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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 10/16/24
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Yankees Fan
3:16
Watching the playoffs makes me think about Rizzo's club option for 2025 which amounts to a one year $11m contract. Taking into consideration his age, injury history, and any other relevant factors, is it a reasonable contract, an overpay, or a bargain?
Steve Adams
3:17
I don't think he'd get $11MM on the open market coming off the season he had. And while it's a net $11MM decision, that $11MM still goes against the Yankees' luxury tax ledger. Assuming they're top-tier penalty bracket again next year, that makes it an extra $23.1MM of spending for them. Hard pass.
HUVIE33
3:17
Is Gleyber's strong finish since becoming the leadoff hitter increase his odds of a QO or are the Yanks done with him, unless they move Jazz they don't really have a replacement for him unless you trust the prospects?
Steve Adams
3:18
I don't think there's any way Gleyber gets a QO, and if he did receive one he'd accept it.
John
3:18
Did Tanner Scott earn millions more by k’ing Ohtani 4x? (Maybe 3 times?)
Steve Adams
3:20
I think he just reinforced that he's one of the two best relievers on this year's market. He might've created a bit more buzz for himself, but I don't think it dramatically changed his earning power. I think he's looking four years north of $50MM in guarantees regardless, and he's probably the one reliever I can see a team getting silly and offering a fifth year on (not that I find it likely)
Jimmy
3:20
Any chance the Marlins would move Alcantara?  If so, what kind of package would it take?
Steve Adams
3:21
I thought so, but their president Peter Bendix has gone on record to say he expects Alcantara to start for them on Opening Day 2025. That's obviously not a firm declaration that he will not trade Alcantara, but it's enough to make me back off on the possibility of a trade.
Dbacksfan
3:21
With Christian Walker leaving and Paul Goldschmidt hitting free agency, do you think there is a chance Goldie goes back to the Diamondbacks?
Steve Adams
3:22
I think it's feasible, sure. They could just go super cheap and keep Pavin Smith there -- he hit well in a small sample this year -- but they should be open-minded about bringing in a 1B and Goldschmidt's not going to command more than one year.
Tiger Fan
3:22
What on earth do we do with Baez? Any chance they just cut him loose?
Steve Adams
3:22
Scott Harris has already said he sees a role for Baez on next year's team. Doubt he's simply cut this winter.
MarioSoto
3:22
Do you think Santander would be in the Reds’ price range? If not who?
Steve Adams
3:23
Yeah, I think any of Santander, Teoscar, Tyler O'Neill will be plausible for the Reds.
Andre Thee Giant
3:23
Do you think Brett Baty ends up being moved in a trade this off-season rather than getting another shot to establish himself with the Mets?
Steve Adams
3:23
We're working on our list of the top offseason trade candidates (as well as our top 50 free agent rankings) and Baty is on there.
Craig
3:23
Thoughts on the Guards trading Josh Naylor this offseason?
Steve Adams
3:24
That's my expectation and is shared by a fair bit of the staff here at MLBTR, yeah
Chris A
3:25
I'm seeing rumors regarding the Twins moving Pablo Lopez to trim payroll. What could the Twins realistically get for him?
Steve Adams
3:28
I haven't seen anything on the subject other than Cody at TwinsDaily.com speculating on the possibility. If the Pohlads want to trim payroll ahead of a sale and/or if the front office has no money to spend to improve the roster then sure, it logically makes sense. But that's not the same as a report that they're actually discussing the possibility.

If they were to put him out there, he'd be the most sought-after pitcher on the market. He's basically owed the Chris Bassitt contract but is five years younger than Bassitt was when he signed the deal. There's enormous surplus value on the deal, as a free agent version of Lopez right now would sign for at least five years -- possibly six. They could rightly ask for legitimate top-50 prospect(s) in the game and/or controllable young big leaguers.

I don't expect that'll happen, for what it's worth, but it remains to be seen how the front office will be operating now that ownership announced intent to explore a sale.
John
3:29
How much of a joke is the GG awards with Soto being a finalist?
Steve Adams
3:29
Rafael Palmeiro won a Gold Glove in 1999 when he played 28 games at first base and spent the rest of the season at DH.
3:30
The Gold Glove has never exactly been a true benchmark of elite glovework
baseball gods laugh and laugh
3:30
What kind of contract do you predict for Jose Iglesias? One of the more challenging players to value, I imagine.
Steve Adams
3:32
I don't think it's very challenging. He's 35 and still not hitting for any power. All of his production this year has been a result of the same plus bat-to-ball skills he's always had and a massive .392 BABIP that's going to regress.

