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Chat With MLBTR's Steve Adams: 11/13/18
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Steve Adams
3:35
CHAT 2DAY?
Obviously. (79.1% | 491 votes)
 
Nope but thanks for asking. (20.9% | 130 votes)
 
Total Votes: 621
Greetings world! QO decisions are in, GM Meetings are over. Offseason beginning in earnest. Let's og
go, even!
Guest
3:35
Harper O/U 349.5
Steve Adams
3:36
We predicted $420MM in our Top 50, and even if he comes up shy of that, I think he'll top $350MM so it's the over for me
Mikaela
3:36
Is Brian McCann to the Angels a good fit?
Steve Adams
3:37
They need catching help and a left-handed bat, but McCann was objectively bad last season. Maybe that was due to the knee injury and he'll rebound in '19, but he'll be 35 in February. I think they should aim higher.
AKA22
3:37
Would you rather sign McCutchen or Brantley? Asking as a Braves fan if it matters.
Steve Adams
3:38
I think Brantley's the better hitter, but Cutch is likelier to stay healthy. They're really close in my mind. I prefer Brantley slightly just because he never strikes out, but McCutchen would be a totally viable option for Atlanta in LF/RF as well.
Prison Mike
3:39
With the Orioles taking so long to hire the front office, does that encourage you that they're getting the right fit?
Steve Adams
3:41
I truly don't know what to make of the Orioles drawing out this process so long. Frankly, if they were going to boot Duquette, they should've just done it midseason rather than let him handle the rebuild trades only to dump him after the season and go through the GM Meetings without an actual GM in place. What could they possibly have learned about Duquette in the final 2-3 months that they didn't already know? I'll reserve judgment to an extent until I see who they hire, but I don't understand why they didn't just jumpstart this process months ago.
Miguel Fernández
3:41
Non tenders candidate for the Phillies ?
Steve Adams
3:42
Justin Bour and Luis Garcia. Aaron Altherr perhaps as well.
moose33
3:43
Was Markakis resurgent 2018 a fluke, or do you think he really is a 2.5 win player in 2019/20?
Steve Adams
3:45
A significant portion of that WAR was derived from a 5-week fluky power spike to open the season. I've said in previous chats and don't have the numbers in front of me now, but he homered seven times in something like his first 150 PAs and then 7 times over next 575 PAs. I don't think he'll ever be as good as he was in 2018 again. Doesn't make him a useless player or anything, but he's basically a league-average bat with solid, but not elite defense at a non-premium position.
C
3:45
Do you think a.j. Pollock will get a deal over 100m?
Steve Adams
3:45
I think he'll be closer to 50 than to 100
3:46
Something like $60-68MM over four years.
Crawdelli
3:46
Nelson Cruz to the Rays.  They have the spare payroll and just acquired Zunino and Heredia to ease the transition.  He would be formidable in that fresh lineup and provide leadership.
Steve Adams
3:47
I like the Cruz/Rays pairing and generally think the Rays have the ability to spend more than people expect. If his market doesn't bring about a two-year deal, I'd buy them as a viable landing spot. But I do think he can get to two years (Astros? Twins? White Sox?), and I don't think the Rays would commit the necessary $13-16MM annually needed to get that done.
Pluto Shervington
3:48
Kipnis to TX for Choo and cash make any sense?
Steve Adams
3:49
A full season of Choo in the OF would be a disaster, and the Indians can't give him much DH time with EE and Alonso on the roster. Choo's the better bat, but I'd take even an inexperienced Kipnis in the OF over him.
Max Scherzer
3:50
Do you think there is a chance Patrick Corbin doesn't sign with a contender
Steve Adams
3:51
Depends on how you define "contender." He could sign with a team that missed the playoffs in '18, I suppose... Angels, for instance. But I don't think he's going to sign with the Tigers or Marlins or anything. He'll sign with a club that is clearly trying to win in 2019.
Felix Pie
3:51
What are the odds the cubs end up with one of Brantley, Donaldson, Cutch?
Steve Adams
3:54
At this point, I'd say pretty slim. I've talked to multiple agents this offseason who've suggested that (beyond just the Smyly trade) they're acting like they don't plan to spend much.

Tom Ricketts and the front office could be putting up some massive smokescreen, or maybe Ricketts is serious now but will have a change of heart down the road. For the time being, though, I think they'd look more at the trade market. Again, it's early, so in two months maybe we'll look back and this read will prove wildly wrong for some reason or another.
Michael Scarn
3:55
Do you think teams will wise up about big money closer signings?  Melancon, Wade Davis, and Shaw have been disasters.
Steve Adams
3:57
Shaw doesn't really fit in with those other two, as he's on a smaller scale. But I think the market will generally continue to push teams past the point of ration on in-demand free agents.

Also you could reasonably saw that Andrew Miller was well worth his contract. Ditto David Robertson. Kenley so far. In the end, those individual contracts have no real bearing on whether Craig KImbrel's next contract will be a good one or an albatross.
Mark
3:57
Did Machado REALLY cost himself anything with his poor playoff optics?
Steve Adams
3:59
I think it's possible, but it's a question that's pretty tough to answer with any real conviction. We looked at it this way -- Dan Lozano and his team at MVP Sports are going to be pitching directly to owners in a lot of these cases. Maybe a rational, data-driven GM would be willing to overlook the antics for an opportunity at a historically good free agent, but a billionaire owner is going to be far more likely to think emotionally and pay more mind to those optics.

If even one owner throughout the league who might've been in on Machado looks at that and says "Screw that guy, I don't want him representing my team," then it does have some degree of impact.
Les Gomez
4:00
Shaw for Bruce make sense?
Steve Adams
4:01
I don't hate the framework, and at the very least it'd fill the Rockies' yearly quota for an unnecessary left-handed-hitting OF addition.
joe
4:01
Which team provides the best fit if the Mariners decide to trade James Paxton?
Steve Adams
4:03
I don't think there's any one single best fit for the Mariners. They should just hope lots of teams are in the mix -- and that should be the case. Yankees, Astros, Braves, Phillies, Nationals, Twins could all offer some interesting mixes of more or less MLB-ready talent that could entice the M's.
Haloboltman
4:03
Do the Diamondbacks trade Greinke
Steve Adams
4:04
I think there's a pretty decent chance of that happening, yeah.
If they eat even $20MM or so, the contract isn't outrageous. It's not even wholly outrageous right now, but any team would want some help in paying it down.
Jean Luc
4:05
Machado is a better fit for the Phils than Harper.  What are the chances either of those two sign before the winter meetings?  Thanks.
Steve Adams
4:08
I think they're both good fits there. Most of the Phillies' internal OF options are as questionable as their 3B/SS options. I don't think either will sign before the Meetings but it's possible, I guess. Robinson Cano signed his $240MM deal before the Winter Meetings, I believe. So did Greinke, Price on their $200MM+ deals. Those contracts often take awhile to play out though -- all the more so when Boras is driving things (as he is with Harper)
STL
4:08
dexter to d/backs for greinke a trade of some young pitchers for goldschmdt and sign Donaldson world series?
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