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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 11/2/21
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Steve Adams
2:29
Greetings all! We're 48 hours from the offseason one way or another! With apologies to the stress it'd cause Braves fans, I'm pulling for a Game 7 just because the drama is so entertaining, ha.
Let's talk offseason and other various baseball topics for the next hour or so.
Jimmy
2:29
Who do you see the Yankees targeting in free agency?
Steve Adams
2:30
It's a little on the nose, but they're just such a good fit for Corey Seager that he's my expected top target for them.
Mets
2:30
Rumors of a Sabean - Coletti - Bochy reunion with the Mets seem to be crickets lately. Anything?
Steve Adams
2:32
Sounds like Sabean voiced interest in the Mets job, it wasn't reciprocated, and he now said he's out. (That's via Deesha Thosar in her appearance on a recent FanGraphs podcast, to be clear).

I do wonder if they'll eventually hire someone who isn't currently with a club to serve as president and help groom a younger GM.
Ryan
2:32
Do you see the Mariners successfully coming away with a top of the market infielder?
Steve Adams
2:33
It's plausible in a way that it has not been in the past. They're my current pick to surprise and sign Kris Bryant.
Bearone48
2:33
Dodgers keep Scherzer?
Steve Adams
2:33
That'll be my pick in our offseason predictions, yeah -- probably on a record-setting deal (AAV-wise).
Nigel
2:33
Carlos Correa to the Tigers makes too much sense -- so why will it not happen?
Steve Adams
2:35
This has been a central debate when Tim Dierkes, Anthony Franco and I have been discussing our Top 50 free agents and predictions. It makes a ton of sense, to be sure, but I'm the skeptic of the group so you chose the right person to ask.

I don't think the speculation would be near as strong were it not for AJ Hinch's presence, and while Hinch will surely have some sway, he's not making the final call and not signing the check. We've also never seen how aggressive Chris Ilitch will spend. Perhaps he'll be every bit as willing to spend as his late father, but they've been in a rebuild during Chris's entire tenure as control person.
2:36
They also need to add pitching -- a need Al Avila called "as important" as a shortstop -- so it seems equally plausible to me that they sign, say, Trevor Story and then add a notable rotation piece.
I do think the Correa fit is plausible and has legitimate legs. I just don't know that it's the lock some people make it out to be because of Correa's former manager being there.
Moving Mize
2:37
As a Tigers fan, I'm not a believer in Mize as an ace. The analytics support that he was not as good as his bottom numbers. If the Tigers wanted to trade him, what could they get? A catcher + otger pieces?
Steve Adams
2:38
They could get an overwhelming amount for him, even if he's not an ace. I think Tigers fans will be disappointed if he's not that, but he could "just" be a strong No. 2 or No. 3 starter and be both a huge piece of the future and a good draft pick at 1-1.
George Hunt
2:38
Do you see the Jays going after any big free agents?
Steve Adams
2:39
At the very least they'll try to keep Ray or Semien. I can see them on plenty of big names, though. They're $50-60MM from their all-time payroll high. They liked Gausman in his previous free-agent stints. They'll need bullpen help, and can afford Raisel Iglesias.
Seager Brothers
2:40
Any chance we end up on the same team?  Maybe in Washington?
Steve Adams
2:43
It's hard for me to see, because the teams that I find to be plausible Corey suitors don't have huge need for Kyle once Corey is in the fold. Nats could make it work, but I don't think they'll spend that aggressively. I've seen speculation about that very scenario with the Rangers.. might be the most plausible destination to make a Seager family reunion take place.
Alex
2:44
The Braves have some guys who are on the cusp — but not yet clear if they're future starters, or just taxi squad frequent fliers. For a pennant-winning team, it can be tough to find time for a tweener! What would you do with Kyle Wright, Touki Toussaint, Kyle Muller, Tucker Davidson, and Drew Waters? Do you play them, trade them, or just burn another option year? (To say nothing of Contreras and Pache, who clearly are going to get another couple of chances!)
Steve Adams
2:46
I don't think you can reasonably keep them all. They'll need the 40-man spot, and at a certain point, with this type of core in place, the expectations are elevated. Wright, Davidson, Muller, etc. could be a part of a package for a more established arm, some more outfield solidity, etc.

