Chat With MLBTR's Steve Adams: 11/19/19
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Steve Adams
2:27
Greetings! Starting a little early this week since I fear the incoming deluge of transactions between Tuesday and Wednesday will begin sooner rather than later.

Alternatively, teams may just decide they hate MLBTR and wait until Rule 5 protection deadline day to drown us!

Yes, surely that is their motivation in moving slowly.
Mike
2:28
Who is the first major free agent to sign? When?
Steve Adams
2:29
For once I can definitively answer a question like this!

Will Smith. Last Thursday.

Beyond that, there's really no telling. Reports that Strasburg might sign before the Winter Meetings or Cole might not sign until January aren't really worth much. It all depends when teams make a satisfactory offer and there's no means of putting a timeline on that.
strasmas
2:29
What does Strasburg end up getting this offseason?
Steve Adams
2:30
We put him at 6/180 in our Top 50 free agent rankings, though I could see him getting a bit heartier AAV. Maybe 6/186 or 6/192 or something.
Jason
2:30
How much will Pomeranz get?
Steve Adams
2:31
The thin relief market and his dominance from Aug. through season's end definitely help but I still have a hard time seeing three years. I could see $8-9MM per season on a two-year deal or, I guess, if some team just loves the profile and is willing to gamble against the injury history, maybe $21-22MM over three?
Bang twice for yes
2:31
Would a package centered around Happ & Almora be enough to land Marte?
Steve Adams
2:32
Do I bang once for no?

Almora's stock is at an all-time low and Happ hasn't done much of anything in the Majors. Marte is way more valuable than that.
Sean
2:33
BVW claims he is holding syndegaard but hear me out: noah and nimmo for Ramon Laureano and a prospect. Who is hanging up?
Steve Adams
2:33
You just don't see GMs make on-record comments like that and then go back on them. I'll be stunned if Syndergaard is moved this winter.
J
2:34
Is 2/20 enough to get Moose back to Milwaukee? Would it take something bigger to get him signed before Rendon/Donaldson, or will he wait to let competition drive up the price?
Steve Adams
2:35
With all the struggles he's (inexplicably) had to find a multi-year deal, I wonder if he'd just pounce on 2/20. I think he's better than that, but I thought he was way better than 1/10 last year and 1/6.5 the year before. The first time around, I get, with the QO hanging over him and Boras setting out aiming for the moon.

But last winter, to see him settle for 1/10 ... that was still shocking.

I think Moustakas has done enough to reasonably command three years, but that market hasn't been there for him in previous free agency stints. 2/24 or something in that range may wirk.
Blue jays
2:36
If the pirates do decide to make bell available. Should the jays go after him as they could be contending in 2021?
Steve Adams
2:37
He's only controlled through 2022, will earn huge arbitration salaries and probably won't be an extension candidate (Boras). I don't see giving up a bunch of young talent to get him as a good play for a team in the Jays' spot.

Plus, first base is one of the easiest spots to find production, so paying a premium before you're even ready to contend seems particularly questionable.
Bob Uecker
2:38
Thoughts on the Brewers re-branding?
Steve Adams
2:38
I dig the new jerseys and the slight modifications to the logo. Looks good to me.
Orioles
2:39
What could we get in return for Bundy and or villar? I don’t see Mancini getting traded quite yet
Steve Adams
2:44
Villar's arb price tag and the saturated 2B market mitigate a lot of his value. I'd imagine they can still command some low-level minor league guys with upside -- the type who slide into the back half of a club's top 30 and have some helium potential -- but I don't think he'll have huge value.

Bundy's reduced fastball, home run troubles and waning club control (through 2021) aren't a great recipe for trade value. But the swinging-strike profile is still pretty appealing, and there's not much out there. I'd put his value at less than that of a Jon Gray but still someone with some legitimate marketability.

Also think the O's should be very open to moving Mancini, for what it's worth.
Didi
2:45
Am I almost a lock to be a Red? Doesn't seem to be a lot of SS openings.
Steve Adams
2:46
Nah. Brewers could use an SS, Twins could move Polanco to 2B, Phillies could move Segura to 2B/3B. Marlins make some sense and are apparently going to spend a bit of cash this winter (not that he'd want to sign there necessarily). I think there'll be enough teams who see him as a rare FA opportunity that he'll have a more diverse market than that.
RG
2:47
Can you give a  die hard Detroit Tiger fan any ray of hope ?
Steve Adams
2:47
Lots of interesting pitching prospects filtering up through the system. Casey Mize could pitch in the Majors this season! Yay?
Chris
2:47
Haniger gets traded to who if he's traded this off-season?
Steve Adams
2:48
I don't see the Mariners selling low on him -- particularly with so many corner-OF options available in free agency and elsewhere on the trade market
Padres
2:48
If we were gonna trade Hosmer away, who would be potential sutiors
Steve Adams
2:48
No one is touching that contract.
Plus he still has a full no-trade clause.
Chris
2:49
Will Jerry Dipoto make a small 40 man rule 5 trade or a major "blockbuster" trade tomorrow?
Steve Adams
2:50
I can easily see the Mariners making a small move or two tomorrow. I don't think we'll see many blockbusters from Trader Jerry this winter though -- well.... at least he says we shouldn't expect it. He then immediately joked that it'll probably be hard to take his word for that, ha.

Dipoto and his neverending trade activity make baseball fun. Wish there were more GMs like him.
DavidCNYC
2:51
Red Sox have Dalbec coming up at 3B. Would they trade Devers in order to attach Price and his large salary, and get good prospects back at the same time?
Steve Adams
2:52
If you attach Price to anyone, that other asset's value tanks. And they'd never use someone as good/controllable as Devers just to shed Price's salary.
Dodgers
2:52
Do you see the Dodgers making a serious run at Cole?
Steve Adams
2:53
I imagine they'll treat him similarly to how they treated Harper last winter. Offer a crazy, precedent-shattering AAV on a deal that is half the length Cole is seeking.
WhiteSoxFan33
2:53
If we non-tender Yolmer, who man's 2B until Madrigal gets the call? Do we sign Moustakas and have him DH/backup IF, after Madrigal arrives?
Steve Adams
2:55
Moustakas is going to sign somewhere that he's more assured of playing time -- not a placeholder for a top prospect. The role you just described would be a good fit for someone like Brock Holt, maybe. Or they could just scoop up a Jonathan Schoop or Brian Dozier on the cheap late in the winter. There are way more 2Bs available than spots open, so some veteran guys with name value are going to be left standing in late February.
H.
2:55
You going to see Tool tonight?
Steve Adams
2:56
I no longer live in New York, and the 1200-mile commute from St. Paul to Brooklyn seems ... inconvenient. They'd be a great show to see I'm sure, though.
Middle flinger
2:56
Given the saturated 2B market, what do you think a Sogard contract looks like?
Steve Adams
2:56
A year and a few million bucks (under 5)
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