Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 11/16/21
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Steve Adams
2:06
Greetings all -- happy Tuesday and happy "Hey offseason things are actually happening" day.
We the North
2:06
Likelihood the Jays keep Robbie Ray after the Berrios extension?
Steve Adams
2:08
It doesn't really change the budget for the 2022 season, since Berrios was going to make around $12MM next year anyhow, and the contract will likely be structured to reflect that. It might make things tighter in 2023, but Hyun Jin Ryu is off the books after that season.
2:09
So, broadly speaking, I don't think it necessarily damages their ability to keep Ray. I do wonder whether their interest in pivoting to prioritize an extension of Berrios was in some ways tied to surprise over Ray's early asking price, but that's pure speculation.
Luke
2:09
Reds going into yet another rebuild?
Steve Adams
2:10
It certainly seems as though they're stepping back and cutting payroll. Perhaps they'll try to thread the needle by focusing on some MLB-ready prospects, though. They have more young talent in place than last time they tore down (because they waited too long last time). India, Stephenson, Winker, Barrero, Senzel ... it's a nice group (assuming Winker isn't so close to free agency that they explore moving him, too)
2:11
Greene and Lodolo on the way, pitching-wise. Even if next year's a down year for them, they don't seem to need a 3-4 year rebuilding effort.
Steinbrenner's wallet
2:12
Does Verlander realistically have 2 good years left or would this be Randy Johnson 2.0 in the Bronx?
Steve Adams
2:13
Verlander has said he wants to pitch till he's 45. There's risk in any pitcher coming back from major surgery, and he's 38, but it's Justin Verlander. He won a Cy Young when he was last healthy, showing virtually no signs of decline. If you were asking me to make a bet, I'd bet on more than two good years remaining.
WishfulTwins
2:13
Any chance of the Twins signing any big name SP?
Steve Adams
2:14
They were in on Stroman at the 2019 trade deadline and have made offers in the general neighborhood of where we expect him to sign in the past (offered $100MM+ to both Wheeler and Darvish).

I picked them to sign him for that reason, but I have a harder time seeing them win the bidding on a Ray or Gausman, who I expect to do better in free agency. Liked the Twins as an E-Rod fit, but that's off the board now. Jon Gray seems feasible.
Friedman
2:14
Kimbrel for Bellinger? Who says no? I believe the salaries match
Steve Adams
2:15
They do, more or less, and it's a fun challenge trade. I imagine the Dodgers would rather have Bellinger, who mashed in the playoffs and is controlled through 2023.
Matt
2:16
Do you think the Angels preference for "short term additions" is a good strategy?
Steve Adams
2:16
I understand the general preference to limit the term on pitcher contracts, but I found it alarming when looking back to see the last multi-year deal they signed was Joe Blanton in 2012. It's one thing to prefer short-term pacts -- most teams do -- but to completely eschew any multi-year deal for a pitcher is pretty limiting.
John
2:16
Will the Orioles be spenders next winter?
Steve Adams
2:17
I can see them starting to spend next winter, yes. This winter ... doubt it.
Chris Young
2:17
Does 5/95 land Nick Castellanos?
Steve Adams
2:17
We predicted 5/115 on him, but it's plausible the market pressure only ratchets things up to 95, sure.
King Gusser
2:17
Darkhorse team for Marcus Semien?
Steve Adams
2:19
Tigers? People seem pretty heavy on the Tigers/Correa connection, but it's plenty plausible to me that they prefer not to throw down $400MM+ in their return to offseason spending.

Phillies, Astros, Rangers, Cardinals are all in there. Twins, if you want a longer shot than that, I suppose. They liked him last year, but his stock was lower then and they'd have been buying low as opposed to buying with his value at its apex.
Gord
2:19
Tell me this wouldn’t be an ideal Mariners off-season. 1. Sign Semien for 2B, 2. Sign SP Marcus Stroman 3. Sign SP Alex Wood 4. Sign LHP Aaron Loup, 5. Trade for 3B Matt Chapman.
Steve Adams
2:20
Sounds like a great offseason for a lot of teams. They won't check all five of those boxes, but I don't think any one of them sounds crazy in a vacuum.
Duffy
2:20
Is Yan Gomes going to Miami, or do they swing a trade?
Steve Adams
2:20
Marlins want a young, long-term option behind the plate. Gomes is a solid and underrated catcher, and Manny Pina getting $8MM bodes well for Gomes. But I don't think the Marlins will be key players for him unless they just find the trade asks for young catchers to be egregious
Steven
2:21
Castillo and Suarez to Seattle for Kelenic and Hancock. Who hangs up?
Steve Adams
2:21
Mariners
Jerry Dipoto said like seven days ago "there's no scenario" where he trades the very top prospects in his system. I suppose Kelenic has technically exhausted his "prospect" eligibility, but he's still in that bucket
Zach
2:22
So Syndergaard leaves Mets for 21m instead of 18m over 1 year. What happened to Cohen's deep deep pockets?
Steve Adams
2:24
The Mets also know more about his health than anyone else and have plenty of uncertainty elsewhere in the rotation. Not saying Thor's arm is shot or anything, but the Mets have far more information on the situation than we do and probably aren't as risk-tolerant with deGrom, Carrasco and Peterson coming off injuries and Walker coming off a terrible second half. They could just want more certainty.

Similarly, perhaps Syndergaard just wanted a change of scenery. Or to play alongside Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani -- which is a pretty compelling sell for any free agent the Angels covet.
ooklah the mok
2:24
Is Dombrowski saying Stott should be ready to compete for a starting spot at spring training serious or is he trying to motivate Gregorius..?
Steve Adams
2:26
Stott is a recent first-rounder who raked at three different minor league levels last year. Why wouldn't you tell him to come to camp motivated to win a job?

I don't read those comments as a definitive declaration that the Phils won't add a shortstop or even that they won't trade Stott if the right deal presents itself. But he's earned a legitimate shot to impress, and it never hurts to motivate a kid.
Have to take a phone call, one minute.
Apologies
2:27
Ok
Matt
2:27
How reasonable is it that Braves could actually trade ozuna
Steve Adams
2:27
It's not.
A's
2:28
As a fan, trading Chapman to the Blue Jays would give me strong flashbacks...in a bad way
Steve Adams
2:29
Ha, understandable, but the Donaldson trade was more surprising. JD had more team control and was still more affordable than Chapman is. (Better all-around, too, I'd say)

As an Oakland fan, I would just tell you to brace for a pretty deflating offseason.
fake GM
2:29
Would the Yankees take on Elvis Andrus as a short term SS , if it meant getting 1rst baseman Matt Olson for lesser prospects?
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