Chat With MLBTR's Steve Adams: 10/9/18
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Steve Adams
3:42
Greetings all -- we're through one fun week of postseason play (well, depending on your team of preference I suppose) with several more to go and then a stacked free-agent class awaits in the offseason
3:43
Arbitration projections are also out this afternoon, so be sure to check those out! I'll field questions on them as best I can, though I didn't develop the algorithm (and am woefully unqualified for such things, ha)

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/mlb-arbitration-salaries-2019.h...
Mike
3:44
Do you see the Giants adding bats through free agency or going the trade route?
Steve Adams
3:45
It'll depend to some degree on who is hired and what direction the team goes. I can't see them rebuilding, though. Generally, their farm isn't strong, but depending on the position they pursue, it might not be that costly to acquire someone. Corner bats don't cost all that much, if anything, on the trade market, for instance. (e.g. Corey Dickerson)
Victor victor mesa
3:45
Where do i end up playing baseball?
Steve Adams
3:46
My current guess is the Marlins -- I think they can sell both brothers on the proximity to Cuba, the heavy Latin American culture in South Florida, etc. They're also continuing to add international dollars to close the gap between their max offer and the Orioles.
AJ
3:46
What kind of contract is Wilson Ramos looking at this offseason?
Steve Adams
3:48
We're starting to debate this sort of thing in an ongoing email between myself, Tim Dierkes and Jeff Todd as we gear up for the Top 50 free agent list and predictions. I'm a little more bullish than Tim i the early stages, it seems, but I think he can pull in a solid three-year deal -- something in the 3/30 range. Injuries will always be a factor, but Ramos can flat out rake relative to other catchers throughout the league
JW
3:48
Any chance Goldschmidt gets traded this winter?
Steve Adams
3:51
I think there's a chance, for sure, but I'd lean against it coming together until next summer right now. It'll depend, to an extent, how much comes to light about their financial situation. If they really can't add any notable payroll to supplement what they have in house, it becomes more likely that they look to reload, I think. If they're able to add a few pieces and/or move/non-tender some arb-eligible guys to create some spending power, then they still have a decent core to make one more run with Goldy, Greinke, Ray, Peralta, Bradley, etc.
Ryan
3:51
Thad Levine said in an interview that he expects to be more active on the trade market this offseason in the wake of the 2018 campaign. Do you think this is because of how the free agents panned out this year, or because of a change in strategy (selling rather than buying, etc)
Steve Adams
3:54
I haven't seen his comments just yet, so I'd need to see full context, but I don't think the Twins (or really any organization in an increasingly data-driven baseball world) are going to use the failings of one group of free agents as a means of saying that future groups won't work out. They're unrelated.

If the Twins plan to be more active in trades, it's probably because they have a pretty stacked collection of potential fourth/fifth starters that are more or less big league ready, and they don't have the spots to use them all. Condensing that quantity into some higher-end quality, even at the cost of years of control, would serve them well.

