hendricks is signed through 2023 with a 2024 option. Contreras seems likelier to go, but to your point, I can see them listening on (and trading) both.
Jed Hoyer
2:46
How does this sound for an "active but intelligent" offseason: 1 year deals to all of Thor, E. Rodriguez, Kyle Seager, Corey Dickerson, Tommy Pham, and Chris Owings plus tiny major league deals or minor league deals for pitching depth and a backup catcher?
Steve Adams
2:47
I think you're grossly underestimating Eduardo Rodriguez's earning power, and I think Seager is an easy two-year deal as well. Dickerson, Pham, sure. Chris Owings ... I know he hit well in 50 PAs with Colorado this year, but he's a .198/.267/.316 hitter over his part 600 MLB plate appearances. They have better options in house.
Spenc O
2:48
If the DBacks were “open for business” what would they be able to get for a package of Marte and Carson Kelly?
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