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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 11/15/23
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Steve Adams
1:51
I think he'll clear $21MM in guaranteed money pretty easily
Mo's Speakeasy
1:52
Mo has said they'd look to add 3 starters and then turns around and said he doesnt expect payroll to increase much YoY.

Given this reserved 'double speak', which targets do you think STL actuallly lands?
Steve Adams
1:55
I don't think those two statements necessarily contradict one another. I never expected the Cardinals to just sign three guys. Someone was always likely to come over via trade, given the number of OFs they have to market.

Roster Resource currently projects the Cards for a $155MM payroll. That's about $20-25MM less than last year. That number also includes Tyler O'Neill's projected $5.5MM, Dakota Hudson's projected $3.7MM, Andrew Knizner's projected $2MM. O'Neill is a trade candidate. Hudson and Kniz are non-tender/trade candidates.

It's not hard to construct a scenario where after Friday's NT deadline they're $35MM-ish below last year's payroll. At that point, between further trade possibilities (e.g. Edman) and potentially backloading the top FA contract they give out, you can take a pretty wide-open view of their approach to adding starters.
Dealing Dave
1:55
Would Bieber for Castellanos be a starting point for a Philly-CLE deal ? Risk on both sides, but solving short term issues also. Or would Glasnow + Margot for prospects be a better thought ?
Steve Adams
1:55
Castellanos has negative trade value. Bieber does not.
Bill
1:56
Verdugo and cash for Bieber
Steve Adams
1:56
If the Guards trade Bieber, it's not going to be for another one-year rental player like Verdugo
1:57
I do think Verdugo makes some sense in Cleveland, but not in that scenario
Tom Cruise
1:57
Would you rather have 6 years of Dylan Crews, Elly de la Cruz or Oneil Cruz?
Steve Adams
1:58
That's fun both from a wordplay and thought exercise standpoint, ha. I'll take EDLC. Oneil has the recent injury. Dylan hasn't played in the big leagues yet and still has time for plenty to go wrong (not that I expect it to, but hey, injuries and wildly unexpected regression happen).
Megapod!
1:58
Was awesome! Any chance you do another one for the top 25 trade candidates?
Steve Adams
2:00
Thanks! It was a lot of fun to have Darragh, me, Anthony and Tim all on for the same episode. Glad you enjoyed it. We talked about doing some future editions with all four of us, probably extra-long ones like the Top 50 was. Not sure if that'll be for the Top 25 trade list, but it's possible. Depends on Tim's availability and a whole bunch of other scheduling issues. We have a relatively small team, so getting four of  us on the same podcast takes a bit of scheduling gymnastics haha
2:01
That special edition of our podcast is here, for those who missed it (or for those who've yet to check out the podcast at large):
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/mlbtr-podcast-top-50-free-agent...
MLBTR Fan
2:02
Where can I see your top 50 free agent picks?
Steve Adams
2:03
They'll be on the Top 50 leaderboard when it comes out (you can filter to view MLBTR staff picks). I also emailed them out to our Front Office subscribers with explanations of my thinking on each. I can perhaps go back and add just the basic team-by-team picks for me to the Top 50 post, though. I just wasn't able to get them together in time since the post launched on my first day back from paternity leave
Sox
2:04
what team that missed the playoffs in '23 has the best shot of winning it all in '24?
Steve Adams
2:05
I'd pick the Mariners. Their rotation is so good with Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert up front. Offense needs some work, but their pitching is really enviable.
2:06
Alright, I've got to wrap up. I'm on Twitter / X @Adams_Steve

Sorry for all the questions I couldn't get to, as always. You can consider signing up for our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription, which grants access to a weekly subscriber-only chat where your chances are obviously quite a bit higher. You'll also get weekly email analysis pieces from Anthony and me in your inbox (we're doing a series on potential markets for all the top free agents), ad-free viewing, access to MLBTR's Contract Tracker and Agency Database, and more. It starts at $2.99/month. You can learn more and sign up here:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/membership?ref=chat-11-15-23
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