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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 10/7/25
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Steve Adams
8:55
Good morning! I'll get going around 1pm CT, but feel free to submit questions ahead of time, as always.
1:00
Good afternoon! Let's get underway
Derek
1:01
Do Alec Bohm and A Garcia get non tendered? Not sure either team wants to commit 10+million to them
Steve Adams
1:02
I think Bohm will be non-tendered. Garcia has a chance to be traded somewhere to a team looking to buy low, but a NT is still possible there. I think he's done with the Rangers one way or another.
Brooklyngail
1:02
Your prediction. Does HSK pick up his option and stay in Atlanta or does he test the market?
Steve Adams
1:03
No, I expect him to head back to the market. He got more than 1/16 when he was fresh off shoulder surgery. Even if it's another two-year deal with an opt-out, he should be able to lock in more guaranteed money now that he's healthy -- plus the market is devoid of actual shortstop options.

Braves could always try to get him to sign on for a new three- or four-year deal before he declines the option, but if my choices are "he exercises it or declines it," I'm pretty comfortably in the latter camp.
Depressed Oriole
1:04
Mountcastle worth 8 mil in a trade or non tender more likely?
Steve Adams
1:04
I'd lean toward the non-tender, but he's not a Nate Lowe-esque lock to be non-tendered. I could see a team giving up a negligible return to plug him in at 1B/DH at that price.
Squints
1:05
Does Woody end up back with Brewers next year?
Steve Adams
1:06
No, I fully expect him to turn down his end of the mutual option and land a multi-year deal beyond what the Brewers feel they can pay. Given how adept they've proven at finding affordable starting pitching, paying market price for Woodruff coming off shoulder/lat injuries doesn't seem like the best use of their resources -- fan favorite or not.
Guest
1:07
Rank the projected total contract value of the top SP this winter: Bieber, Valdez, King, and Suarez
Steve Adams
1:08
Framber and Ranger are ahead of Bieber and King based on recent health, age and track record. I'd probably go Bieber ahead of King right now just because King's health is a total wild card and Bieber is healthy/pitching in October.

Valdez and Suarez are both comfortable nine-figure guys for me
Ian
1:08
Any realistic landing spots for Alonso other than the Mets?
Steve Adams
1:12
Plenty. I don't think he'll be back in Queens. Red Sox, Angels, Reds, Mariners, Padres, Rangers, Guardians all make varying degrees of sense, though skeptical about the Texas fit after the Bochy departure and the "financial uncertainty" talk. Obviously not all of those teams are realistic fits (Cleveland's not paying him $100MM+), but having some of those clubs on the periphery of the market is enough to keep some of the others bidding more seriously. Pretty good fit in Boston, where Craig Breslow sidestepped when asked if he could commit to Casas as his 1B next year the other day.
Adge
1:12
Do you like Toronto to sign one of Bieber, Framber, King, Cease, Woodruff,or Ranger,
Steve Adams
1:14
I like the Jays to add at least one notable starter this winter, yeah -- whether that's signing one of those guys or trading for a Mitch Keller, Joe Ryan, whoever.

Currently they have Gausman, Yesavage, Berrios, Lauer and a bunch of question marks. (Lauer is a question himself, really)

And after 2026, Gausman is a free agent and Berrios can opt out. I think they'll be in the market for multiple SPs
MoonbeamMcSwine
1:14
Does Chaim Bloom "clean house" w/ the Cardinals.. choosing to stock their farm system over competing against perhaps the toughest division in baseball (w/ Milwaukee & Chicago)?
Steve Adams
1:15
I don't expect too many "untouchables" for the Cards this winter. They're not moving Masyn Winn or JJ Wetherholt, but beyond the pricey veterans (Arenado, Gray, Contreras) I expect them to be open to offers on Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, JoJo Romero, etc. etc.
Larry from Clarksville
1:15
Can you explain Imanaga's contract and if you think the Cubs exercise the club option given his alarming home run issues?
Steve Adams
1:16
Cubs have to choose whether to pick up a three-year, $57MM club option -- effectively extending him through 2028. If they decline, he can pick up a $15MM player option for 2026 or decline and head to free agency.