He can still play defense, he can still put the ball in play. The clubhouse vibes are off the charts. It's not a profile that's going to net him multiple years in all likelihood. He'll sign for a year and something like $5-6MM. Maybe if someone just loves the personality and clubhouse stuff he could get 2/12, but I don't see it.
Doug Mackenzie
3:32
Could you see the Yankees calling Gerit Cole's bluff and NOT add another year? I mean, he turns 35,And if he leaves you can go for a younger starter, like Burnes.
Steve Adams
3:33
I talked about this at length with Tim Dierkes, Anthony Franco and Darragh McDonald today. Our reads on the situation generally vary. I'm probably the biggest proponent of him just forgoing the opt-out. I think if he triggers the out, the Yankees will decline to tack on the necessary 10th year at $36MM to keep him, and they'd be wiser to spend that money in a pursuit of Burnes/Snell/Fried, yes. (Or to just sweeten their offer to Soto)
3:35
Most of the rest of the staff seems to think he should try to force the issue... trigger the out and then go after max AAV on a 4- or 5-year deal. The market treats older, potential HOF pitchers differently than most. It's why we saw deGrom sign a unicorn contract despite him seeming to everyone (Rangers included, presumably) like a ticking timebomb. It's why Scherzer and Verlander got $43MM AAVs so late in their careers.

It's feasible to me that Cole could get like 4/150 or 5/170 if he takes the out and the Yankees let him walk. And it's true that his "downside" is probably still in the $120MM range, so he's only risking like $24MM in guaranteed money.
3:36
I can see the case for trying to force the issue, but I do think there's a legitimate chance he comes out behind in the gambit.
And probably playing for a team other than the one for which he grew up cheering. So ... I don't know. It depends on his personal preferences. It's one of the more fascinating scenarios of the early offseason.
yo adrian
3:36
with the lack of center fielders this off-season, I would think bellinger would opt out. he can get way more than the 2/50 he has left on his contract
Steve Adams
3:38
I disagree. The market hasn't reacted to supply and demand in that regard in quite some time. Bellinger has $50MM left on his deal, and if he forgoes the opt-out he's guaranteed another $30MM of that. The only way he should opt out right now is if he's not confident in his ability to have another strong season in Chicago and then handily trounce $20MM on next year's free agent market. Any deal he signs right now isn't going to pay him $30MM next year.

If he were a free agent right now, I wouldn't predict him to sign for much more than $60-80MM. I don't think he should opt out.
Guest
3:38
Will Trey Sweeney be Tigers starting shortstop next year?
Steve Adams
3:39
He'll be in the mix, but I would wager that even the Tigers' president of baseball operations, Scott Harris, would tell you he doesn't know for certain who'll be his shortstop on Opening Day next year. We'll have to see how the Adames market plays out, and there are various other options likely to be available in trade.
Kote
3:40
What avenue could the M's take to get Yoshida? Perfect hitter to balance out that line-up.
Steve Adams
3:41
If the M's want a low-power DH with minimal strikeout concerns there are plenty of ways to go that don't include taking on the final three years of that underwater contract.
Call the Orioles and make an offer for Ryan O'Hearn, who'll be on a one-year deal worth $8MM
HSK
3:42
Kim's recovery from injury might keep him from playing until May (or later) next year. Any chance he's signed on a 1-year deal for just next year, and if so what might that deal look like?
Steve Adams
3:43
It's so hard to know without the team, player, agency etc. releasing any sort of timetable for his recovery. I saw Kevin Acee with the San Diego Union-Tribune suggesting he might be ready mid-April, but that wasn't reported firmly and was kind of buried/suggested as an aside.

I think Kim is young enough and good enough that a straight one-year deal won't be what he has to settle for. At the very least, a two-year deal that allows him to opt out next offseason should be on the table.
Reinsdorf
3:44
Does anyone really think of the White Sox as a big market club?  Bottom 3 in attendance this year and 2nd team in a 1 team town.  How likely is it that the league gets rid of the ridiculous anti-tanking no lottery rule in the next CBA?
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