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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams 10/14/21
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Steve Adams
2:49
The moon? Haha.

It'd be a huge player package, but I still wonder they might be better-served moving them in separate deals. Arizona already has a decent farm. Moving a pair of players  like that, especially Marte and his contract, could move them into the Top 5-8 range.
Pudge72
2:50
Opening day 2022 for White Sox: Eloy in LF, Vaughn in RF, Sheets DH???
Steve Adams
2:51
I hope for their sake they figure out a better defensive alignment than Eloy and Vaughn in the corner.
corners*
Josh Bell
2:51
If you were Mike Rizzo, are you extending, trading now, or just holding Josh Bell until the trade deadline?
Steve Adams
2:53
With a $10MM projected arb salary, I don't think there's a ton of surplus value. It's not a colossal overpay or anything, but I just don't see the value in a trade being all that high. And the Nats want to get back to competing quickly, so if the choice is pay a solid 1B that $10MM or trade him for a mediocre return, I'd expect them to hold.
Would be easier to move him at the deadline next year if things don't go well. And if he keeps hitting like he did in the final 3-4 months, he'll be in demand (with half his salary already paid out and the option for the Nats to sweeten the pot by including some cash)
Mr Question
2:54
Smaller payroll next year. Pittsburgh or Miami or TB or Cleveland? Will any of them start the year under $40 million, assuming the new CBA allows that?
Steve Adams
2:55
Each of Miami, Cleveland and Tampa Bay will be well north of that. They'll all be making win-now moves this winter, even if they're lower-budget in nature. Pittsburgh won't be. Lowest payroll in 2022 is probably the Pirates or the Orioles.
House Md
2:55
Soler or Joc would be a sweet DH next season for ATL, right?
Steve Adams
2:55
Soler much more so than Joc, but yeah, I think the NL DH will help Soler's market a lot.
Top 50 FA
2:55
When should we expect the release?
Steve Adams
2:55
We typically release it after the World Series.
Guest
2:56
I feel that Kyle Schwarber would be a perfect fit in San Diego. What do you think a contract would like there
Steve Adams
2:57
Four years at a pretty healthy AAV. He's not quite as consistent and is a little more platoony, but the bottom-line results aren't that different from Nick Castellanos. I think Castellanos will do better than Schwarber, but people are probably underrating Schwarber's earning power because of last year's non-tender. I know I was until I really dug into it with Tim Dierkes and Anthony Franco.
Guest
2:57
Tigers sign Correa. W Change my mind.
Steve Adams
2:59
It's certainly feasible. At the same time, I'll caution that a lot of the speculation is fueled by the AJ Hinch connection, and Hinch isn't the GM or the owner. He certainly has sway, of course, but we've never seen Chris Ilitch in "buy" mode and don't know the extent to which he'll authorize spending. His late father, Mike, was comfortable running out $200MM+ payrolls. We don't know that to be true of Chris, and GM Al Avila has emphasized the team will be aggressive but won't "spend like drunken sailors," either.

I think a Correa deal is possible, but I don't consider them some kind of overwhelming favorite. I find the Phillies to be an eminently plausible alternative, for instance, and Correa's market will be pretty expansive and include pretty much all the big-market clubs.
grw
3:00
Availability of Ryan McMahon?
Steve Adams
3:00
Non-existent. The Rockies think they're going to win next year.
British scout
3:00
Better fit for Santander. Marlins or Cleveland? What can Baltimore reasonably get im return pitching wise? Both teams need outfielders and have pitching.
Steve Adams
3:02
They're both plausible fits, but Santander's trade value was a lot higher before he put up a .286 OBP with a 120-point drop in ISO this year. I don't think the return on him would be all that impactful. Couple of mid-tier, 40-FV arms?
3:04
Santander was about 3% below average at the plate in '19 and about 8% below in '21, and those seasons combined make up a sample that's 5x larger than last year's big showing. I think he's much closer to a roughly average-hitting corner OF than to the All-Star he looked like in 2020.
Barrelman
3:04
Does Eduardo Rodriguez receive and accept the QO? I know he could get more years but a strong platform year could get him a monster deal at his age.
Steve Adams
3:06
He should get it, and I still think he should reject it. The ERA isn't great, but beyond that, his secondary metrics are all strong. Teams aren't going to care a ton about the ERA when you're talking about a 29-year-old lefty who's 93-94 mph with a K-BB% greater than 20%. I'm four years on the guy, and I'm not even the highest on him among the MLBTR staff.
Love these chats
3:06
Who do you think is happier with the results of the Jon Lester/ Lane Thomas trade, Cards or Nats?
Steve Adams
3:08
Can it be both? Lester helped solidify that rotation, and Thomas looks very much like the intriguing prospect he was in St. Louis. I don't know why the Cardinals never really gave him a look with all the outfield turnover and inconsistency they had prior to finally settling in on O'Neill-Bader-Carlson (for now anyway).

I'd personally take the Nationals' side of it, just because I like the long-term value Thomas potentially brings, but the Cards have to be pretty pleased with how it turned out.
Roberts/Friedman
3:08
Nothing on our decision to start Knebel tonight?
Steve Adams
3:11
Dodgers do all kinds of odd pitching things that make me scratch my head. I don't think it's as bizarre as a lot of people are making it out to be. It forces the Giants to decide whether to start some left-handed bats early on and then possibly burn out their bench early when Urias comes in after the first or second inning. It's kind of fun.
3:12
This very thing, by the way, is why I don't understand how people say that adding a DH to the NL "kills strategy."

The game has more strategy in it than ever before! We've got a reliever starting in Game 5 of a Division Series between the two best teams in baseball! It's fun.
Brewer Bozo
3:12
Would the Dbacks be tempted by Hader for Marte?
Steve Adams
3:13
No. Hader is more expensive and has less team control than Marte.
If the D-backs move Hader, it's for younger, more controllable talent. And lots of it.
Phils Phan
3:14
Are the Phillies going to focus on finding a staring CF, getting a new SS, or improving the farm system to replenish talent?
Steve Adams
3:14
Improving the defense in a series of win-now moves is my expectation. They're not going to focus on rebuilding the farm this winter.
Steve Nebraska
3:14
The DBacks can't move Hader Steve. He plays for the Brewers.
Steve Adams
3:14
Ha
That was not my finest moment, now was it?
redsfan43
3:16
Here the Reds choke out of the playoffs and Bell gets a 2 year contract reward.  The Cardinals    went on a 17 win streak and loose a 1 game wild card game and they fire their manager.
Steve Adams
3:16
Managerial hirings/firings are based on a lot more than wins/losses -- now more than ever.
Contract the Nationals
3:17
There seems to be a fair bit of sentiment among fans that the Yankees should move on from Thames after the team's poor performance on the offensive side. Do you believe that that would be the right call or no, given his track record of strong offensive teams and reworking player approaches?
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