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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 10/18/22
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Mcfly
11:48
Sea's- Flexon =trade bait?  23' salary @ 8M. Kinda expensive for 6th starter or guy in the bullpen.
Steve Adams
11:49
Yeah, I do think Chris Flexen could be moved this winter. Rotation is deep without him, and can't rule out the M's bringing in another arm. Same applied to Marco Gonzales, really. Castillo, Ray, Gilbert, Kirby ... strong top four even if they move one of the in-house fourth/fifth options.
Cardinals
11:49
if You were Mozeliak, would you pursue a Catcher (Contreras) SS (Swanson) or starting pitcher in free agency? Would they be players in the trade market for Murphy and potential front of the rotation arms?
Steve Adams
11:52
They're a good fit for Murphy. I don't think it has to be a binary thing where they'll only focus on adding a catcher, or a shortstop, or a rotation upgrade. As with all teams, all of these needs can exist in conjunction with one another, as can pursuits to upgrade them. I'm not sure I see adding another nine-figure deal alongside Arenado/Goldy -- assuming they're able to keep Nolan -- so Swanson's a tough fit for me.

As far as trading for a top-of-the-rotation arm ... there aren't going to be too many available.
(If any)
Paul
11:52
They should retire the pitcher win stat - agree or disagree and why
Steve Adams
11:54
Why retire it? People will still keep track of it anyway, and even if you disagree with its usefulness or importance -- I personally place little to no emphasis/value on it -- there's no harm in tracking it. Lots of people love the Win, and just because I don't find it useful or interesting doesn't mean those who disagree shouldn't track, evaluate or enjoy the game the way they prefer.
Orioles
11:54
Is Santander a trade piece or someone who we should be building around?
Steve Adams
11:55
I don't think they're going to build around Santander. I'm sure they'll listen to offers for him this winter even as they look to also put a winning club on the team in 2023. Any trades involving him will probably now be more focused on MLB-ready (or very near to it) talent than past trades.

If they don't get an offer to their liking, they'll keep him and put him back in the middle of next year's lineup.
Rando
11:55
If Twins don't resign Correa, do they go for any of the other top SS options?
Steve Adams
11:57
I feel like if they're not willing to pay Correa's price, that'll also rule them out for Turner.

Bogaerts and Swanson will (or should) cost less -- Swanson in particular. I can see them playing in that price range, but they might also just give Royce Lewis a real look at that point (possibly adding a boring veteran like Jose Iglesias as insurance) and then spend the Correa resources elsewhere (rotation, bullpen, catcher)
Starting Glut
11:57
Even if the Astros don’t re-sign Verlander, they have Valdez, McCullers, and Javier up front with Garcia and Urquidy as high ceiling guys and Brown as a fifth guy. Who would you deal from that bounty and what would you expect in return?
Steve Adams
11:58
I wouldn't call Urquidy a "high ceiling" guy. He's a solid fourth starter and that's plenty valuable, but he's also further along in the arbitration process and the clear one from that group to trade, in my view.
TBRay
11:58
We were in deep on Freeman last year, could we shock the world and land DeGrom on short-term, high-AA deal?
Steve Adams
11:59
I believe the reported offer to Freeman was $25MM annually over six years. I think deGrom is going to top $40MM annually. I wouldn't necessarily say the Freeman pursuit makes deGrom feasible. They're not exactly the same.
Lucas
12:00
Cleveland was reportedly “second place” last offseason in trades for Olson and Winker, and Rodon as a free agent. That doesn’t take away how much the ownership hates spending money though. Should we expect that the management are finally going to reel in some players that are upgrades for us, or is it going to be another year of “we didn’t get them, all that matters is we tried”.
Steve Adams
12:00
Last time they made a deep playoff run they signed Encarnacion for three years and $60MM. It's not a huge move relative to other clubs, but if they make it to the ALCS or World Series, could they perhaps sign a Jose Abreu or some notable free agent who won't command a super long-term deal? Sure.
Cubs free agency prediction
12:01
They will sign Abreu, Senga, and sprinkle in relievers and Cubs fans will be livid lol
Steve Adams
12:01
None of that feels unrealistic to me.
D
12:01
Steve: Good Afternoon. Who manages the Marlins next year?
Steve Adams
12:02
The Marlins don't even know the answer to this! If you want me to just take a blind guess, and that's all it is -- Joe Espada. But there's nothing driving that other than the fact that he's already interviewed there and is generally regarded as a manager-in-waiting.
Braves fan
12:03
In what scenario can Braves unload ozuna and his deal
Steve Adams
12:04
No one's taking that deal. They can and should just release him. He's been below replacement level since re-signing, to say nothing of the off-field issues. I don't think they're accomplishing anything by hanging onto him at this point.
Guest
12:05
What kind of package would the Red Sox need to cough up to trade for Alcantara?
Steve Adams
12:05
The Marlins aren't trading Alcantara.
Big fan
12:05
Would you pay degrom $40m with that injury history? Lol
Steve Adams
12:06
I'm not a billionaire who owns a team, but someone will do it this winter.
Guest
12:07
Jose Abreu fit with the Brewers this offseason? Platoon/DH woth Rowdy Tellez?
Steve Adams
12:11
In my personal team-by-team payroll projections, I was aggressive with the Brewers in terms of declining options (Wong, Boxberger) and trading/non-tendering arb-eligible guys (Renfroe, Hiura, etc.). Even doing that, I have them at $94MM, which is only about $42MM from their record payroll. That doesn't include pre-arb guys to round out the roster and is before making a single move to address the roster. I don't think spending $18-20MM per year on Abreu makes sense.

Milwaukee's huge arb class, the Yelich deal, etc. are all inflating the payroll in a hurry. It's a large reason they were open to trading Hader. I don't think Abreu is happening, no.
12:15
Alright I've got to wrap up for the week. Thanks, as always, for chatting -- and sorry for all the questions I can't get to in these. I'm on Twitter @Adams_Steve if you're so inclined and always happy to take more questions there.

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Have a great week, everyone!
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