If Imanaga exercises his player option, the Cubs would have a two-year club option after 2026. If the team declined that, he'd have another player option for 2027.
1:18
I am increasingly coming around on the idea that maybe they just don't want to commit $19MM per year to him for another three seasons, which would've seemed silly to me a few months ago. I was texting a bit with MLBTR's Tim Dierkes and Anthony Franco about this last night. Tim, being in Chicago and closer to the situation than I am up in St. Paul, said he still leans toward the Cubs taking the safe route and picking up the option, but yeah ... them declining is definitely a scenario that seems plausible now in a way that was not true even in like, July.
I think if the Cubs decline their option, he'll turn down the player option and do better than $15MM on the open market.
Adam W.
1:19
Will Pete Alonso or Alex Bregman get a bigger free agent contract this winter?
Steve Adams
1:19
Bregman, easily
Craig
1:19
Wandy Peralta of the Padres has a 4.45 million player option for 2026.  Do you think he exercises the option to remain in San Diego or does he decline and become a free agent?
Steve Adams
1:21
I could see it going either way but I lean toward exercising it since he also has a $4.45MM player option for 2027. He's guaranteed two years and $8.9MM right now, and the last time he was a free agent (two years younger, throwing a bit harder and with a better K%), the market didn't exactly love him.
Luxury Tax
1:22
Does contract money changing hands a/effect a teams luxury tax total? If the Reds were to add an expensive player via trade this winter but the former team sends some money with that player, how does the luxury tax "hit" get allocated? All on Cinci because they have the player? readjusted for Cinci because their dollars will be smaller than the contract? *Cinci used as a placeholder since we all know they will never approach even the hint of Luxury Tax waters*
Steve Adams
1:24
The money changing hands impacts the CBT hit. If the Cardinals were to trade Sonny Gray back to Cincinnati for a reunion (sticking with your "this won't happen" motif), the CBT hit would be recalibrated to reflect what's remaining on the contract. So for the Cardinals, Gray has been a $25MM CBT hit. He signed a three-year, $75MM deal, and CBT hits are based on AAV.

When the player is traded, however, the acquiring team is taxed based on what's left. Gray would be a $40MM CBT hit for the Reds.

If the Cards kicked in $25MM to help offset that, then he'd still count $25MM against the Cardinals' tax number and $15MM against the Reds'.
(That $40MM being derived from Gray's $35MM salary in 2026 plus the $5MM buyout on his 2027 option)
TxDude
1:25
Will we ever see the Red Sox be a force in free agency like they used to be? I feel like it was always either Boston or New York that all the FAs wanted to sign with
Steve Adams
1:26
They just guaranteed $120MM to Bregman last winter!

But I get the question. That was more an opportunistic "soft" (heavy usage of air quotes there, haha) landing for Bregman. I imagine at some point, they'll be more willing to spend aggressively early in the winter but think the actions of ownership over the past five to eight years have increasingly suggested they prefer not to revisit the "let's beat the market for a 31-year-old David Price" well anytime soon.
1:27
So ... probably somewhere in between the two extremes we've seen. Possibly as soon as this winter, since I do think they'll look into higher-end SPs
Carson
1:27
Is there a team that would be interested in a Josh Jung trade? He surely has some value with 3 remaining years of club control and a relatively cheap projected $3M ARB1.
Steve Adams
1:28
Absolutely. Tigers, Pirates, Nats, Marlins, Mariners, Royals (move Maikel Garcia to 2B) ... I can think of plenty who'd love to roll the dice on Jung, and I do think the Rangers will be open to exploring that possibility this winter.
Cleveland
1:29
Think we could pry one of Adley/Neto with our farm?
Steve Adams
1:30
Neto feels like an extreme long shot. Rutschman a bit more plausible, but Mike Elias has spoken repeatedly -- including on our podcast -- about how he fully anticipates Adley to be catching in Baltimore next year. He's naturally stopped short of definitively declaring "I will not trade this player," but they'd be selling low and Basallo hasn't exactly shown he's ready for a full season as a big league catcher yet. O's also probably aren't all that keen on dealing Rutschman "just" for prospects.

(Nor would the Angels be keen on doing that with Neto, for what it's worth)
PolarBearLeaving?
1:31
You mentioned Alonso and also Bregman.  If what you say is true about Alonso leaving/not being resigned, what about the Mets signing Bregman to play 3rd and Murakami to play 1st.  That would certainly change the vibe and core and you might make up some (but not all) of Alonso
Steve Adams
1:32
Yeah I think the Mets will be in on both Bregman and Munetaka Murakami, who, for those unaware, is a 25-year-old (26 in Feb) corner infielder who's hit 22 homers in 224 PAs in Japan this season and will be posted in the offseason. He also has significant defensive and strikeout concerns, but he's still going to get paid by a major league team because of the 80 raw power.
John
1:33
Could Cedric Mullins return to the Orioles?
Steve Adams
1:34
If he's out there in February and hasn't found a deal to his liking, sure I can see him going back for a year. I wouldn't predict it as likely, but it's not as through any bridges were burned there (at least not that I'm aware of)
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