Plus, some of the guys they were counting on to take steps forward in 2018 just failed to do that, which could change their internal valuation
Possible?
3:54
Harper signs 10/370 with opt outs after 3, 5, and 7
Steve Adams
3:55
Possible, I suppose, since we don't really know where teams are going to top out in what they're comfortable paying. That'd be a record, obviously. I'm still forecasting more than that for both Harper and Machado, though, in terms of both years and total guarantee.
Robbie Baseball
3:55
Of all the current managerial openings, which do you think is the most coveted?
Steve Adams
3:58
Going to the Angels or Twins means you're stepping right into a situation where the club expects to compete. Angels are in a large market with the game's best player, a perennially large payroll and probably no real danger of rebuilding anytime soon. I'd say them, then the Twins, but each candidate will have his own preferences based on geography, family, etc. And, really, there are only 30 of these jobs on the planet and they don't come around that often. They're all desirable in that sense.
Grab some pine meat
3:59
I can see moving Belt, and Panik for another quality pitcher, your thoughts?
Steve Adams
4:00
In a broad sense, I don't think that pairing is going to fetch all that great of a starter. Belt's contract is pretty substantial, and Panik had an awful season.
It is NOT a Reds October
4:00
Could the Reds take a chance on a guy like Alex Cobb? I'm sure the O's would love to shed that contract
Steve Adams
4:01
If they're going to spend $43MM on a pitcher, why would they choose Alex Cobb? Just sign one in free agency. Cobb just hasn't been very good since returning from Tommy John. I wrote last offseason how his asking price in free agency was insane, and he's only gotten worse since that time. That money could be way better spent.
Jordan
4:02
You guys use email to communicate not something like slack?
Steve Adams
4:03
Ha, we use instant messaging as well. But the early phases of that process are just a bulk "here's my thoughts on like 100 free agents and their markets/prices," and that's not as conducive to Slack, Google Chat, etc. We're all on somewhat different schedules.
Rocco Rox
4:04
Arenado for DeGrom who says no?
Steve Adams
4:05
They're both elite, but what's the point of the Mets trading multiple years of deGrom for one year of Arenado? It doesn't make them definitively better in 2019, and the Rockies come away with way more value overall given deGrom's extra year of control.
Johnny 5
4:05
What do you suppose Wade Miley will get in free agency? I'm guessing 1 yr/6-8mm or 2/10-12, which seems like that could be a real value buy if his output this year is even partially sustainable. Am I way off base in guessing his contract?
Steve Adams
4:06
Nah, that's more or less the general range that I'm in right now. He's not missing bats, and he's giving up hard contact at a career-high rate. There's a lot of smoke and mirrors in his current performance
Aaron
4:07
Do you think any team touches Addison
Steve Adams
4:08
Jose Reyes played again after a longer suspension, an arrest and more shocking allegations/charges against him. And he wasn't even a good player at the time. I'm sure some team will find a way to try to rationalize it.
Baltimore O
4:08
Who would want our managerial job?
Steve Adams
4:10
Like I said earlier, there are only 30 of those jobs in existence. There are hundreds of qualified people who'd love to manage in the Majors (plus tons of unqualified names who seem to get consideration anyway). They'll have a long list to choose from and won't have too many people deciding they don't want to bother interviewing or being considered.

But there's absolutely no way of knowing who will be considered until there's a new GM in place.
Buddy
4:11
So Buck Showalter suddenly got stupid in one year? Not saying he is blameless, but there is no way the 2018 Orioles are his fault.
Steve Adams
4:14
No one said it was. Managers aren't always let go because the team underperformed. Ownership wants to overhaul the entire organization, and they want to implement more data-driven decision-making, which isn't Showalter's strong suit. When you have Zach Britton talking publicly about how he just can't believe the volume of information he's been exposed to since going from BAL to NYY and how much it has helped him and made him think/grow as a pitcher ... stuff like that is why ownership wants to turn over the organization. Showalter was a part of that old guard and the Angelos sons are ready to move on.
Alex A
4:14
Do you think the Braves will go for it and make a run at one of Harper/Machado and Patrick Corbin?
Steve Adams
4:15
I can't imagine them ponying up enough to get Harper or Machado. Corbin, perhaps, but Anthopoulos strikes me more as someone who'll go for trades over free agency. I do wonder if they'll make a run at bringing Kimbrel back into the fold.
Robbie Baseball
4:16
Will Donaldson have to "settle" for a 2-year $30M type contract?  Or do you see him signing a 1-year "look at what I can still do" type contract and hope for the best next off-season?
Steve Adams
4:16
It'll come down to personal preference, but I'm expecting something like a year at $20MM. He hit well in a tiny sample after coming off the DL, and the upside is enormous if he's healthy.
robby
4:16
Which Padres corner OF has the most value among Renfroe, Reyes and Myers?
Steve Adams
4:19
Franmil is younger, with more control than Renfroe, and he already walks more. I'd go with him, though Renfroe is better with the glove. I don't think either has all that much value -- slugging right fielders with some K issues, so-so walk rates and anything short of elite outfield defense aren't the most popular commodities.

That Myers contract puts him below either of them
LGM
4:19
What are the chances the Mets non-tender d'Arnaud? Your arbitration projection for him seems a little high for a mediocre catcher coming off a lost season.
Steve Adams
4:20
With a new GM coming in, I can see that happening. The projected raise is only a $225K raise, which is nothing in arbitration. It might prove to be high by $100K or so, but he's not going to be given a pay cut. Could also see if another club has interest in buying low via trade.
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