Braves have shown in the past they're not just going to seek out deals to add some prospects, but that type of young pitching will be in demand this winter. Twins, Cubs, Angels, D-backs ... lots of teams want to stockpile some affordable young options but maybe aren't in position to be as aggressive as Atlanta currently is with the big league roster.
Gophers N da Hole
2:46
Do the Pirates have an exciting and talented future to look towards?
Steve Adams
2:47
Farm system has gotten a lot better under Cherington. I love Ke'Bryan Hayes. Bryan Reynolds is good. Lots of interesting young arms, perhaps headlined by Quinn Priester. They got tons of praise for their '21 draft.
Long-term, yes. In 2022? No, it's going to be another really rough year.
The Matts
2:48
Are the A’s trading us?
Steve Adams
2:48
A few months ago I was thinking the A's would trade one or two of Chapman, Olson, Manaea, Bassitt and Montas.

I'm increasingly thinking that was a little too cautious of a prediction.
2:49
I don't think A's fans are going to care for how this offseason plays out, suffice it to say.
Jon Gray
2:49
Is LAD my top suitor?
Steve Adams
2:51
I'd expect they'll be in on him, as a guy they think holds untapped potential with some help from expanding and improving the information/data available to him.

That said, I think most teams are going to view Gray as an untapped upside play and pretty aggressively pursue him. He'll sign a contract that'll make some people who aren't very familiar with him look at his career numbers and say, "Huh??"
Dodgers, Giants, Cubs, Red Sox, Twins, Yankees, Astros, Angels, Blue Jays, Mariners ... I think there are more teams who'll be "in" on Gray than not, and I wouldn't call anyone any kind of favorite right now.
Bryan Reynolds
2:53
What happened here? He was a 45ish FV prospect on most counts, which is solid, but not 5.0+ WAR superstar. How does a guy make that jump as an MLB guy?
Steve Adams
2:55
It's not that uncommon. Scouting is an inexact science, and players can rapidly improve their outlook by making a change in their approach, adding/subtracting a pitch, changing an arm angle, etc. etc. etc. Player development is a never-ending process.

Even just looking at this year's WAR leaderboard at FanGraphs... Semien, Cedric Mullins, Max Muncy, Jose Ramirez... none of these guys were "supposed" to be superstars.

I haven't spent tons of time delving into Reynolds' specific breakout, but he's yet another reminder that FVs and Top 100 lists are good tools, but they're a quick snapshot in time. Opinions and outlooks/projections can change so quickly when you're talking about prospects.
Colton
2:56
Besides Correa, who do you think will dominate headlines in free agency this off season?
Steve Adams
2:57
Correa and Seager are the clear top two in terms of earning power. Max Scherzer will draw tons of headlines, though, as the highest-profile pitcher in the game in search of a record contract.

And outfielder Seiya Suzuki might be the best player in Japan at the moment. If he's posted, his free agency will be a big story to track.
Cardy Bee
2:57
Cards trade for Glasnow with an eye on him replacing Wainwright in 2023?
Steve Adams
2:58
While I think the Cardinals are certainly a candidate to do something like that, I also think that's true of as many as 10-15 teams. A lot of teams are going to have that same idea, and the Rays will have to be open to it.
GM Click
2:58
I have the perfect deal for Correa, do you think he would take it?  It would be 7/225 with $40/per for years 1-2, and $29/per afterwards.  Years 5-7 are all player options and no trade protection throughout.
Steve Adams
2:58
I think Correa will get a guarantee north of $300MM, so no, I don't think he'd take 7/225 even if it was front-loaded with opt out options.
Lily
2:58
Will the Mets bring back Stroman?
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